Fuel Origin

Events / Tax change

Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022

Dates
2022-06-01 → 2022-08-31
Dated to
the day
Status
Ended
Scope
Germany

What the sources said

Energiesteuersenkungsgesetz (Gesetz zur Aenderung des Energiesteuerrechts zur temporaeren Absenkung der Energiesteuer fuer Kraftstoffe) of 24 May 2022, BGBl. I 2022 p. 810. The Bundestag record of 19 May 2022 states the reduction ran from 1 June to 31 August 2022 and cut the energy-tax rate by 29.55 ct/litre on Benzin and by 14.04 ct/litre on Dieselkraftstoff. The same change is present in the primary tax series this project already holds: the tax rates taken from the European Commission Weekly Oil Bulletin duties and taxes file record German excise on Euro-super 95 petrol at 0.6545 EUR/litre before, 0.3590 EUR/litre effective 2022-06-01 and 0.6545 EUR/litre again effective 2022-08-31, and on diesel at 0.4704, then 0.3300, then 0.4704 EUR/litre on the same dates. The two records agree to the cent. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about how the change reached pump prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official
Retrieved 2026-09-25 14:07 UTCRevision 2
Source documents (3)
CountryCountryGermanyFranceNetherlandsPolandFinlandEstoniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSweden
FuelFuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Ireland, Diesel (automotive gas oil). 16 series can be drawn; 4 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

208 published readings, 0 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 52 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+90132.895.82022-04-29: 108.4 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 110.0 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 116.4 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 121.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 125.5 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 122.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 125.7 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 129.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 125.0 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 119.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 111.5 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 99.34 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-29108.4-13.840-11.33%-2.53
−142022-05-18110.0-12.160-9.95%-2.22
−72022-05-25116.4-5.790-4.74%-1.06
−32022-05-27121.2-1.010-0.83%-0.18
−12022-05-31125.5+3.330+2.73%+0.61
T02022-06-01same print as T0122.20.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T0122.20.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-03125.7+3.480+2.85%+0.64
+72022-06-08129.2+7.000+5.73%+1.28
+142022-06-15125.0+2.760+2.26%+0.50
+302022-07-01119.2-2.990-2.45%-0.55
+602022-07-29111.5-10.690-8.75%-1.95
+902022-08-3099.34-22.860-18.71%-4.18

One volatility unit for this series is 4.48%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (764 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+90291,594214,1032022-05-01: 242,534 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 250,137 tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 221,602 tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 284,095 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-01242,534-7,603-3.04%-0.10
−142022-05-01242,534-7,603-3.04%-0.10
−72022-05-01242,534-7,603-3.04%-0.10
−32022-05-01242,534-7,603-3.04%-0.10
−12022-05-01242,534-7,603-3.04%-0.10
T02022-06-01same print as T0250,1370.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T0250,1370.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-01same print as T0250,1370.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-01same print as T0250,1370.0000.00%0.00
+142022-06-01same print as T0250,1370.0000.00%0.00
+302022-07-01221,602-28,535-11.41%-0.36
+602022-07-01221,602-28,535-11.41%-0.36
+902022-08-01284,095+33,958+13.58%+0.43

One volatility unit for this series is 31.90%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+901.2821.0232022-05-02: 1.048 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.093 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.113 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.143 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.171 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.205 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.251 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.257 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.255 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.048-0.095-8.32%-0.02
−142022-05-161.093-0.050-4.39%-0.01
−72022-05-231.113-0.030-2.65%-0.01
−32022-05-231.113-0.030-2.65%-0.01
−12022-05-30same print as T01.1430.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.1430.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.1430.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.1430.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.171+0.028+2.45%+0.01
+142022-06-131.205+0.062+5.39%+0.01
+302022-06-271.251+0.108+9.49%+0.02
+602022-07-251.257+0.114+9.97%+0.02
+902022-08-291.255+0.112+9.83%+0.02

