Events / Tax change

Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022

Dates: 2022-06-01 → 2022-08-31
Dated to: the day
Status: Ended
Scope: Germany

What the sources said

Energiesteuersenkungsgesetz (Gesetz zur Aenderung des Energiesteuerrechts zur temporaeren Absenkung der Energiesteuer fuer Kraftstoffe) of 24 May 2022, BGBl. I 2022 p. 810. The Bundestag record of 19 May 2022 states the reduction ran from 1 June to 31 August 2022 and cut the energy-tax rate by 29.55 ct/litre on Benzin and by 14.04 ct/litre on Dieselkraftstoff. The same change is present in the primary tax series this project already holds: the tax rates taken from the European Commission Weekly Oil Bulletin duties and taxes file record German excise on Euro-super 95 petrol at 0.6545 EUR/litre before, 0.3590 EUR/litre effective 2022-06-01 and 0.6545 EUR/litre again effective 2022-08-31, and on diesel at 0.4704, then 0.3300, then 0.4704 EUR/litre on the same dates. The two records agree to the cent. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about how the change reached pump prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official

Retrieved 2026-09-25 14:07 UTCRevision 2

Source documents (3)

CountryGermany France Netherlands Poland Finland Estonia Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czechia Denmark Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden

FuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Italy, Diesel (automotive gas oil). 16 series can be drawn; 4 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

182 published readings, 26 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 52 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-04-29	108.4	-13.840	-11.33%	-2.53
−14	2022-05-18	110.0	-12.160	-9.95%	-2.22
−7	2022-05-25	116.4	-5.790	-4.74%	-1.06
−3	2022-05-27	121.2	-1.010	-0.83%	-0.18
−1	2022-05-31	125.5	+3.330	+2.73%	+0.61
T0	2022-06-01same print as T0	122.2	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-06-01same print as T0	122.2	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-06-03	125.7	+3.480	+2.85%	+0.64
+7	2022-06-08	129.2	+7.000	+5.73%	+1.28
+14	2022-06-15	125.0	+2.760	+2.26%	+0.50
+30	2022-07-01	119.2	-2.990	-2.45%	-0.55
+60	2022-07-29	111.5	-10.690	-8.75%	-1.95
+90	2022-08-30	99.34	-22.860	-18.71%	-4.18

One volatility unit for this series is 4.48%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (764 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-01	5,838,451	+244,426	+4.37%	+0.25
−14	2022-05-01	5,838,451	+244,426	+4.37%	+0.25
−7	2022-05-01	5,838,451	+244,426	+4.37%	+0.25
−3	2022-05-01	5,838,451	+244,426	+4.37%	+0.25
−1	2022-05-01	5,838,451	+244,426	+4.37%	+0.25
T0	2022-06-01same print as T0	5,594,025	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-06-01same print as T0	5,594,025	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-06-01same print as T0	5,594,025	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-06-01same print as T0	5,594,025	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2022-06-01same print as T0	5,594,025	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2022-07-01	5,501,896	-92,129	-1.65%	-0.09
+60	2022-07-01	5,501,896	-92,129	-1.65%	-0.09
+90	2022-08-01	5,574,332	-19,693	-0.35%	-0.02

One volatility unit for this series is 17.44%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-02	1.002	-0.117	-10.43%	-0.20
−14	2022-05-16	1.063	-0.056	-4.97%	-0.09
−7	2022-05-23	1.089	-0.030	-2.66%	-0.05
−3	2022-05-23	1.089	-0.030	-2.66%	-0.05
−1	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.118	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.118	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.118	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.118	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-06-06	1.160	+0.041	+3.67%	+0.07
+14	2022-06-13	1.199	+0.081	+7.24%	+0.14
+30	2022-06-27	1.219	+0.100	+8.96%	+0.17
+60	2022-07-25	1.220	+0.101	+9.07%	+0.17
+90	2022-08-29	1.202	+0.083	+7.45%	+0.14

One volatility unit for this series is 52.48%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-02	1.052	-0.019	-1.76%	-4.20
−14	2022-05-18	1.052	-0.019	-1.76%	-4.23
−7	2022-05-25	1.066	-0.006	-0.52%	-1.25
−3	2022-05-27	1.072	+0.001	+0.09%	+0.22
−1	2022-05-31	1.071	+0.000	+0.01%	+0.02
T0	2022-06-01same print as T0	1.071	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-06-02	1.069	-0.002	-0.19%	-0.45
+3	2022-06-03	1.073	+0.002	+0.17%	+0.40
+7	2022-06-08	1.074	+0.003	+0.25%	+0.60
+14	2022-06-15	1.043	-0.028	-2.62%	-6.28
+30	2022-07-01	1.043	-0.029	-2.68%	-6.42
+60	2022-07-29	1.020	-0.051	-4.80%	-11.50
+90	2022-08-30	1.003	-0.068	-6.33%	-15.16

