Events / Tax change

Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022

Dates: 2022-06-01 → 2022-08-31
Dated to: the day
Status: Ended
Scope: Germany

What the sources said

Energiesteuersenkungsgesetz (Gesetz zur Aenderung des Energiesteuerrechts zur temporaeren Absenkung der Energiesteuer fuer Kraftstoffe) of 24 May 2022, BGBl. I 2022 p. 810. The Bundestag record of 19 May 2022 states the reduction ran from 1 June to 31 August 2022 and cut the energy-tax rate by 29.55 ct/litre on Benzin and by 14.04 ct/litre on Dieselkraftstoff. The same change is present in the primary tax series this project already holds: the tax rates taken from the European Commission Weekly Oil Bulletin duties and taxes file record German excise on Euro-super 95 petrol at 0.6545 EUR/litre before, 0.3590 EUR/litre effective 2022-06-01 and 0.6545 EUR/litre again effective 2022-08-31, and on diesel at 0.4704, then 0.3300, then 0.4704 EUR/litre on the same dates. The two records agree to the cent. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about how the change reached pump prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official

Retrieved 2026-09-25 14:07 UTCRevision 2

Source documents (3)

CountryGermany France Netherlands Poland Finland Estonia Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czechia Denmark Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden

FuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Lithuania, Diesel (automotive gas oil). 16 series can be drawn; 4 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

193 published readings, 15 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 52 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-04-29	108.4	-13.840	-11.33%	-2.53
−14	2022-05-18	110.0	-12.160	-9.95%	-2.22
−7	2022-05-25	116.4	-5.790	-4.74%	-1.06
−3	2022-05-27	121.2	-1.010	-0.83%	-0.18
−1	2022-05-31	125.5	+3.330	+2.73%	+0.61
T0	2022-06-01same print as T0	122.2	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-06-01same print as T0	122.2	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-06-03	125.7	+3.480	+2.85%	+0.64
+7	2022-06-08	129.2	+7.000	+5.73%	+1.28
+14	2022-06-15	125.0	+2.760	+2.26%	+0.50
+30	2022-07-01	119.2	-2.990	-2.45%	-0.55
+60	2022-07-29	111.5	-10.690	-8.75%	-1.95
+90	2022-08-30	99.34	-22.860	-18.71%	-4.18

One volatility unit for this series is 4.48%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (764 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-01	197,700	-74,100	-27.26%	-1.03
−14	2022-05-01	197,700	-74,100	-27.26%	-1.03
−7	2022-05-01	197,700	-74,100	-27.26%	-1.03
−3	2022-05-01	197,700	-74,100	-27.26%	-1.03
−1	2022-05-01	197,700	-74,100	-27.26%	-1.03
T0	2022-06-01same print as T0	271,800	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-06-01same print as T0	271,800	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-06-01same print as T0	271,800	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-06-01same print as T0	271,800	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2022-06-01same print as T0	271,800	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2022-07-01	719,200	+447,400	+164.61%	+6.20
+60	2022-07-01	719,200	+447,400	+164.61%	+6.20
+90	2022-08-01	925,700	+653,900	+240.58%	+9.06

One volatility unit for this series is 26.55%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-02	1.001	-0.095	-8.70%	-2.04
−14	2022-05-16	1.047	-0.049	-4.47%	-1.05
−7	2022-05-23	1.071	-0.025	-2.29%	-0.54
−3	2022-05-23	1.071	-0.025	-2.29%	-0.54
−1	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.096	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.096	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.096	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.096	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-06-06	1.132	+0.036	+3.32%	+0.78
+14	2022-06-13	1.160	+0.064	+5.86%	+1.37
+30	2022-06-27	1.159	+0.063	+5.77%	+1.35
+60	2022-07-25	1.145	+0.049	+4.50%	+1.06
+90	2022-08-29	1.102	+0.006	+0.59%	+0.14