One volatility unit for this series is 433.03%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0820.9952022-05-02: 1.052 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 1.052 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 1.066 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 1.072 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 1.071 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 1.071 US dollars per euro, used for offsets T02022-06-02: 1.069 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +12022-06-03: 1.073 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 1.074 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 1.043 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 1.043 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 1.020 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 1.003 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.052-0.019-1.76%-4.20
−142022-05-181.052-0.019-1.76%-4.23
−72022-05-251.066-0.006-0.52%-1.25
−32022-05-271.072+0.001+0.09%+0.22
−12022-05-311.071+0.000+0.01%+0.02
T02022-06-01same print as T01.0710.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-021.069-0.002-0.19%-0.45
+32022-06-031.073+0.002+0.17%+0.40
+72022-06-081.074+0.003+0.25%+0.60
+142022-06-151.043-0.028-2.62%-6.28
+302022-07-011.043-0.029-2.68%-6.42
+602022-07-291.020-0.051-4.80%-11.50
+902022-08-301.003-0.068-6.33%-15.16

One volatility unit for this series is 0.42%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (770 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0000.0002022-05-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−142022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−72022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−32022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−12022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
T02022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+142022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+302022-07-0100.000not publishednot published
+602022-07-0100.000not publishednot published
+902022-08-0100.000not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0000.0002022-05-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−142022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−72022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−32022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−12022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
T02022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+142022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+302022-07-0100.000not publishednot published
+602022-07-0100.000not publishednot published
+902022-08-0100.000not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+9081.3677.642022-05-01: 80.00 days of cover, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 78.00 days of cover, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 79.00 days of cover, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 81.00 days of cover, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-0180.00+2.000+2.56%+0.45
−142022-05-0180.00+2.000+2.56%+0.45
−72022-05-0180.00+2.000+2.56%+0.45
−32022-05-0180.00+2.000+2.56%+0.45
−12022-05-0180.00+2.000+2.56%+0.45
T02022-06-01same print as T078.000.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T078.000.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-01same print as T078.000.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-01same print as T078.000.0000.00%0.00
+142022-06-01same print as T078.000.0000.00%0.00
+302022-07-0179.00+1.000+1.28%+0.23
+602022-07-0179.00+1.000+1.28%+0.23
+902022-08-0181.00+3.000+3.85%+0.68

One volatility unit for this series is 5.69%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+900.7720.5802022-05-02: 0.6576 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.6754 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.6922 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.7275 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.7496 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.7533 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.7214 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.6761 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.5990 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.6576-0.070-9.62%-1.20
−142022-05-160.6754-0.052-7.17%-0.90
−72022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−32022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.7496+0.022+3.04%+0.38
+142022-06-130.7533+0.026+3.54%+0.44
+302022-06-270.7214-0.006-0.84%-0.11
+602022-07-250.6761-0.051-7.07%-0.88
+902022-08-290.5990-0.129-17.67%-2.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.00%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901,837,0541,704,4962022-05-01: 1,718,373 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 1,717,324 tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 1,771,248 tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 1,824,226 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-011,718,373+1,049+0.06%+0.01
−142022-05-011,718,373+1,049+0.06%+0.01
−72022-05-011,718,373+1,049+0.06%+0.01
−32022-05-011,718,373+1,049+0.06%+0.01
−12022-05-011,718,373+1,049+0.06%+0.01
T02022-06-01same print as T01,717,3240.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T01,717,3240.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-01same print as T01,717,3240.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-01same print as T01,717,3240.0000.00%0.00
+142022-06-01same print as T01,717,3240.0000.00%0.00
+302022-07-011,771,248+53,924+3.14%+0.76
+602022-07-011,771,248+53,924+3.14%+0.76
+902022-08-011,824,226+106,902+6.22%+1.51