One volatility unit for this series is 0.42%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (770 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-01	12.39–14.77	not published	not published	not published
−14	2022-05-01	12.39–14.77	not published	not published	not published
−7	2022-05-01	12.39–14.77	not published	not published	not published
−3	2022-05-01	12.39–14.77	not published	not published	not published
−1	2022-05-01	12.39–14.77	not published	not published	not published
T0	2022-06-01	10.89–21.53	not published	not published	not published
+1	2022-06-01	10.89–21.53	not published	not published	not published
+3	2022-06-01	10.89–21.53	not published	not published	not published
+7	2022-06-01	10.89–21.53	not published	not published	not published
+14	2022-06-01	10.89–21.53	not published	not published	not published
+30	2022-07-01	15.44–23.11	not published	not published	not published
+60	2022-07-01	15.44–23.11	not published	not published	not published
+90	2022-08-01	10.32–18.37	not published	not published	not published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-01	4.290–46.48	not published	not published	not published
−14	2022-05-01	4.290–46.48	not published	not published	not published
−7	2022-05-01	4.290–46.48	not published	not published	not published
−3	2022-05-01	4.290–46.48	not published	not published	not published
−1	2022-05-01	4.290–46.48	not published	not published	not published
T0	2022-06-01	0–53.93	not published	not published	not published
+1	2022-06-01	0–53.93	not published	not published	not published
+3	2022-06-01	0–53.93	not published	not published	not published
+7	2022-06-01	0–53.93	not published	not published	not published
+14	2022-06-01	0–53.93	not published	not published	not published
+30	2022-07-01	11.85–36.59	not published	not published	not published
+60	2022-07-01	11.85–36.59	not published	not published	not published
+90	2022-08-01	10.79–28.80	not published	not published	not published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-01	82.00	-1.000	-1.20%	-0.79
−14	2022-05-01	82.00	-1.000	-1.20%	-0.79
−7	2022-05-01	82.00	-1.000	-1.20%	-0.79
−3	2022-05-01	82.00	-1.000	-1.20%	-0.79
−1	2022-05-01	82.00	-1.000	-1.20%	-0.79
T0	2022-06-01same print as T0	83.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-06-01same print as T0	83.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-06-01same print as T0	83.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-06-01same print as T0	83.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2022-06-01same print as T0	83.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2022-07-01	84.00	+1.000	+1.20%	+0.79
+60	2022-07-01	84.00	+1.000	+1.20%	+0.79
+90	2022-08-01	83.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00

One volatility unit for this series is 1.52%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-02	0.6576	-0.070	-9.62%	-1.20
−14	2022-05-16	0.6754	-0.052	-7.17%	-0.90
−7	2022-05-23	0.6922	-0.035	-4.85%	-0.61
−3	2022-05-23	0.6922	-0.035	-4.85%	-0.61
−1	2022-05-30same print as T0	0.7275	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-05-30same print as T0	0.7275	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-05-30same print as T0	0.7275	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-05-30same print as T0	0.7275	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-06-06	0.7496	+0.022	+3.04%	+0.38
+14	2022-06-13	0.7533	+0.026	+3.54%	+0.44
+30	2022-06-27	0.7214	-0.006	-0.84%	-0.11
+60	2022-07-25	0.6761	-0.051	-7.07%	-0.88
+90	2022-08-29	0.5990	-0.129	-17.67%	-2.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.00%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-01	15,305,589	+15,636	+0.10%	+0.03
−14	2022-05-01	15,305,589	+15,636	+0.10%	+0.03
−7	2022-05-01	15,305,589	+15,636	+0.10%	+0.03
−3	2022-05-01	15,305,589	+15,636	+0.10%	+0.03
−1	2022-05-01	15,305,589	+15,636	+0.10%	+0.03
T0	2022-06-01same print as T0	15,289,953	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-06-01same print as T0	15,289,953	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-06-01same print as T0	15,289,953	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-06-01same print as T0	15,289,953	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2022-06-01same print as T0	15,289,953	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2022-07-01	15,732,276	+442,323	+2.89%	+0.83
+60	2022-07-01	15,732,276	+442,323	+2.89%	+0.83
+90	2022-08-01	15,656,947	+366,994	+2.40%	+0.69