One volatility unit for this series is 4.26%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-02	1.052	-0.019	-1.76%	-4.20
−14	2022-05-18	1.052	-0.019	-1.76%	-4.23
−7	2022-05-25	1.066	-0.006	-0.52%	-1.25
−3	2022-05-27	1.072	+0.001	+0.09%	+0.22
−1	2022-05-31	1.071	+0.000	+0.01%	+0.02
T0	2022-06-01same print as T0	1.071	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-06-02	1.069	-0.002	-0.19%	-0.45
+3	2022-06-03	1.073	+0.002	+0.17%	+0.40
+7	2022-06-08	1.074	+0.003	+0.25%	+0.60
+14	2022-06-15	1.043	-0.028	-2.62%	-6.28
+30	2022-07-01	1.043	-0.029	-2.68%	-6.42
+60	2022-07-29	1.020	-0.051	-4.80%	-11.50
+90	2022-08-30	1.003	-0.068	-6.33%	-15.16

One volatility unit for this series is 0.42%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (770 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-01	0–41.23	not published	not published	not published
−14	2022-05-01	0–41.23	not published	not published	not published
−7	2022-05-01	0–41.23	not published	not published	not published
−3	2022-05-01	0–41.23	not published	not published	not published
−1	2022-05-01	0–41.23	not published	not published	not published
T0	2022-06-01	0–31.41	not published	not published	not published
+1	2022-06-01	0–31.41	not published	not published	not published
+3	2022-06-01	0–31.41	not published	not published	not published
+7	2022-06-01	0–31.41	not published	not published	not published
+14	2022-06-01	0–31.41	not published	not published	not published
+30	2022-07-01	0–45.21	not published	not published	not published
+60	2022-07-01	0–45.21	not published	not published	not published
+90	2022-08-01	0–36.98	not published	not published	not published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-01	0	0.000	not published	not published
−14	2022-05-01	0	0.000	not published	not published
−7	2022-05-01	0	0.000	not published	not published
−3	2022-05-01	0	0.000	not published	not published
−1	2022-05-01	0	0.000	not published	not published
T0	2022-06-01same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
+1	2022-06-01same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
+3	2022-06-01same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
+7	2022-06-01same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
+14	2022-06-01same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
+30	2022-07-01	0–1.778	not published	not published	not published
+60	2022-07-01	0–1.778	not published	not published	not published
+90	2022-08-01	0	0.000	not published	not published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ %
−30	2022-05-01	86.00	0.00%
−14	2022-05-01	86.00	0.00%
−7	2022-05-01	86.00	0.00%
−3	2022-05-01	86.00	0.00%
−1	2022-05-01	86.00	0.00%
T0	2022-06-01same print as T0	86.00	0.00%
+1	2022-06-01same print as T0	86.00	0.00%
+3	2022-06-01same print as T0	86.00	0.00%
+7	2022-06-01same print as T0	86.00	0.00%
+14	2022-06-01same print as T0	86.00	0.00%
+30	2022-07-01	86.00	0.00%
+60	2022-07-01	86.00	0.00%
+90	2022-08-01	86.00	0.00%

One volatility unit for this series is 1.92%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-02	0.6576	-0.070	-9.62%	-1.20
−14	2022-05-16	0.6754	-0.052	-7.17%	-0.90
−7	2022-05-23	0.6922	-0.035	-4.85%	-0.61
−3	2022-05-23	0.6922	-0.035	-4.85%	-0.61
−1	2022-05-30same print as T0	0.7275	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-05-30same print as T0	0.7275	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-05-30same print as T0	0.7275	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-05-30same print as T0	0.7275	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-06-06	0.7496	+0.022	+3.04%	+0.38
+14	2022-06-13	0.7533	+0.026	+3.54%	+0.44
+30	2022-06-27	0.7214	-0.006	-0.84%	-0.11
+60	2022-07-25	0.6761	-0.051	-7.07%	-0.88
+90	2022-08-29	0.5990	-0.129	-17.67%	-2.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.00%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-01	1,016,700	-63,600	-5.89%	-0.75
−14	2022-05-01	1,016,700	-63,600	-5.89%	-0.75
−7	2022-05-01	1,016,700	-63,600	-5.89%	-0.75
−3	2022-05-01	1,016,700	-63,600	-5.89%	-0.75
−1	2022-05-01	1,016,700	-63,600	-5.89%	-0.75
T0	2022-06-01same print as T0	1,080,300	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-06-01same print as T0	1,080,300	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-06-01same print as T0	1,080,300	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-06-01same print as T0	1,080,300	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2022-06-01same print as T0	1,080,300	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2022-07-01	1,040,300	-40,000	-3.70%	-0.47
+60	2022-07-01	1,040,300	-40,000	-3.70%	-0.47
+90	2022-08-01	1,142,100	+61,800	+5.72%	+0.73

