Fuel Origin

Slovenia · What moved my fuel price?

Petrol and diesel prices in Slovenia

What a litre costs at the pump, what it costs before tax, and what moved between two weeks. Prices are published weekly; a week the publisher skipped is left as a gap.

What moved the price across this window

The change in the pump price, split into the parts that make it up. Each bar is the movement of one component between the first and last week we hold in the window.

Between 2025-09-22 and 2026-09-21 (52 weeks apart). These are the weeks we actually hold, which may differ from the dates requested.

Pump price change = VAT + excise + other specific taxes + pre-tax price
VAT+0.0448Excise duty-0.0842Other specific taxes0.0000Pre-tax price+0.3653Pump price change+0.2483
ComponentChange (EUR/L)Share of pump moveTypeWhat the value is
VAT+0.0447818.0%CalculatedVAT extracted from the observed pump price at the published rate, differenced between the two endpoint weeks.
Excise duty-0.08418-33.9%CalculatedExcise per litre from the tax table, differenced between the two endpoint weeks.
Other specific taxes0.000000.0%CalculatedOther specific per-litre levies from the tax table, differenced between the two endpoint weeks.
Pre-tax price+0.36530147.1%CalculatedPublished pre-tax price, differenced between the two endpoint weeks. Broken down further below.
Pump price change+0.24833100.0%CalculatedReported by the API as the total move. It is not the sum of the bars above; where the two differ, the difference is drawn as its own bar.
Pre-tax price change = input-cost proxy + unmodelled
Input-cost proxy+0.2625UNMODELLED+0.1028Pre-tax price change+0.3653
ComponentChange (EUR/L)Share of pump moveTypeWhat the value is
Input-cost proxy+0.26249105.7%CalculatedBrent converted to euro per litre at the reference rate of each quote day, differenced between the two endpoint weeks. Refinery yield is not modelled.
UNMODELLED+0.1028141.4%CalculatedThe part of the pre-tax move the proxy does not account for. It is differenced like any other component and is never distributed across them. Nothing here says what is inside it.
Pre-tax price change+0.36530147.1%CalculatedReported by the API as the total move. It is not the sum of the bars above; where the two differ, the difference is drawn as its own bar.

One component moved by more than the whole pump price did, so another moved against it. Shares are arithmetic on two stored differences and can exceed 100% or go negative; they are not a statement about cause.

Pump identity check
0.00000 EUR/L

Pump change minus the four components above. Returned by the API so it can be checked rather than trusted.

Pre-tax identity check
0.00000 EUR/L

Pre-tax change minus the proxy and the residual.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Calculated
Period 2025-09-22..2026-09-21 (week)Updated 2026-09-26 06:54 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV

Plain differences between the two endpoint weeks. The residual is reported as it moved and is not distributed across the other components; nothing here says what caused any of it.

Shares are arithmetic on two stored differences. They can exceed 100% or go negative when components move against each other, and they are not an attribution of cause.

Petrol (Euro-super 95) - with tax and without tax

Both lines are published figures. The gap between them is the tax; it is broken down below.

2026-03-162026-09-210.00.51.01.52.0EUR / litre
  • Pump price, with tax(official)
  • Pump price, without tax(official)
  • Brent (EUR per litre)(calculated)
Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Official
Period 2025-09-22..2026-09-21 (week)Updated 2026-09-26 06:54 UTCConfidenceOfficialMethodologyDownload CSV

The pre-tax price is the part that moves with crude, refining and transport costs. Excise duty is a fixed amount per litre, so it makes up a larger share when fuel is cheap.

Brent is plotted in euro per litre on the same axis as the pump prices, never on a second scale: two y-axes would invent a relationship by choosing where they line up.

What the latest week's price is made of

The most recent week in this window, split into tax and pre-tax, and then into the part the input cost explains and the part it does not.

Pump price, week 2026-09-21 partly decomposed1.706 EUR / litre
Pre-tax priceOfficial
0.9590 EUR/L56.2% of the pump price

Published by the source as the price without taxes.