One volatility unit for this series is 4.13%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+900.096-0.1622022-05-02: 0.0707 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.0665 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.0350 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.0046 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.0440 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.0704 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: -0.0489 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: -0.1368 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.0707+0.071not publishednot published
−142022-05-160.0665+0.066not publishednot published
−72022-05-230.0350+0.035not publishednot published
−32022-05-230.0350+0.035not publishednot published
−12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-060.0046+0.005not publishednot published
+142022-06-130.0440+0.044not publishednot published
+302022-06-270.0704+0.070not publishednot published
+602022-07-25-0.0489-0.049not publishednot published
+902022-08-29-0.1368-0.137not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+902.1791.8692022-05-02: 1.899 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.949 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.935 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.929 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.969 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 2.059 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 2.149 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 2.009 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.899 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.899-0.030-1.56%-1.09
−142022-05-161.949+0.020+1.04%+0.73
−72022-05-231.935+0.006+0.30%+0.21
−32022-05-231.935+0.006+0.30%+0.21
−12022-05-30same print as T01.9290.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.9290.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.9290.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.9290.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.969+0.040+2.07%+1.46
+142022-06-132.059+0.130+6.74%+4.74
+302022-06-272.149+0.220+11.40%+8.03
+602022-07-252.009+0.080+4.15%+2.92
+902022-08-291.899-0.030-1.56%-1.09

One volatility unit for this series is 1.42%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901.3461.0942022-05-02: 1.119 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.159 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.148 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.143 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.175 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.249 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.322 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.208 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.119 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.119-0.024-2.13%-0.73
−142022-05-161.159+0.016+1.42%+0.49
−72022-05-231.148+0.005+0.41%+0.14
−32022-05-231.148+0.005+0.41%+0.14
−12022-05-30same print as T01.1430.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.1430.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.1430.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.1430.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.175+0.033+2.85%+0.97
+142022-06-131.249+0.106+9.25%+3.16
+302022-06-271.322+0.179+15.65%+5.34
+602022-07-251.208+0.065+5.69%+1.94
+902022-08-291.119-0.024-2.13%-0.73

One volatility unit for this series is 2.93%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+900.8330.7752022-05-02: 0.7805 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.7898 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.7872 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.7861 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.7936 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.8104 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.8272 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.8011 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.7805 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.7805-0.006-0.71%-0.59
−142022-05-160.7898+0.004+0.48%+0.39
−72022-05-230.7872+0.001+0.13%+0.11
−32022-05-230.7872+0.001+0.13%+0.11
−12022-05-30same print as T00.78610.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.78610.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.78610.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.78610.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.7936+0.007+0.95%+0.78
+142022-06-130.8104+0.024+3.09%+2.54
+302022-06-270.8272+0.041+5.23%+4.29
+602022-07-250.8011+0.015+1.90%+1.56
+902022-08-290.7805-0.006-0.71%-0.59

One volatility unit for this series is 1.22%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+9091.3534.482022-04-29: 85.85 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 74.63 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 54.28 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 47.73 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 42.22 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 55.80 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 60.04 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 55.39 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 67.36 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 49.88 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 39.98 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 60.97 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2985.85+30.052+53.86%+5.76
−142022-05-1874.63+18.838+33.76%+3.61
−72022-05-2554.28-1.518-2.72%-0.29
−32022-05-2747.73-8.062-14.45%-1.55
−12022-05-3142.22-13.578-24.34%-2.60
T02022-06-01same print as T055.800.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T055.800.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0360.04+4.248+7.61%+0.81
+72022-06-0855.39-0.406-0.73%-0.08
+142022-06-1567.36+11.562+20.72%+2.22
+302022-07-0149.88-5.914-10.60%-1.13
+602022-07-2939.98-15.812-28.34%-3.03
+902022-08-3060.97+5.178+9.28%+0.99

One volatility unit for this series is 9.34%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+9069.569.002022-04-29: 35.83 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 48.89 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 47.31 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 51.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 47.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 57.64 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 63.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 54.93 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 40.73 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 40.89 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 30.91 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 14.86 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2935.83-21.818-37.85%-0.21
−142022-05-1848.89-8.756-15.19%-0.08
−72022-05-2547.31-10.338-17.93%-0.10
−32022-05-2751.09-6.550-11.36%-0.06
−12022-05-3147.09-10.554-18.31%-0.10
T02022-06-01same print as T057.640.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T057.640.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0363.70+6.054+10.50%+0.06
+72022-06-0854.93-2.716-4.71%-0.03
+142022-06-1540.73-16.914-29.34%-0.16
+302022-07-0140.89-16.750-29.06%-0.16
+602022-07-2930.91-26.732-46.37%-0.26
+902022-08-3014.86-42.786-74.22%-0.41