One volatility unit for this series is 7.82%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-02	0.0850	+0.085	not published	not published
−14	2022-05-16	0.0605	+0.061	not published	not published
−7	2022-05-23	0.0214	+0.021	not published	not published
−3	2022-05-23	0.0214	+0.021	not published	not published
−1	2022-05-30same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
T0	2022-05-30same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
+1	2022-05-30same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
+3	2022-05-30same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
+7	2022-06-06	0.0355	+0.035	not published	not published
+14	2022-06-13	0.0648	+0.065	not published	not published
+30	2022-06-27	0.1276	+0.128	not published	not published
+60	2022-07-25	0.0207	+0.021	not published	not published
+90	2022-08-29	0.0473	+0.047	not published	not published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-02	1.764	-0.013	-0.71%	-0.38
−14	2022-05-16	1.790	+0.014	+0.78%	+0.42
−7	2022-05-23	1.772	-0.004	-0.25%	-0.13
−3	2022-05-23	1.772	-0.004	-0.25%	-0.13
−1	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.776	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.776	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.776	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.776	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-06-06	1.863	+0.087	+4.89%	+2.60
+14	2022-06-13	1.932	+0.156	+8.78%	+4.67
+30	2022-06-27	2.007	+0.231	+13.00%	+6.92
+60	2022-07-25	1.861	+0.085	+4.77%	+2.54
+90	2022-08-29	1.841	+0.065	+3.66%	+1.95

One volatility unit for this series is 1.88%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-02	1.086	-0.010	-0.95%	-0.33
−14	2022-05-16	1.107	+0.012	+1.05%	+0.36
−7	2022-05-23	1.092	-0.004	-0.33%	-0.12
−3	2022-05-23	1.092	-0.004	-0.33%	-0.12
−1	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.096	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.096	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.096	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-05-30same print as T0	1.096	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-06-06	1.168	+0.072	+6.55%	+2.26
+14	2022-06-13	1.225	+0.129	+11.77%	+4.06
+30	2022-06-27	1.287	+0.191	+17.42%	+6.00
+60	2022-07-25	1.166	+0.070	+6.39%	+2.20
+90	2022-08-29	1.150	+0.054	+4.91%	+1.69

One volatility unit for this series is 2.90%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-05-02	0.6781	-0.002	-0.32%	-0.37
−14	2022-05-16	0.6827	+0.002	+0.35%	+0.41
−7	2022-05-23	0.6795	-0.001	-0.11%	-0.13
−3	2022-05-23	0.6795	-0.001	-0.11%	-0.13
−1	2022-05-30same print as T0	0.6803	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-05-30same print as T0	0.6803	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-05-30same print as T0	0.6803	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-05-30same print as T0	0.6803	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-06-06	0.6954	+0.015	+2.22%	+2.57
+14	2022-06-13	0.7074	+0.027	+3.98%	+4.61
+30	2022-06-27	0.7204	+0.040	+5.89%	+6.83
+60	2022-07-25	0.6950	+0.015	+2.16%	+2.51
+90	2022-08-29	0.6916	+0.011	+1.66%	+1.92