One volatility unit for this series is 3.48%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-02	0.0989	+0.099	not published	not published
−14	2022-05-16	0.0680	+0.068	not published	not published
−7	2022-05-23	0.0356	+0.036	not published	not published
−3	2022-05-23	0.0356	+0.036	not published	not published
−1	2022-05-30same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
T0	2022-05-30same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
+1	2022-05-30same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
+3	2022-05-30same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
+7	2022-06-06	-0.0093	-0.009	not published	not published
+14	2022-06-13	0.0194	+0.019	not published	not published
+30	2022-06-27	0.0810	+0.081	not published	not published
+60	2022-07-25	-0.0345	-0.035	not published	not published
+90	2022-08-29	-0.0867	-0.087	not published	not published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-02	1.791	-0.022	-1.20%	-0.59
−14	2022-05-16	1.828	+0.015	+0.84%	+0.42
−7	2022-05-23	1.820	+0.007	+0.39%	+0.20
−3	2022-05-23	1.820	+0.007	+0.39%	+0.20
−1	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.813	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.813	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.813	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.813	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-06-06	1.852	+0.039	+2.14%	+1.06
+14	2022-06-13	1.935	+0.122	+6.76%	+3.35
+30	2022-06-27	2.034	+0.221	+12.19%	+6.05
+60	2022-07-25	1.894	+0.082	+4.51%	+2.24
+90	2022-08-29	1.809	-0.004	-0.23%	-0.11

One volatility unit for this series is 2.01%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-02	1.101	-0.018	-1.59%	-0.52
−14	2022-05-16	1.131	+0.012	+1.11%	+0.37
−7	2022-05-23	1.124	+0.006	+0.52%	+0.17
−3	2022-05-23	1.124	+0.006	+0.52%	+0.17
−1	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.118	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.118	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.118	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.118	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-06-06	1.150	+0.032	+2.84%	+0.93
+14	2022-06-13	1.219	+0.100	+8.98%	+2.95
+30	2022-06-27	1.300	+0.181	+16.20%	+5.33
+60	2022-07-25	1.185	+0.067	+5.99%	+1.97
+90	2022-08-29	1.115	-0.003	-0.30%	-0.10

One volatility unit for this series is 3.04%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-02	0.6904	-0.004	-0.56%	-0.22
−14	2022-05-16	0.6970	+0.003	+0.39%	+0.16
−7	2022-05-23	0.6956	+0.001	+0.19%	+0.07
−3	2022-05-23	0.6956	+0.001	+0.19%	+0.07
−1	2022-05-30same print as T0	0.6943	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-05-30same print as T0	0.6943	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-05-30same print as T0	0.6943	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-05-30same print as T0	0.6943	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-06-06	0.7013	+0.007	+1.01%	+0.40
+14	2022-06-13	0.7164	+0.022	+3.18%	+1.26
+30	2022-06-27	0.7342	+0.040	+5.74%	+2.27
+60	2022-07-25	0.7090	+0.015	+2.12%	+0.84
+90	2022-08-29	0.6936	-0.001	-0.11%	-0.04

One volatility unit for this series is 2.53%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-04-29	85.85	+30.052	+53.86%	+5.76
−14	2022-05-18	74.63	+18.838	+33.76%	+3.61
−7	2022-05-25	54.28	-1.518	-2.72%	-0.29
−3	2022-05-27	47.73	-8.062	-14.45%	-1.55
−1	2022-05-31	42.22	-13.578	-24.34%	-2.60
T0	2022-06-01same print as T0	55.80	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-06-01same print as T0	55.80	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-06-03	60.04	+4.248	+7.61%	+0.81
+7	2022-06-08	55.39	-0.406	-0.73%	-0.08
+14	2022-06-15	67.36	+11.562	+20.72%	+2.22
+30	2022-07-01	49.88	-5.914	-10.60%	-1.13
+60	2022-07-29	39.98	-15.812	-28.34%	-3.03
+90	2022-08-30	60.97	+5.178	+9.28%	+0.99

One volatility unit for this series is 9.34%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-04-29	35.83	-21.818	-37.85%	-0.21
−14	2022-05-18	48.89	-8.756	-15.19%	-0.08
−7	2022-05-25	47.31	-10.338	-17.93%	-0.10
−3	2022-05-27	51.09	-6.550	-11.36%	-0.06
−1	2022-05-31	47.09	-10.554	-18.31%	-0.10
T0	2022-06-01same print as T0	57.64	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-06-01same print as T0	57.64	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-06-03	63.70	+6.054	+10.50%	+0.06
+7	2022-06-08	54.93	-2.716	-4.71%	-0.03
+14	2022-06-15	40.73	-16.914	-29.34%	-0.16
+30	2022-07-01	40.89	-16.750	-29.06%	-0.16
+60	2022-07-29	30.91	-26.732	-46.37%	-0.26
+90	2022-08-30	14.86	-42.786	-74.22%	-0.41