One volatility unit for this series is 181.24%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+9087.9225.322022-04-29: 81.86 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 35.78 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 40.71 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 40.59 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 34.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 42.99 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 46.69 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 42.16 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 56.44 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 39.51 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 31.37 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 49.63 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2981.86+38.872+90.43%+0.52
−142022-05-1835.78-7.202-16.75%-0.10
−72022-05-2540.71-2.274-5.29%-0.03
−32022-05-2740.59-2.392-5.56%-0.03
−12022-05-3134.70-8.286-19.28%-0.11
T02022-06-01same print as T042.990.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T042.990.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0346.69+3.702+8.61%+0.05
+72022-06-0842.16-0.826-1.92%-0.01
+142022-06-1556.44+13.452+31.29%+0.18
+302022-07-0139.51-3.478-8.09%-0.05
+602022-07-2931.37-11.612-27.01%-0.15
+902022-08-3049.63+6.648+15.47%+0.09

One volatility unit for this series is 175.17%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Unknown
Period 2022-04-29Updated 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCConfidenceUnknownMethodologyDownload CSV

T0 is 2022-06-01. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022 really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, each with its status and one published figure.
DimensionStatusPublished figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Observed
0 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Observed
0 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.Observed
79.00 days of cover at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)+1.28% from the level at T0 = +0.23 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.Observed
119.2 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)-2.45% from the level at T0 = -0.55 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.UnavailableEU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.UnavailableNo published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.UnavailableTanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.Observed
1,771,248 tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)+3.14% from the level at T0 = +0.76 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.UnavailableWholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.Observed
1.322 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-06-27)+15.65% from the level at T0 = +5.34 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.Observed
2.149 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-06-27)+11.40% from the level at T0 = +8.03 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2022-05-25 to 2022-07-01 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Ireland, diesel (automotive gas oil)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/de-tankrabatt-2022/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'de-tankrabatt-2022' and country 'ireland'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

  1. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Ireland's pre-tax petrol price moved +4.3%, which is 1.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.17987
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    4.497353318381156
    t0_value
    1.13109
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    4.312654165451029
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.5437043758660844
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.048780000000000046
    change_pct_from_t0
    4.312654165451029
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.7937046968798316
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.5437043758660844
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.17987
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    4.497353318381156
    t0_value
    1.13109
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    4.312654165451029
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.5437043758660844
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.048780000000000046
    change_pct_from_t0
    4.312654165451029
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.7937046968798316
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.5437043758660844

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint c58b753767c54d7bf06b21e656ea7b4c85963070307c7da59d415e59f46edfc0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  2. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Ireland's pre-tax petrol price moved +12.9%, which is 4.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.27743
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    6.8395755027864835
    t0_value
    1.13109
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    12.937962496353089
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.631113127598254
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.14634000000000014
    change_pct_from_t0
    12.937962496353089
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.7937046968798316
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.631113127598254
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.27743
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    6.8395755027864835
    t0_value
    1.13109
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    12.937962496353089
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.631113127598254
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.14634000000000014
    change_pct_from_t0
    12.937962496353089
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.7937046968798316
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.631113127598254

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 57e3611f9ac404c4c192862aa9da921748d415a7f434a41c721a2f739147305c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  3. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Ireland's pre-tax petrol price moved -10.1%, which is 3.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.01727
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    0.5936496777056107
    t0_value
    1.13109
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -10.06285971938573
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -3.601976877020862
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.11382000000000003
    change_pct_from_t0
    -10.06285971938573
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.7937046968798316
    change_in_volatility_units
    -3.601976877020862
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.01727
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    0.5936496777056107
    t0_value
    1.13109
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -10.06285971938573
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -3.601976877020862
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.11382000000000003
    change_pct_from_t0
    -10.06285971938573
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.7937046968798316
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -3.601976877020862