One volatility unit for this series is 0.86%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-04-29	85.85	+30.052	+53.86%	+5.76
−14	2022-05-18	74.63	+18.838	+33.76%	+3.61
−7	2022-05-25	54.28	-1.518	-2.72%	-0.29
−3	2022-05-27	47.73	-8.062	-14.45%	-1.55
−1	2022-05-31	42.22	-13.578	-24.34%	-2.60
T0	2022-06-01same print as T0	55.80	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-06-01same print as T0	55.80	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-06-03	60.04	+4.248	+7.61%	+0.81
+7	2022-06-08	55.39	-0.406	-0.73%	-0.08
+14	2022-06-15	67.36	+11.562	+20.72%	+2.22
+30	2022-07-01	49.88	-5.914	-10.60%	-1.13
+60	2022-07-29	39.98	-15.812	-28.34%	-3.03
+90	2022-08-30	60.97	+5.178	+9.28%	+0.99

One volatility unit for this series is 9.34%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-04-29	35.83	-21.818	-37.85%	-0.21
−14	2022-05-18	48.89	-8.756	-15.19%	-0.08
−7	2022-05-25	47.31	-10.338	-17.93%	-0.10
−3	2022-05-27	51.09	-6.550	-11.36%	-0.06
−1	2022-05-31	47.09	-10.554	-18.31%	-0.10
T0	2022-06-01same print as T0	57.64	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-06-01same print as T0	57.64	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-06-03	63.70	+6.054	+10.50%	+0.06
+7	2022-06-08	54.93	-2.716	-4.71%	-0.03
+14	2022-06-15	40.73	-16.914	-29.34%	-0.16
+30	2022-07-01	40.89	-16.750	-29.06%	-0.16
+60	2022-07-29	30.91	-26.732	-46.37%	-0.26
+90	2022-08-30	14.86	-42.786	-74.22%	-0.41

One volatility unit for this series is 181.24%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-04-29	81.86	+38.872	+90.43%	+0.52
−14	2022-05-18	35.78	-7.202	-16.75%	-0.10
−7	2022-05-25	40.71	-2.274	-5.29%	-0.03
−3	2022-05-27	40.59	-2.392	-5.56%	-0.03
−1	2022-05-31	34.70	-8.286	-19.28%	-0.11
T0	2022-06-01same print as T0	42.99	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-06-01same print as T0	42.99	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-06-03	46.69	+3.702	+8.61%	+0.05
+7	2022-06-08	42.16	-0.826	-1.92%	-0.01
+14	2022-06-15	56.44	+13.452	+31.29%	+0.18
+30	2022-07-01	39.51	-3.478	-8.09%	-0.05
+60	2022-07-29	31.37	-11.612	-27.01%	-0.15
+90	2022-08-30	49.63	+6.648	+15.47%	+0.09

One volatility unit for this series is 175.17%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