One volatility unit for this series is 181.24%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-04-29	81.86	+38.872	+90.43%	+0.52
−14	2022-05-18	35.78	-7.202	-16.75%	-0.10
−7	2022-05-25	40.71	-2.274	-5.29%	-0.03
−3	2022-05-27	40.59	-2.392	-5.56%	-0.03
−1	2022-05-31	34.70	-8.286	-19.28%	-0.11
T0	2022-06-01same print as T0	42.99	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-06-01same print as T0	42.99	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-06-03	46.69	+3.702	+8.61%	+0.05
+7	2022-06-08	42.16	-0.826	-1.92%	-0.01
+14	2022-06-15	56.44	+13.452	+31.29%	+0.18
+30	2022-07-01	39.51	-3.478	-8.09%	-0.05
+60	2022-07-29	31.37	-11.612	-27.01%	-0.15
+90	2022-08-30	49.63	+6.648	+15.47%	+0.09

One volatility unit for this series is 175.17%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

T0 is 2022-06-01. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022 really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, each with its status and one published figure.
Dimension	Status	Published figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.	Range only	15.44–23.11 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2022-07) · no midpoint
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.	Range only	11.85–36.59 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2022-07) · no midpoint
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.	Observed	84.00 days of cover at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)+1.20% from the level at T0 = +0.79 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.	Observed	119.2 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)-2.45% from the level at T0 = -0.55 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.	Unavailable	EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.	Unavailable	No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.	Unavailable	Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.	Observed	15,732,276 tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)+2.89% from the level at T0 = +0.83 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.	Unavailable	Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.	Observed	1.300 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-06-27)+16.20% from the level at T0 = +5.33 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.	Observed	2.034 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-06-27)+12.19% from the level at T0 = +6.05 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2022-05-25 to 2022-07-01 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Italy, diesel (automotive gas oil)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/de-tankrabatt-2022/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'de-tankrabatt-2022' and country 'italy'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Italy's pre-tax petrol price moved +4.2%, which is 1.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.1122100000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
1.8597934638088662
t0_value
1.06706
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
4.231252225741781
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.661177169740382
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.045150000000000245
change_pct_from_t0
4.231252225741781
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.5471408485604607
change_in_volatility_units
1.661177169740382
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.1122100000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
1.8597934638088662
t0_value
1.06706
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
4.231252225741781
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.661177169740382
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.045150000000000245
change_pct_from_t0
4.231252225741781
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.5471408485604607
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.661177169740382
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 84c93da3491a99cdbaea2c706f9b43b03ed5d92ad56975de5f9ea52344b359db · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Italy's pre-tax petrol price moved +14.5%, which is 5.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.2215799999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
3.547766811159759
t0_value
1.06706
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
14.480910164376885
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
5.685162708046121
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.15452
change_pct_from_t0
14.480910164376885
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.5471408485604607
change_in_volatility_units
5.685162708046121
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.2215799999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
3.547766811159759
t0_value
1.06706
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
14.480910164376885
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
5.685162708046121
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.15452
change_pct_from_t0
14.480910164376885
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.5471408485604607
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
5.685162708046121
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 8628886f59d6ece7b48e6e4992ad2abbe2af8ee2d0804cf8401e20463228613f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Italy's pre-tax petrol price moved -9.5%, which is 3.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.9654400000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.4053966997706462
t0_value
1.06706
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-9.523363259797932
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-3.73884438513879
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.10161999999999982
change_pct_from_t0
-9.523363259797932
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.5471408485604607
change_in_volatility_units
-3.73884438513879
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.9654400000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.4053966997706462
t0_value
1.06706
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-9.523363259797932
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-3.73884438513879
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.10161999999999982
change_pct_from_t0
-9.523363259797932
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.5471408485604607
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-3.73884438513879
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 0b1a19f286f360a88e4ed72a75c9178817c1cd9f66fbbac0112ead6e022ebb35 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Italy's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +2.9%, which is 1.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.94054
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
0.0929677186924238
t0_value
1.8854600000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
2.921303024195676
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.7480938733177316
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.055079999999999796
change_pct_from_t0
2.921303024195676
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.6711362408995203
change_in_volatility_units
1.7480938733177316
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.94054
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
0.0929677186924238
t0_value
1.8854600000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
2.921303024195676
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.7480938733177316
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.055079999999999796
change_pct_from_t0
2.921303024195676
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.6711362408995203
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.7480938733177316
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 8ea016b3315b683f4450ebf7e192fc74f96d9ca455cbcef14bed96b582311761 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Italy's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +10.0%, which is 6.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
2.07398
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
0.8542483943847221
t0_value
1.8854600000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
9.998621026168681
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
5.983127396475309
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.18852000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
9.998621026168681
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.6711362408995203
change_in_volatility_units
5.983127396475309
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
2.07398
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
0.8542483943847221
t0_value
1.8854600000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
9.998621026168681
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
5.983127396475309
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.18852000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
9.998621026168681
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.6711362408995203
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