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 39ccbed6b38dbeb6890441d211c0f7bd93e9e0d0408cb195bf8f1f1e50701d7c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  4. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Ireland's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +3.0%, which is 2.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.049
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    5.571284874345398
    t0_value
    1.989
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    3.016591251885361
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.3418073183581583
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.05999999999999983
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.016591251885361
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2881466499132364
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.3418073183581583
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.049
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    5.571284874345398
    t0_value
    1.989
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    3.016591251885361
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.3418073183581583
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.05999999999999983
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.016591251885361
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2881466499132364
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.3418073183581583

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 6c339c9ca408943c1f69ba3d08858275cba2a668f3eef852cd20fce1ec167b61 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  5. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Ireland's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +9.0%, which is 7.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.169
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    9.005050590428853
    t0_value
    1.989
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    9.049773755656105
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.025421955074491
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.17999999999999994
    change_pct_from_t0
    9.049773755656105
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2881466499132364
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.025421955074491
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.169
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    9.005050590428853
    t0_value
    1.989
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    9.049773755656105
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.025421955074491
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.17999999999999994
    change_pct_from_t0
    9.049773755656105
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2881466499132364
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.025421955074491

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 20419373ce65d7083433fdf68fa1623e25d35119ea00670e33a45768ca3e32f5 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  6. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Ireland's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -7.0%, which is 5.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.849
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    -0.1516579857936882
    t0_value
    1.989
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -7.038712921065868
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -5.464217076169056
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.14000000000000012
    change_pct_from_t0
    -7.038712921065868
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2881466499132364
    change_in_volatility_units
    -5.464217076169056
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.849
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    -0.1516579857936882
    t0_value
    1.989
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -7.038712921065868
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -5.464217076169056
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.14000000000000012
    change_pct_from_t0
    -7.038712921065868
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2881466499132364
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -5.464217076169056

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint eb4151c581c662f72199f09d745dc1e83118fd3284873ddbd3cfd1233bac1ed0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  7. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Ireland's tax-component petrol price moved +1.3%, which is 0.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.86913
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    0.10812985247066227
    t0_value
    0.85791
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.3078294926041203
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.8654063779335859
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.011220000000000008
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.3078294926041203
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5112316316953323
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.8654063779335859
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.86913
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    0.10812985247066227
    t0_value
    0.85791
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.3078294926041203
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.8654063779335859
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.011220000000000008
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.3078294926041203
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5112316316953323
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.8654063779335859

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint df3c323808bdfa1a2915389be05d8ff751e96e303462e05c8eeba500da41a829 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  8. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Ireland's tax-component petrol price moved +3.9%, which is 2.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.89157
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    0.4372334608041598
    t0_value
    0.85791
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    3.9234884778123607
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.596219133800757
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.03366000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.9234884778123607
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5112316316953323
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.596219133800757
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.89157
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    0.4372334608041598
    t0_value
    0.85791
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    3.9234884778123607
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.596219133800757
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.03366000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.9234884778123607
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5112316316953323
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.596219133800757

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 20963a0279751b970e592818930b497059efcecee5cacfc282db43191bdfd515 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  9. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Ireland's tax-component petrol price moved -3.1%, which is 2.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.83173
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    -0.4403761614184998
    t0_value
    0.85791
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -3.0516021494096095
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.0192815485116973
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.02617999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.0516021494096095
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5112316316953323
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.0192815485116973
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.83173
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    -0.4403761614184998
    t0_value
    0.85791
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -3.0516021494096095
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.0192815485116973
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.02617999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.0516021494096095
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5112316316953323
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.0192815485116973

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 8762dcd495e9ba7c7b654fb0976e62cd81771cd3b72d55273a398037ae3a5a4f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  10. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Ireland's pre-tax diesel price moved +2.8%, which is 1.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.1754300000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    1.1407431580042857
    t0_value
    1.14291
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.8453684017114296
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_IE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.971762683288909
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.032520000000000104
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.8453684017114296
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.9280486384611355
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.971762683288909
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.1754300000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    1.1407431580042857
    t0_value
    1.14291
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.8453684017114296
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_IE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.971762683288909
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.032520000000000104
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.8453684017114296
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.9280486384611355
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.971762683288909