T0 is 2022-06-01. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022 really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, each with its status and one published figure.
Dimension	Status	Published figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.	Range only	0–45.21 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2022-07) · no midpoint
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.	Range only	0–1.778 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2022-07) · no midpoint
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.	Observed	86.00 days of cover at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)0.00% from the level at T0 = 0.00 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.	Observed	119.2 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)-2.45% from the level at T0 = -0.55 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.	Unavailable	EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.	Unavailable	No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.	Unavailable	Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.	Observed	1,040,300 tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)-3.70% from the level at T0 = -0.47 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.	Unavailable	Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.	Observed	1.287 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-06-27)+17.42% from the level at T0 = +6.00 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.	Observed	2.007 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-06-27)+13.00% from the level at T0 = +6.92 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2022-05-25 to 2022-07-01 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Lithuania, diesel (automotive gas oil)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/de-tankrabatt-2022/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'de-tankrabatt-2022' and country 'lithuania'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Lithuania's pre-tax petrol price moved +9.0%, which is 3.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.21123
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
8.291964211457122
t0_value
1.11166
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
8.956875303600015
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.526880406312236
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.09956999999999994
change_pct_from_t0
8.956875303600015
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.5396027853877445
change_in_volatility_units
3.526880406312236
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.21123
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
8.291964211457122
t0_value
1.11166
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
8.956875303600015
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.526880406312236
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.09956999999999994
change_pct_from_t0
8.956875303600015
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.5396027853877445
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
3.526880406312236
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 2825c597a724a75453e722fc2e79ebc66801e2e9d22d8c96201fcc54ad6c9f71 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Lithuania's pre-tax petrol price moved +10.3%, which is 4.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.22669
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
8.7718236620378
t0_value
1.11166
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
10.347588291384053
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
4.074490842001573
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.11502999999999997
change_pct_from_t0
10.347588291384053
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.5396027853877445
change_in_volatility_units
4.074490842001573
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.22669
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
8.7718236620378
t0_value
1.11166
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
10.347588291384053
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
4.074490842001573
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.11502999999999997
change_pct_from_t0
10.347588291384053
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.5396027853877445
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
4.074490842001573
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint d7bc73498a69d7e62d3071b8d214206991968a05ac678006b7cc99b07b1d449a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Lithuania's pre-tax petrol price moved -11.1%, which is 4.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.98792
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
1.3606955239298866
t0_value
1.11166
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-11.131101235989426
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.383008752406113
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.12374000000000007
change_pct_from_t0
-11.131101235989426
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.5396027853877445
change_in_volatility_units
-4.383008752406113
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.98792
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
1.3606955239298866
t0_value
1.11166
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-11.131101235989426
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.383008752406113
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.12374000000000007
change_pct_from_t0
-11.131101235989426
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.5396027853877445
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-4.383008752406113
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint cdcb61fb7c41b24b55a599ba37d3d9cccb6d689ac6a131ba8cc49553b0a29815 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Lithuania's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +6.3%, which is 4.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
2.02945
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
8.291756688064645
t0_value
1.90897
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
6.31125685579135
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
4.33900383848949
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.12048000000000014
change_pct_from_t0
6.31125685579135
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.454540509922307
change_in_volatility_units
4.33900383848949
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
2.02945
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
8.291756688064645
t0_value
1.90897
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
6.31125685579135
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
4.33900383848949
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.12048000000000014
change_pct_from_t0
6.31125685579135
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.454540509922307
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
4.33900383848949
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 4190cab259ba18209d2352fa6d110cf41391c261f851e5377374192dea8bbee5 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Lithuania's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +7.3%, which is 5.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
2.04815
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
8.771436611726957
t0_value
1.90897
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
7.290842705752321
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
5.012471399742421
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.13918000000000008
change_pct_from_t0
7.290842705752321
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.454540509922307
change_in_volatility_units
5.012471399742421
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
2.04815
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
8.771436611726957
t0_value
1.90897
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
7.290842705752321
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
5.012471399742421
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.13918000000000008
change_pct_from_t0
7.290842705752321
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.454540509922307
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
5.012471399742421
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3cc44a4a906aca9175f93589945d7ca46065064a74847e8e3bcfff80f30cc384 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Lithuania's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -7.8%, which is 5.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.7592400000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
1.3605100478083045
t0_value
1.90897
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-7.843496754794466
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-5.392422350074952
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.14972999999999992
change_pct_from_t0
-7.843496754794466
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.454540509922307
change_in_volatility_units
-5.392422350074952