Excise dutyOfficial
0.4176 EUR/L24.5% of the pump price

Excise per litre, from the tax table row in force for this week.

Other specific taxesOfficial
0.0997 EUR/L5.8% of the pump price

Other specific per-litre levies, from the tax table row in force for this week.

VATOfficial
0.3077 EUR/L18.0% of the pump price

Extracted from the observed pump price at the published rate.

Components do not reach the pump priceUnknown
0.0776 EUR/L4.5% of the pump price

The amount by which the four segments do not add up to the published pump price. Shown rather than absorbed into a segment.

Inside the pre-tax price0.9590 EUR/L = input-cost proxy + unmodelled

Input-cost proxyCalculated
0.6331 EUR/L37.1% of the pump price

Brent (EIA) USD/bbl, ECB EUR/USD reference rate of the same day, divided by 158.987294928 L/bbl (definitional, no density). Mean of 2 quote day(s) in 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22. Refinery yield factor 1.0 and NOT modelled.

UNMODELLEDCalculated
0.3259 EUR/L19.1% of the pump price

The part of the pre-tax price the proxy does not account for. Nothing here says what is inside it.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Calculated
Period 2025-09-22..2026-09-21 (week)Updated 2026-09-26 06:54 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV

How the input-cost proxy was built: Brent (EIA) USD/bbl, ECB EUR/USD reference rate of the same day, divided by 158.987294928 L/bbl (definitional, no density). Mean of 2 quote day(s) in 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22. Refinery yield factor 1.0 and NOT modelled.

How long Brent takes to reach the pump

The delay at which changes in Brent line up best with changes in this country's pre-tax price, measured over the whole sample we hold.

Historically, changes in Brent have been reflected in Slovenia's pre-tax petrol (euro-super 95) price with a median lag of 3 weeks (90% CI 2 to 3 weeks, r = 0.42, n = 1,084 weeks).

How this was measuredCalculated
Sample 2005-01-03 to 2026-09-14

This says the two series moved together with this much delay over this sample. It does not say that one caused the other. Correlation at each lag from 0 weeks: 0.101, 0.100, 0.367, 0.417, 0.279, 0.136, 0.082, 0.043, 0.057. The bootstrap seed is fixed (20260922), so this interval reproduces exactly.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Calculated
Updated 2026-09-23 12:25 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyno download for this view

How the pump price follows crude: rises vs falls

How much of a 1 c/L move in the crude input cost had reached the pre-tax pump price after a given number of weeks, estimated separately for moves up and moves down, over two samples.

Pass-through is measured separately for weeks when the crude input cost rose and weeks when it fell, over two samples. Both are shown: the recent window and the whole history we hold are different samples and can give different answers. The figures describe how the petrol (euro-super 95) price and the input cost moved together. They say nothing about why.

Latest three-year window

2023-09-25 to 2026-09-14

-0.450.100.661.211.76same week1 week2 weeks3 weeks4 weeksweeks after the movec/L per 1 c/L moveAfter a rise in the input cost, same week: 0.15After a rise in the input cost, 1 week(s): 0.22After a rise in the input cost, 2 week(s): 0.54After a rise in the input cost, 3 week(s): 0.95After a rise in the input cost, 4 week(s): 1.26After a fall in the input cost, same week: 0.06After a fall in the input cost, 1 week(s): -0.04After a fall in the input cost, 2 week(s): 0.21After a fall in the input cost, 3 week(s): 0.31After a fall in the input cost, 4 week(s): 0.26
  • After a rise in the input cost
  • After a fall in the input cost
  • Shaded band: the 90% interval published with each estimate.
Cumulative response within 4 weeks, per 1 c/L move in the crude input cost.
Move in the input costPre-tax priceInterval
1 c/L rise1.26 c/L90% CI 0.92 to 1.61 c/L
1 c/L fall0.26 c/L90% CI -0.10 to 0.62 c/L

p = 0.002 against alpha 0.05, survives false-discovery correction (q = 0.019 against 0.10).