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 8d7899b1321040a48b3a7a5d34e3385c479b4aaa163925d5346da818a6bf51bf · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  11. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Ireland's pre-tax diesel price moved +15.6%, which is 5.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.3217700000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    3.3760987249880414
    t0_value
    1.14291
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    15.649526209412816
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_IE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    5.344694758088983
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.17886000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    15.649526209412816
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.9280486384611355
    change_in_volatility_units
    5.344694758088983
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.3217700000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    3.3760987249880414
    t0_value
    1.14291
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    15.649526209412816
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_IE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    5.344694758088983
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.17886000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    15.649526209412816
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.9280486384611355
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    5.344694758088983

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint b079c5afa9b29baea67f64dd84033e58ac49698c07b6845f31721f1cc3e1afeb · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  12. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Ireland's pre-tax diesel price moved -2.1%, which is 0.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.11852
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    0.27143821528837647
    t0_value
    1.14291
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -2.134026301283577
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_IE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.7288220124666834
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.024390000000000134
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.134026301283577
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.9280486384611355
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.7288220124666834
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.11852
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    0.27143821528837647
    t0_value
    1.14291
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -2.134026301283577
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_IE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.7288220124666834
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.024390000000000134
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.134026301283577
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.9280486384611355
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.7288220124666834

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint cb8d05d293633c7def3239a01e56cd2338da721f8b4cad8cf7b84d6c648d6738 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  13. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Ireland's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +2.1%, which is 1.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.969
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    2.2531670806366284
    t0_value
    1.929
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.073613271124937
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_IE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.4593285545112875
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.040000000000000036
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.073613271124937
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4209365428468346
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.4593285545112875
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.969
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    2.2531670806366284
    t0_value
    1.929
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.073613271124937
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_IE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.4593285545112875
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.040000000000000036
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.073613271124937
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4209365428468346
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.4593285545112875

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 29f1c9211d6ee61afbcf4edf4ec28f6821cb7e71a0ccac6e8a3a54fcc76ccd21 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  14. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Ireland's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +11.4%, which is 8.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.149
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    8.661723562808517
    t0_value
    1.929
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    11.404872991187142
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_IE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    8.026307049812072
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.21999999999999997
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.404872991187142
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4209365428468346
    change_in_volatility_units
    8.026307049812072
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.149
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    8.661723562808517
    t0_value
    1.929
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    11.404872991187142
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_IE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    8.026307049812072
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.21999999999999997
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.404872991187142
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4209365428468346
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    8.026307049812072

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 6c233de290a0f7ad99eb6f997341f797c5a3ed2515930b1a20441a21891658ad · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  15. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Ireland's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -1.6%, which is 1.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.899
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    -0.23904932909688648
    t0_value
    1.929
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -1.5552099533437027
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_IE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.0944964158834656
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.030000000000000027
    change_pct_from_t0
    -1.5552099533437027
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4209365428468346
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.0944964158834656
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.899
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    -0.23904932909688648
    t0_value
    1.929
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -1.5552099533437027
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_IE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.0944964158834656
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.030000000000000027
    change_pct_from_t0
    -1.5552099533437027
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4209365428468346
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.0944964158834656

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint ed665e930d9f3f83c3813d3f4656c3b111cc5fdbb74330fb835b3e92ee677162 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  16. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Ireland's tax-component diesel price moved +1.0%, which is 0.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.7935699999999998
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    -0.2606875479468334
    t0_value
    0.78609
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.9515449884873005
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_IE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.7806756782265226
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.00747999999999982
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.9515449884873005
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2188736181059787
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.7806756782265226
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.7935699999999998
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    -0.2606875479468334
    t0_value
    0.78609
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.9515449884873005
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_IE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.7806756782265226
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.00747999999999982
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.9515449884873005
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2188736181059787
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.7806756782265226