5.983127396475309
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 4a38d384cf77a3054f3020484a4b12ead9de4b179b60b27b56c92fa31c9ec029 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Italy's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -6.6%, which is 3.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.7614800000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.928576929010383
t0_value
1.8854600000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-6.575583677192832
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-3.9347980830416325
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.12397999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
-6.575583677192832
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.6711362408995203
change_in_volatility_units
-3.9347980830416325
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.7614800000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.928576929010383
t0_value
1.8854600000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-6.575583677192832
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-3.9347980830416325
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.12397999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
-6.575583677192832
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.6711362408995203
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-3.9347980830416325
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 865f3f22d73761479683655f45727ec7af820818c02f37c5751e3398ee48dd85 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Italy's tax-component petrol price moved +1.2%, which is 0.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about ItalyCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.8283299999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.641318794183068
t0_value
0.8184000000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.2133431085043709
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
7
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.5401684511027199
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.009929999999999772
change_pct_from_t0
1.2133431085043709
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.246230978553833
change_in_volatility_units
0.5401684511027199
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.8283299999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.641318794183068
t0_value
0.8184000000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.2133431085043709
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.5401684511027199
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.009929999999999772
change_pct_from_t0
1.2133431085043709
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.246230978553833
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.5401684511027199
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint c3c2565652378a4b21585dec0692afd11652a6e36203e52ad7531ea3a863a2ef · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Italy's tax-component petrol price moved +4.2%, which is 1.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about ItalyCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.8524
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.4931855381245229
t0_value
0.8184000000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
4.154447702834789
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
30
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.849519369334628
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.03399999999999992
change_pct_from_t0
4.154447702834789
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.246230978553833
change_in_volatility_units
1.849519369334628
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.8524
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.4931855381245229
t0_value
0.8184000000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
4.154447702834789
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.849519369334628
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.03399999999999992
change_pct_from_t0
4.154447702834789
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.246230978553833
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.849519369334628
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 284dd4babf0d3519431198dedfe51eb189c9643694ca410cf635a1bb7b59bbfd · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Italy's tax-component petrol price moved -2.7%, which is 1.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about ItalyCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.7960400000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.8400401418411637
t0_value
0.8184000000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-2.732160312805479
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
90
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.2163309734800725
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.022360000000000047
change_pct_from_t0
-2.732160312805479
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.246230978553833
change_in_volatility_units
-1.2163309734800725
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.7960400000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.8400401418411637
t0_value
0.8184000000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-2.732160312805479
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.2163309734800725
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.022360000000000047
change_pct_from_t0
-2.732160312805479
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.246230978553833
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-1.2163309734800725
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 5abca86febc1220946f56fbc58a198f8558f166aa5e3c4f400738020f731b69f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Italy's pre-tax diesel price moved +2.8%, which is 0.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.15024
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
0.7468471362151526
t0_value
1.11849
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
2.8386485350785384
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.9335547907826515
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.031749999999999945
change_pct_from_t0
2.8386485350785384
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
3.04068766301198
change_in_volatility_units
0.9335547907826515
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.15024
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
0.7468471362151526
t0_value
1.11849
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
2.8386485350785384
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.9335547907826515
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.031749999999999945
change_pct_from_t0
2.8386485350785384
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
3.04068766301198
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.9335547907826515
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 89227f8deb178e6cc940f99bf4d9b3bd20c4e5d3ee334662440ca3600d0a648a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Italy's pre-tax diesel price moved +16.2%, which is 5.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.29967
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
2.3537452211098655
t0_value
1.11849
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
16.198624931827744
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
5.327289984063031
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.18118000000000012
change_pct_from_t0
16.198624931827744
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
3.04068766301198
change_in_volatility_units
5.327289984063031
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.29967
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
2.3537452211098655
t0_value
1.11849
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
16.198624931827744
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
5.327289984063031
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.18118000000000012
change_pct_from_t0
16.198624931827744
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
3.04068766301198
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
5.327289984063031
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 00a782e79f898779db114401918acade9d15d231f6d8dfcfad15268b9e686661 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Italy's pre-tax diesel price moved -0.3%, which is 0.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.1151300000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
0.36929114504435095
t0_value
1.11849
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-0.30040501032640504
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.09879508967022158
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.0033599999999998076
change_pct_from_t0
-0.30040501032640504
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
3.04068766301198
change_in_volatility_units
-0.09879508967022158
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.1151300000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
0.36929114504435095
t0_value
1.11849