Full sample

2005-01-03 to 2026-09-14

-0.300.080.470.851.24same week1 week2 weeks3 weeks4 weeksweeks after the movec/L per 1 c/L moveAfter a rise in the input cost, same week: 0.06After a rise in the input cost, 1 week(s): 0.10After a rise in the input cost, 2 week(s): 0.37After a rise in the input cost, 3 week(s): 0.69After a rise in the input cost, 4 week(s): 0.91After a fall in the input cost, same week: 0.06After a fall in the input cost, 1 week(s): -0.06After a fall in the input cost, 2 week(s): 0.20After a fall in the input cost, 3 week(s): 0.50After a fall in the input cost, 4 week(s): 0.70
  • After a rise in the input cost
  • After a fall in the input cost
  • Shaded band: the 90% interval published with each estimate.
Cumulative response within 4 weeks, per 1 c/L move in the crude input cost.
Move in the input costPre-tax priceInterval
1 c/L rise0.91 c/L90% CI 0.69 to 1.13 c/L
1 c/L fall0.70 c/L90% CI 0.45 to 0.94 c/L

p = 0.392 against alpha 0.05, does not survive false-discovery correction (q = 0.449 against 0.10).

What the statement engine wrote

  • In Slovenia, a 1 c/L rise in the crude input cost was followed within 4 weeks by a 1.26 c/L rise in the pre-tax petrol price (90% CI 0.92 to 1.61 c/L); a 1 c/L fall by a 0.26 c/L fall (90% CI -0.10 to 0.62 c/L). The difference is statistically distinguishable at the published 5% per-country threshold (p = 0.002); it survives a false-discovery correction across all 23 country-fuel pairs tested over the same window, q = 0.019. Estimated over 2023-09-25 to 2026-09-14, 156 weekly observations.

    Latest three-year windowCalculated

  • In Slovenia, a 1 c/L rise in the crude input cost was followed within 4 weeks by a 0.91 c/L rise in the pre-tax petrol price (90% CI 0.69 to 1.13 c/L); a 1 c/L fall by a 0.70 c/L fall (90% CI 0.45 to 0.94 c/L). The difference is not statistically distinguishable at the published 5% per-country threshold (p = 0.392): no asymmetry is detected at that level in this sample, which is not the same as finding the response symmetric. Estimated over 2005-01-03 to 2026-09-14, 1084 weekly observations.

    Full sampleCalculated

Each sentence is rendered from a fixed template against the stored estimate. None of it is written by a language model, and none of it states a cause.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Calculated
Updated 2026-09-25 14:13 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyno download for this view

The estimate says how the two series moved together over each window. It is not a causal estimate, and a difference between the two directions is reported only where the stored test found one. Where a window has no estimate, the reason the check stopped is printed and nothing is substituted for the missing coefficients.

Actual vs crude-only

What the pre-tax price actually did across this window, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed and strength the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude.

2026-03-232026-09-21-50050100150c/L since the anchor week
  • Actual pre-tax change(official prices)
  • What crude alone would have done(calculated, with range)
  • Shaded: not explained by crude(not attributed to any cause)

Changes are measured from the bulletin week of 2025-09-29. Crude response taken from the stored pass-through estimate over the most recent three-year window (2023-09-25 to 2026-09-14). The light band is a conservative range, not a 90% interval. The shaded area is not explained by crude: refining margins, freight, retail margins and model error are all inside it, and none is named as its cause.

  • Over the 51 weeks after the bulletin week of 2025-09-29, crude costs alone would have moved Slovenia's pre-tax petrol price by +80.3 c/L (range +31.9–+128.8); it actually moved +36.3 c/L, leaving -44.0 c/L not explained by crude.
Source
several sources (see each row)Calculated
Period 2025-09-29..2026-09-21 (week)Updated 2026-09-26 06:54 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyno download for this view

The expected path uses only the measured short-run response to crude. It is a description of how the two series usually move together, fitted on a sample that may include this window - not a forecast and not a causal estimate. Where no pass-through estimate exists the path is UNKNOWN and nothing is substituted.