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 088f9d15569aa3a383b1d68bfacc7bb796114ed6cc89047598c4b96f0a2eaf90 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  17. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Ireland's tax-component diesel price moved +5.2%, which is 4.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.8272299999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    0.509412753548052
    t0_value
    0.78609
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    5.233497436680273
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_IE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.293716230245973
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.041139999999999954
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.233497436680273
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2188736181059787
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.293716230245973
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.8272299999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    0.509412753548052
    t0_value
    0.78609
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    5.233497436680273
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_IE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.293716230245973
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.041139999999999954
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.233497436680273
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2188736181059787
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.293716230245973

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3d2c19c5fef9d44321934c3a4754e98c1516479f571867bfdb4ce1a1a3ef55b0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  18. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Ireland's tax-component diesel price moved -0.7%, which is 0.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.78048
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    -0.5601709985281725
    t0_value
    0.78609
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -0.713658741365493
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_IE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.5855067586699064
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.005610000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.713658741365493
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2188736181059787
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.5855067586699064
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.78048
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    z_score
    -0.5601709985281725
    t0_value
    0.78609
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -0.713658741365493
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_IE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.5855067586699064
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.005610000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.713658741365493
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2188736181059787
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.5855067586699064

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 764c3b2c8c8060039421603879fbffd275ee79d58a167efcad118be6d4a4b4e7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  19. Over the 4 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Ireland's pre-tax petrol price by +7.4 c/L (range +5.1–+9.8); it actually moved +14.6 c/L, leaving +7.2 c/L not explained by crude.

    about IrelandCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Ireland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    5
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.07206285198651702
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.14634000000000014
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.07427714801348312
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.0631714707771465
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -5.850000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.05065894656305095
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.0978953494639157
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Ireland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    5
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.07206285198651702
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.14634000000000014
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.07427714801348312
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.0631714707771465
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -5.850000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.05065894656305095
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.0978953494639157
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 0b4bf2d76bbd5edadfdad59eeb5133c930afa5c74da71c51d92d5e2eea419daf · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  20. Over the 13 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Ireland's pre-tax petrol price by +4.4 c/L (range -2.4–+11.2); it actually moved -11.4 c/L, leaving -15.8 c/L not explained by crude.

    about IrelandCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Ireland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    5
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.15767389895188658
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.11382000000000003
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.043853898951886544
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.3403268500876152
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -31.516000000000002
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.024355561635898474
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.11206335953967134
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Ireland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IE_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    5
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.15767389895188658
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.11382000000000003
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.043853898951886544
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.3403268500876152
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -31.516000000000002
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.024355561635898474
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.11206335953967134
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 0eb5c79590397c44709c4804386deeab1bfac4ae69454eb1d0fecc84cfca70f0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  21. Over the 4 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Ireland's pre-tax diesel price by +10.8 c/L (range +6.8–+14.9); it actually moved +17.9 c/L, leaving +7.0 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 11.5 $/bbl.

    about IrelandCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Ireland
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IE_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.07044031328301825
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.17886000000000002
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.10841968671698177
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.587160761067042
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    11.537999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.06798959535156723
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.14884977808239586
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Ireland
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IE_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.07044031328301825
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.17886000000000002
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.10841968671698177
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.587160761067042
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    11.537999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.06798959535156723
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.14884977808239586
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 95a4329508d340d18753156ae19f32b045bc7aa989ca8b1a7decaff897c7e258 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  22. Over the 13 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Ireland's pre-tax diesel price by +11.2 c/L (range +0.8–+21.7); it actually moved -2.4 c/L, leaving -13.7 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 19.3 $/bbl.

    about IrelandCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Ireland
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IE_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.13679478791965397
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.024390000000000134
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.11240478791965383
    proxy_volatility_units
    4.337945231721529
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    19.345999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.007904409011776754
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.21690516682752542
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Ireland
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IE_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.13679478791965397
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.024390000000000134
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.11240478791965383
    proxy_volatility_units
    4.337945231721529
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    19.345999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.007904409011776754
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.21690516682752542
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 75816394e2fa7cda15c7a3f8a54533fed8262fde99a0cd4d70bb2a9a1272ca4b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  23. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was limited (0%) for Ireland in 2022-06.