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.7592400000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
1.3605100478083045
t0_value
1.90897
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-7.843496754794466
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-5.392422350074952
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.14972999999999992
change_pct_from_t0
-7.843496754794466
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.454540509922307
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-5.392422350074952
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint e1ba8ae6dd152cb13208843d08c1a63caee278f3951fa7425db9ee1ffa7b521d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Lithuania's tax-component petrol price moved +2.6%, which is 3.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LithuaniaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.81822
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
8.29076814963569
t0_value
0.79731
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
2.622568386198591
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
7
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.8494245779678313
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.020909999999999984
change_pct_from_t0
2.622568386198591
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
0.6812884193676251
change_in_volatility_units
3.8494245779678313
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.81822
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
8.29076814963569
t0_value
0.79731
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
2.622568386198591
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.8494245779678313
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.020909999999999984
change_pct_from_t0
2.622568386198591
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
0.6812884193676251
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
3.8494245779678313
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 96c05a625c19e1cbe08a36cbbc653f268f1dc8ce710068824d8728e12d7efc58 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Lithuania's tax-component petrol price moved +3.0%, which is 4.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LithuaniaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.82146
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
8.76959326202107
t0_value
0.79731
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
3.028934793242278
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
30
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
4.445892087896854
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.024150000000000005
change_pct_from_t0
3.028934793242278
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
0.6812884193676251
change_in_volatility_units
4.445892087896854
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.82146
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
8.76959326202107
t0_value
0.79731
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
3.028934793242278
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
4.445892087896854
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.024150000000000005
change_pct_from_t0
3.028934793242278
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
0.6812884193676251
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
4.445892087896854
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 6278e5a5d9e402acbcfe5bb453d92c4496f810f053ca6af25fdaa69131af246e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Lithuania's tax-component petrol price moved -3.3%, which is 4.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LithuaniaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.7713200000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
1.3596268623288637
t0_value
0.79731
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-3.2597107774892886
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
90
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.7846267231651565
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.025989999999999847
change_pct_from_t0
-3.2597107774892886
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
0.6812884193676251
change_in_volatility_units
-4.7846267231651565
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.7713200000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
1.3596268623288637
t0_value
0.79731
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-3.2597107774892886
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.7846267231651565
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.025989999999999847
change_pct_from_t0
-3.2597107774892886
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
0.6812884193676251
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-4.7846267231651565
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint fe5ee3ec844979f01d26718efa030483bdb180988c85838efdc3865e6dd22d1a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Lithuania's pre-tax diesel price moved +6.6%, which is 2.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.16781
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
1.3487365539042977
t0_value
1.09599
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
6.55297949798812
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
2.2585359868464927
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.07182
change_pct_from_t0
6.55297949798812
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.9014279764201563
change_in_volatility_units
2.2585359868464927
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.16781
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
1.3487365539042977
t0_value
1.09599
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
6.55297949798812
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
2.2585359868464927
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.07182
change_pct_from_t0
6.55297949798812
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.9014279764201563
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
2.2585359868464927
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 472ea8df8d1dca9d0d031114682dfbfd92e93f8e87202754bea3fd0e29798007 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Lithuania's pre-tax diesel price moved +17.4%, which is 6.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.2868800000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
3.55344429540481
t0_value
1.09599
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
17.417129718336867
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
6.00295091240779
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.19089000000000023
change_pct_from_t0
17.417129718336867
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.9014279764201563
change_in_volatility_units
6.00295091240779
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.2868800000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
3.55344429540481
t0_value
1.09599
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
17.417129718336867
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
6.00295091240779
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.19089000000000023
change_pct_from_t0
17.417129718336867
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.9014279764201563
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
6.00295091240779
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 00ff8436dcad57ac5aae8aa03557d1e3b56ffcb7d09666b4908ca9f01e3358db · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Lithuania's pre-tax diesel price moved +4.9%, which is 1.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.14979
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
1.015077080469856
t0_value
1.09599
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
4.908803912444463
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.6918579238699731
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.05380000000000007
change_pct_from_t0
4.908803912444463
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.9014279764201563
change_in_volatility_units
1.6918579238699731
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.14979
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
1.015077080469856
t0_value
1.09599
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
4.908803912444463
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.6918579238699731
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.05380000000000007
change_pct_from_t0
4.908803912444463
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.9014279764201563
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.6918579238699731
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 04ca0bcdfd26e76906ca86ef40c752fd248db6dbd947867ba07467d916697d02 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Lithuania's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +4.9%, which is 2.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.8631700000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
1.3487662704158272
t0_value
1.77627
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
4.892274260106864