US gasoline crack spread (proxy)

A US product spot price minus Brent. Shown because European product benchmarks are not licensed for redistribution; it is a proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market and not a European price or margin.

US proxy — not a European price

2026-03-262026-09-22-20020406080USD / barrel
US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel (US proxy — not a European price). It reflects US product specifications and US market conditions, and it is not a measure of European refining margins.
Source
several sources (see each row)Calculated
Period 2025-09-29..2026-09-22 (day)Updated 2026-09-25 07:00 UTCConfidenceLowMethodologyno download for this view

Tax rates in force

The excise, carbon and VAT rates the publisher recorded for this fuel, with the dates they apply from.

FromToExcise (EUR/L)Carbon (EUR/L)Other (EUR/L)VATType
2026-06-16open0.4176not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2026-06-02opennot publishednot published0.0997not publishedOfficial
2026-05-122026-06-150.4263not published0.0883not publishedOfficial
2026-03-242026-05-110.4746not published0.0287not publishedOfficial
2026-03-162026-03-230.4746not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2025-12-162026-03-150.4993not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2025-11-182025-12-150.4870not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2025-08-262025-11-170.5018not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2025-07-012025-08-250.4969not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2024-09-242026-03-23not publishednot published0.0997not publishedOfficial
2024-09-102025-06-300.4969not published0.0990not publishedOfficial
2024-07-302024-09-090.4759not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2024-03-122024-07-290.4582not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2023-12-052024-03-110.4605not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2023-10-242023-12-040.4905not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2023-10-102023-10-230.4557not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2023-08-172023-10-090.4135not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2023-07-042024-09-090.4303not published0.0685not publishedOfficial
2023-05-092023-07-03not publishednot published0.0064not publishedOfficial
2023-04-252023-07-030.4116not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2023-03-282023-04-240.3877not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2023-02-142023-03-270.3790not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2023-01-232023-05-08not publishednot published0.0026not publishedOfficial
2022-09-132023-02-130.3590not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2022-08-292023-01-22not publishednot published0.0262not publishedOfficial
2022-08-022022-08-28not publishednot published0.0538not publishedOfficial
2022-07-012022-08-01not publishednot published0.0143not publishedOfficial
2022-06-212022-06-30not publishednot published0.0229not publishedOfficial
2022-02-012022-09-120.3590not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2020-09-222022-01-310.3770not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2020-09-082020-09-210.3684not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2020-08-252020-09-070.3721not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2020-08-112020-08-240.3880not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2020-07-282020-08-100.3805not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2020-07-142020-07-270.3799not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2020-06-302020-07-130.3851not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2020-06-162020-06-290.4133not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2020-06-022020-06-150.4356not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2020-05-192020-06-010.4731not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2020-05-052020-05-180.5142not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2020-04-212020-05-040.5022not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2020-04-072020-04-200.5109not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2018-05-222020-04-060.4783not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2017-01-032022-06-20not publishednot published0.0685not publishedOfficial
2016-04-012017-01-02not publishednot published0.0559not publishedOfficial
2016-02-022018-05-210.5078not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2016-01-052016-03-31not publishednot published0.0576not publishedOfficial
2015-08-042016-02-010.5038not published0.0566not publishedOfficial
2015-06-232015-08-030.4861not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2015-06-092015-06-220.4935not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2015-03-172015-06-080.5031not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2015-03-032015-03-160.5152not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2015-02-172015-03-020.5381not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2015-01-062015-08-030.5543not published0.0566not publishedOfficial
2014-12-232015-01-050.5639not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2014-12-092015-01-05not publishednot published0.0468not publishedOfficial
2014-11-112014-12-08not publishednot published0.0459not publishedOfficial
2014-10-282014-12-220.5534not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2014-10-142014-11-100.5216not published0.0450not publishedOfficial
2014-09-302014-10-130.5141not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2014-09-022014-10-13not publishednot published0.0446not publishedOfficial
2014-08-052014-09-01not publishednot published0.0431not publishedOfficial
2014-07-082014-09-290.5041not published0.0422not publishedOfficial
2014-06-242014-07-070.5150not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2014-06-102014-07-07not publishednot published0.0413not publishedOfficial
2014-04-152014-06-230.5245not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2013-09-032014-04-140.5142not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2013-08-062013-09-020.5213not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2013-07-232013-08-050.5116not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2013-07-01opennot publishednot publishednot published22.0%Official