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-0.30040501032640504
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.09879508967022158
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.0033599999999998076
change_pct_from_t0
-0.30040501032640504
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
3.04068766301198
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.09879508967022158
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 58cde36551fad2f821cb5e22d9f869890daa3ec6b3fecbf57edb1453af13c577 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Italy's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +2.1%, which is 1.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.85152
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.2719947382652617
t0_value
1.81279
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
2.1364857484871473
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.060692068098027
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.03873000000000015
change_pct_from_t0
2.1364857484871473
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.014237508458202
change_in_volatility_units
1.060692068098027
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.85152
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.2719947382652617
t0_value
1.81279
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
2.1364857484871473
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.060692068098027
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.03873000000000015
change_pct_from_t0
2.1364857484871473
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.014237508458202
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.060692068098027
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint e9579b75fdc24ae5fecc50e2617fd3b30d252718d0c6606e81e2d18e25f5e011 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Italy's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +12.2%, which is 6.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
2.03383
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
0.8062927493305867
t0_value
1.81279
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
12.193359407322422
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
6.053585714753088
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.22104000000000013
change_pct_from_t0
12.193359407322422
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.014237508458202
change_in_volatility_units
6.053585714753088
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
2.03383
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
0.8062927493305867
t0_value
1.81279
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
12.193359407322422
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
6.053585714753088
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.22104000000000013
change_pct_from_t0
12.193359407322422
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.014237508458202
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
6.053585714753088
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 78a57d3b627a78100cf75ed45aededdf4069632584679a4d39902373293256a9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Italy's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -0.2%, which is 0.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.8086900000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.5253162954685425
t0_value
1.81279
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-0.22617070923823338
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.11228601805323135
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.0040999999999997705
change_pct_from_t0
-0.22617070923823338
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.014237508458202
change_in_volatility_units
-0.11228601805323135
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.8086900000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.5253162954685425
t0_value
1.81279
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-0.22617070923823338
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.11228601805323135
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.0040999999999997705
change_pct_from_t0
-0.22617070923823338
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.014237508458202
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.11228601805323135
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 902c408b5000d58b99a746975ead89c0f176abc2da7f6c0c91e074072096bedf · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Italy's tax-component diesel price moved +1.0%, which is 0.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about ItalyCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.70128
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.7295473434042116
t0_value
0.6943
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.0053291084545566
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
7
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.3978604079150194
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.006979999999999986
change_pct_from_t0
1.0053291084545566
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.5268387817801887
change_in_volatility_units
0.3978604079150194
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.70128
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.7295473434042116
t0_value
0.6943
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.0053291084545566
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.3978604079150194
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.006979999999999986
change_pct_from_t0
1.0053291084545566
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.5268387817801887
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.3978604079150194
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 1c2c1ad0b05d495291c2ac5f6bd7e53143037f37ee7c96c7857f272b349cadb7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Italy's tax-component diesel price moved +5.7%, which is 2.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about ItalyCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.73416
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.5217527011604538
t0_value
0.6943
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
5.741034135100102
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
30
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
2.2720223294402158
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.03986000000000001
change_pct_from_t0
5.741034135100102
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.5268387817801887
change_in_volatility_units
2.2720223294402158
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.73416
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.5217527011604538
t0_value
0.6943
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
5.741034135100102
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
2.2720223294402158
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.03986000000000001
change_pct_from_t0
5.741034135100102
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.5268387817801887
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
2.2720223294402158
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3ca6684f6f44200a8457ce5138dcce481ce9a5dfb6656f07c6c22d0a83f0956d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Italy's tax-component diesel price moved -0.1%, which is 0.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about ItalyCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.69356
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.7783361097704471
t0_value
0.6943
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-0.10658216909118161
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
90
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.04218004324600922
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.0007400000000000739
change_pct_from_t0
-0.10658216909118161
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.5268387817801887
change_in_volatility_units
-0.04218004324600922
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.69356
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.7783361097704471
t0_value
0.6943
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-0.10658216909118161
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.04218004324600922
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.0007400000000000739
change_pct_from_t0
-0.10658216909118161
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.5268387817801887
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.04218004324600922
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 26475262aa0f72500830fa35c37fe78dff0bc8b62203106b376276a03fa1a1b3 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 4 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Italy's pre-tax petrol price by +4.6 c/L (range +1.2–+8.0); it actually moved +15.5 c/L, leaving +10.8 c/L not explained by crude.
about ItalyCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-06-27
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-05-27
observation_date
2022-06-27
gap_eur_per_litre
0.10849276031757024