    about IrelandCalculatedLow
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.point v1.1 · Fingerprint 6aed0642fced2cf2de8d7fb06226d6b61b35585ab9c2c278012ec7edf1ebe26d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  24. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was limited (0%) for Ireland in 2022-06.

    about IrelandCalculatedLow
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.point v1.1 · Fingerprint 30ada8a32a2698b0a311d40dba0e7aaeaf885798a9ff8a15609c371f7162d318 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  25. Available evidence does not show a physical supply reduction: Ireland's reported crude imports in 2022-06 were +1.2% against the mean of the previous 12 months.

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    country
    Ireland
    change_pct
    1.2423388877064974
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    250137
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    247067.58333333334
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    country
    Ireland
    change_pct
    1.2423388877064974
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    250137
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    247067.58333333334
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.supply.no_reduction v1.1 · Fingerprint cfc3aa7fb70c5692ef9f2ef53cbdeeb71dffd7a9e6bc9ebc959345d7b5e21394 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  26. In 2022-06, Ireland's oil stocks stood 10.5% below their trailing 12-month mean, with 78.0 days of cover (as published).

    about IrelandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_IE
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    days_of_cover
    78
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -0.061046117461110015
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    1717324
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    0
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    1918264.5833333333
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -10.475123456857164
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    -10.475123456857164
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    -10.5
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Ireland
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_IE
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    days_of_cover
    78
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -0.061046117461110015
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    1717324
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    1918264.5833333333
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -10.475123456857164
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Template event.inventory_level.below v1.1 · Fingerprint 7ca8734e42aad16c27e4eb37f08b058b22ead83f4370b3ff287a2e46bf2c8c4b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  27. Summary of what can be checked here

    Only part of the chain can be checked for Ireland around Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022: 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was limited (0–0%) over the period covered. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.

    about IrelandUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    country
    Ireland
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    dependence_band
    limited
    dependence_range
    0–0%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    country
    Ireland
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    IE
    country_name
    Ireland
    country_slug
    ireland
    dependence_band
    limited
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    0–0%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint 9342a730535eebdb244c59561b0622b98434f4bb75f6c66910b8d61759bbd288 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  28. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved +5.7%, which is 1.3 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    129.2
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    2.0172282715868546
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    5.7283142389525255
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-06-08
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.999999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.7283142389525255
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    129.2
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    2.0172282715868546
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    5.7283142389525255
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-06-08
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.999999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.7283142389525255
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint f87dd225bc59dba803e038025a29e47ed148997fb21d856c0cd78839753ee67a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  29. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved -2.4%, which is 0.5 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    119.21
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.8887326572425913
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -2.4468085106383053
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-07-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -2.990000000000009
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.4468085106383053
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    119.21
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.8887326572425913
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -2.4468085106383053
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-07-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -2.990000000000009
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.4468085106383053
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint fad3fa12c4cda01a6223521c8666f80ff0cc67ef8185a2d6e383ba814fecdcc1 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  30. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved -18.7%, which is 4.2 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    99.34
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.355832693810513
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -18.707037643207855
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-08-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -22.86
    change_pct_from_t0
    -18.707037643207855
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    99.34
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.355832693810513
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -18.707037643207855
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-08-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -22.86
    change_pct_from_t0
    -18.707037643207855
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3c93fc5aedb651c26598bd6d9310189a42a1c8df629f57a43bf0be16cf35bb23 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  31. Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 5682d55cccd2b29a396302436312a88aeeb0ee29362398f48b45370bc339e780 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  32. Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 9f428e998d4f8e3f0b62ce0e589b72e73c5860218140f2727aa93741661c7d36 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  33. Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 56fb16ffc2601451cfda44b453655b8c4394e0f659ccd04a0f7a8a13e347bf80 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  34. Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 98f34b162486945bf201f66ee3c233374109d50156f5d4ec98817b088ac4af77 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

  • It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
  • A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
  • Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
  • Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Ireland: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

  • OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
  • VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
  • CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
  • Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
  • Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
  • Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
  • UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.