2013-05-282013-07-220.5314not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2013-04-162013-05-270.5450not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2013-02-192013-04-150.5274not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2013-01-082014-06-09not publishednot published0.0386not publishedOfficial
2012-12-112013-02-180.5459not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2012-10-022012-12-100.5417not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2012-09-182012-10-010.5152not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2012-07-102013-01-07not publishednot published0.0340not publishedOfficial
2012-06-122012-09-170.5024not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2012-05-292012-06-110.4970not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2011-11-292012-05-280.4907not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2011-11-152011-11-280.4757not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2011-11-032011-11-140.4625not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2011-10-042011-11-020.4595not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2011-09-202011-10-030.4148not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2011-09-062011-09-190.4209not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2011-08-232011-09-050.4424not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2011-08-092011-08-220.4107not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2011-07-262011-08-080.3976not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2011-05-172011-07-250.4171not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2011-04-192011-05-160.4064not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2011-03-082011-04-180.4299not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2011-02-222011-03-070.4650not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2011-02-082011-02-210.4829not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2011-01-252011-02-070.4570not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2010-12-142011-01-240.4780not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2010-10-192010-12-130.4982not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2010-10-052010-10-180.5127not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2010-09-212010-10-040.4917not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2010-07-272010-09-200.4995not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2010-07-132010-07-260.4945not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2010-06-152010-07-120.4845not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2010-06-012010-06-140.4795not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2010-05-182010-05-310.4745not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2010-03-092010-05-170.4695not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2010-02-102012-07-09not publishednot published0.0040not publishedOfficial
2009-07-142010-03-080.4895not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2009-03-102009-07-130.4621not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2009-01-132009-03-090.4590not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2008-12-302009-01-120.4026not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2008-09-252010-02-09not publishednot published0.0000not publishedOfficial
2007-09-112008-12-290.3590not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2007-01-042007-09-100.0017not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2007-01-012007-01-030.0017not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2006-09-262006-12-310.4001not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2006-08-292006-09-250.3792not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2005-07-052006-08-280.3600not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2005-06-212005-07-040.3666not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2005-06-072005-06-200.3739not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2005-05-242005-06-060.3857not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2005-05-102005-05-230.3681not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2005-03-302005-05-090.3665not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2005-03-152005-03-290.3735not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2005-02-012005-03-140.3845not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2005-01-182005-01-310.3939not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2005-01-042005-01-170.4067not publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2004-12-212005-01-03not publishednot publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2004-11-232004-12-20not publishednot publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2004-11-092004-11-22not publishednot publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2004-10-122004-11-08not publishednot publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2004-09-282004-10-11not publishednot publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2004-09-142004-09-27not publishednot publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2004-07-062004-09-13not publishednot publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2004-06-222004-07-05not publishednot publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2004-05-112004-06-21not publishednot publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2004-04-272004-05-10not publishednot publishednot publishednot publishedOfficial
2002-01-012013-06-30not publishednot publishednot published20.0%Official
Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Official
Updated 2026-09-23 07:24 UTCConfidenceOfficialMethodologyDownload CSV

What this page does not show

  • No cause is attributed to any movement. The page shows what moved and in what order, not why.
  • The residual is the part the input-cost proxy does not account for. Refinery yield, wholesale margin, freight and inventory are inside it and are not modelled separately, which is why it is labelled UNMODELLED rather than named.
  • Pass-through above describes how the pre-tax price and the input cost moved together over each window. It is not a causal estimate, and a window with no estimate is a window where the test did not clear - not a finding that the relationship is absent.