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-05-30
actual_eur_per_litre
0.15452
expected_eur_per_litre
0.04602723968242974
proxy_volatility_units
-0.0631714707771465
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-5.850000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.011844830162690126
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.08020964920217022
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
181.24455741814873
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-06-27
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-05-27
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-06-27
gap_eur_per_litre
0.10849276031757024
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-05-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.15452
expected_eur_per_litre
0.04602723968242974
proxy_volatility_units
-0.0631714707771465
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-5.850000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.011844830162690126
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.08020964920217022
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
181.24455741814873
Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 43d2b9d2780f80ad2895df3860f971b0ac4356529823a7b8207ddcaf8781a71a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 13 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Italy's pre-tax petrol price by -2.0 c/L (range -13.8–+9.8); it actually moved -10.2 c/L, leaving -8.1 c/L not explained by crude.
about ItalyCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-08-26
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-05-27
observation_date
2022-08-29
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.08138705735501556
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-05-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.10161999999999982
expected_eur_per_litre
-0.020232942644984257
proxy_volatility_units
-0.3403268500876152
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-31.516000000000002
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.1383059434048927
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.09784005811492516
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
181.24455741814873
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-08-26
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-05-27
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-08-29
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.08138705735501556
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-05-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.10161999999999982
expected_eur_per_litre
-0.020232942644984257
proxy_volatility_units
-0.3403268500876152
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-31.516000000000002
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.1383059434048927
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.09784005811492516
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
181.24455741814873
Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 1bfb8af22fd3ad7cd4e3c28e2b6fcb69243f9a42d7282c6588a802fa08d2c11a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 4 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Italy's pre-tax diesel price by +10.0 c/L (range +7.1–+13.0); it actually moved +18.1 c/L, leaving +8.1 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 11.5 $/bbl.
about ItalyCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_DIESEL
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-06-27
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-05-27
observation_date
2022-06-27
gap_eur_per_litre
0.08095363913267545
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-05-30
actual_eur_per_litre
0.18118000000000012
expected_eur_per_litre
0.10022636086732467
proxy_volatility_units
2.587160761067042
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
11.537999999999997
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.07065544450503505
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.1297972772296132
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.342848145796136
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_DIESEL
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-06-27
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-05-27
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-06-27
gap_eur_per_litre
0.08095363913267545
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-05-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.18118000000000012
expected_eur_per_litre
0.10022636086732467
proxy_volatility_units
2.587160761067042
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
11.537999999999997
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.07065544450503505
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.1297972772296132
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.342848145796136
Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 5f655162bf7b8a1c75c4fb6d3acba32276b8e12a4246bd6a3b830d2fba459366 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 13 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Italy's pre-tax diesel price by +8.3 c/L (range -0.7–+17.3); it actually moved -0.3 c/L, leaving -8.7 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 19.3 $/bbl.
about ItalyCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_DIESEL
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-08-26
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-05-27
observation_date
2022-08-29
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.08669069184623415
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-05-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.0033599999999998076
expected_eur_per_litre
0.08333069184623434
proxy_volatility_units
4.337945231721529
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
19.345999999999997
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.0065509351303772514
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.17321231882284233
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.342848145796136
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_DIESEL
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-08-26
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-05-27
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-08-29
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.08669069184623415
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-05-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.0033599999999998076
expected_eur_per_litre
0.08333069184623434
proxy_volatility_units
4.337945231721529
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
19.345999999999997
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.0065509351303772514
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.17321231882284233
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.342848145796136
Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 2c35467a4ac0f2e06170c8a63139f281dba1f4d3b20e2b4ea2586d59f2fbc8f0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was moderate (11%–22%) for Italy in 2022-06. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.
about ItalyCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-06
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Italy
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
value_max_pct
21.5310485741483
value_min_pct
10.8876014318849
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-06-01
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-06
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Italy
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
value_max_pct
21.5310485741483
value_min_pct
10.8876014318849
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-06-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint 8a1f0072a6ecfaefc8bb6f3bff4a0da9728669c340ef9feb9b81835ebfc3ba7a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was significant (0%–54%) for Italy in 2022-06. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.
about ItalyCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
band
significant
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-06
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Italy
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
value_max_pct
53.9332917105004
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-06-01
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
band
significant
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-06
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Italy
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
value_max_pct
53.9332917105004
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-06-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint deb484c11193be9b8a7fdf1e3a4ffcf593fa6b9473b62374c5076aa9424dd199 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Available evidence does not show a physical supply reduction: Italy's reported crude imports in 2022-06 were +12.8% against the mean of the previous 12 months.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-06
country
Italy
change_pct
12.796042921182655
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
partner_role
ORIGIN
value_tonnes
5594025
baseline_months
12
observation_date
2022-06-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
baseline_mean_tonnes
4959416
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
min_baseline_months
6
baseline_months_used
12
supply_reduction_pct
-10
supply_baseline_months
12
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-06
country
Italy
change_pct
12.796042921182655
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
partner_role
ORIGIN
value_tonnes
5594025
baseline_months
12
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-06-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
baseline_mean_tonnes
4959416
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.supply.no_reduction v1.1 · Fingerprint faa09cffaf37567cf2256ed9ca41b502ac19f35329d9cf81ccd513d1865bf3f7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In 2022-06, Italy's oil stocks stood 1.6% below their trailing 12-month mean — inside the 5% either side that this site reads as in line with it, with 83.0 days of cover (as published).
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-06
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
direction
below
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_IT
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
days_of_cover
83
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
-0.10215876043711876
observation_date
2022-06-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
15289953
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
observation_gap_days
0
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
15543741.916666666
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
-1.6327401601704625
trailing_12m_observations
12
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
band_applied_to
the rounded figure printed in the sentence
days_of_cover_basis
as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
trailing_window_months
12
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
-1.6327401601704625
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
-1.6
inventory_material_deviation_pct
5
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-06
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
direction
below
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_IT
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
days_of_cover
83
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
-0.10215876043711876
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-06-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
15289953
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
15543741.916666666
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
-1.6327401601704625
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
trailing_12m_observations
12
Template event.inventory_level.in_line v1.1 · Fingerprint dc82076ba4d346ae3b9047da65f089cd474db9bf9b5eebf093ccfa54874a8f36 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Summary of what can be checked here
Only part of the chain can be checked for Italy around Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022: 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was moderate (11–22%) over the period covered. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.
about ItalyUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
country
Italy
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
dependence_band
moderate
dependence_range
11–22%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
channels_total
8
channels_available
4
verdict_partial_min_channels
3
verdict_assessable_min_channels
8
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
country
Italy
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
dependence_band
moderate
statement_topic
event
dependence_range
11–22%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint 7a92ea55294a2822a5fc404e2a684b5f728e127bafdf7e481421dc3caa96b44a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved +5.7%, which is 1.3 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
129.2
status
OBSERVED
z_score
2.0172282715868546
t0_value
122.2
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
5.7283142389525255
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-06-08
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.2799598046880034
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
6.999999999999986
change_pct_from_t0
5.7283142389525255
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.4753860378832995
change_in_volatility_units
1.2799598046880034
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
129.2
status
OBSERVED
z_score
2.0172282715868546
t0_value
122.2
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
5.7283142389525255
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-06-08
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.2799598046880034
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
6.999999999999986
change_pct_from_t0
5.7283142389525255
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.4753860378832995
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.2799598046880034
Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint f87dd225bc59dba803e038025a29e47ed148997fb21d856c0cd78839753ee67a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved -2.4%, which is 0.5 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
119.21
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.8887326572425913
t0_value
122.2
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-2.4468085106383053
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-07-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.5467256880024499
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-2.990000000000009
change_pct_from_t0
-2.4468085106383053
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.4753860378832995
change_in_volatility_units
-0.5467256880024499
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
119.21
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.8887326572425913
t0_value
122.2
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-2.4468085106383053
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-07-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.5467256880024499
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-2.990000000000009
change_pct_from_t0
-2.4468085106383053
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.4753860378832995
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.5467256880024499
Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint fad3fa12c4cda01a6223521c8666f80ff0cc67ef8185a2d6e383ba814fecdcc1 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved -18.7%, which is 4.2 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
99.34
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.355832693810513
t0_value
122.2
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-18.707037643207855
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-08-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.179983019309688
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-22.86
change_pct_from_t0
-18.707037643207855
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.4753860378832995
change_in_volatility_units
-4.179983019309688
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
99.34
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.355832693810513
t0_value
122.2
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-18.707037643207855
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-08-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.179983019309688
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-22.86
change_pct_from_t0
-18.707037643207855
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.4753860378832995
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-4.179983019309688
Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3c93fc5aedb651c26598bd6d9310189a42a1c8df629f57a43bf0be16cf35bb23 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 5682d55cccd2b29a396302436312a88aeeb0ee29362398f48b45370bc339e780 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 9f428e998d4f8e3f0b62ce0e589b72e73c5860218140f2727aa93741661c7d36 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 56fb16ffc2601451cfda44b453655b8c4394e0f659ccd04a0f7a8a13e347bf80 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 98f34b162486945bf201f66ee3c233374109d50156f5d4ec98817b088ac4af77 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Italy: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.

Europe Brent spot FOB

reported crude oil imports, all origins

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Not available: licence-blocked

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

EU refined-product benchmark

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

wholesale / rack price

Is Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022 really the reason?

What the pump price did around this date

Actual vs crude-only: Italy, diesel (automotive gas oil)

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

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