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
2.6017485417267436
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0869000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
4.892274260106864
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.8803793608970107
change_in_volatility_units
2.6017485417267436
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.8631700000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
1.3487662704158272
t0_value
1.77627
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
4.892274260106864
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
2.6017485417267436
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0869000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
4.892274260106864
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.8803793608970107
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
2.6017485417267436
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint c422f9b4914723be05f9890c7fd49244a87e8198ec7ce4366aa4aadf2a08c20e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Lithuania's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +13.0%, which is 6.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
2.00724
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
3.553403853565442
t0_value
1.77627
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
13.003090746339234
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
6.9151422403063805
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2309699999999999
change_pct_from_t0
13.003090746339234
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.8803793608970107
change_in_volatility_units
6.9151422403063805
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
2.00724
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
3.553403853565442
t0_value
1.77627
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
13.003090746339234
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
6.9151422403063805
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2309699999999999
change_pct_from_t0
13.003090746339234
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.8803793608970107
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
6.9151422403063805
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint d614a8e3cee1c83895d2d8753c3766684865b7751db39c7d3bdee8332588cb89 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Lithuania's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +3.7%, which is 1.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.84137
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
1.0151708007645306
t0_value
1.77627
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
3.664983364015602
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.9490659386238258
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.06509999999999994
change_pct_from_t0
3.664983364015602
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.8803793608970107
change_in_volatility_units
1.9490659386238258
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
1.84137
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
1.0151708007645306
t0_value
1.77627
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
3.664983364015602
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.9490659386238258
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.06509999999999994
change_pct_from_t0
3.664983364015602
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.8803793608970107
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.9490659386238258
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 8a13f0b7794f3a495a7ecde12dc339a1b176e94f28d0c7a6c9e620aada5a6e1d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Lithuania's tax-component diesel price moved +2.2%, which is 2.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LithuaniaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.6953600000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
1.3489077561958205
t0_value
0.68028
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
2.216734285882314
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
7
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_LT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
2.568824292144654
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.015080000000000204
change_pct_from_t0
2.216734285882314
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
0.8629372949566793
change_in_volatility_units
2.568824292144654
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.6953600000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
1.3489077561958205
t0_value
0.68028
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
2.216734285882314
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_LT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
2.568824292144654
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.015080000000000204
change_pct_from_t0
2.216734285882314
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
0.8629372949566793
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
2.568824292144654
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 891d158d6274c980608c2a9a5a90f123d9a4ffd1f143aac969f1b290c467cbdf · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Lithuania's tax-component diesel price moved +5.9%, which is 6.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LithuaniaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.7203599999999998
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
3.553211214354956
t0_value
0.68028
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
5.891691656376754
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
30
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_LT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
6.827485253922796
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.04007999999999978
change_pct_from_t0
5.891691656376754
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
0.8629372949566793
change_in_volatility_units
6.827485253922796
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.7203599999999998
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
3.553211214354956
t0_value
0.68028
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
5.891691656376754
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_LT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-06-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
6.827485253922796
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.04007999999999978
change_pct_from_t0
5.891691656376754
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
0.8629372949566793
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
6.827485253922796
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3e1b438671b1ea8b9cf07c413cf7f4a24220a6d0ddb1afdba04cf0643a1c2115 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Lithuania's tax-component diesel price moved +1.7%, which is 1.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about LithuaniaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.69158
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
1.0156170733221335
t0_value
0.68028
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.6610807314635117
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
90
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_LT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.9249147547237488
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.011299999999999977
change_pct_from_t0
1.6610807314635117
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
0.8629372949566793
change_in_volatility_units
1.9249147547237488
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
0.69158
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
z_score
1.0156170733221335
t0_value
0.68028
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.6610807314635117
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
TAX_COMPONENT_LT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-component
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-08-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.9249147547237488
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.011299999999999977
change_pct_from_t0
1.6610807314635117
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
0.8629372949566793
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.9249147547237488
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint c29c2d04d43660c4c893163b63af95315867214129d4ba07487a33f0a737618f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 4 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Lithuania's pre-tax petrol price by +4.0 c/L (range +2.4–+5.5); it actually moved +11.5 c/L, leaving +7.5 c/L not explained by crude.
about LithuaniaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Lithuania
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-06-27
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-05-27
observation_date
2022-06-27
gap_eur_per_litre
0.0754061984231987
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-05-30
actual_eur_per_litre
0.11502999999999997
expected_eur_per_litre
0.03962380157680127
proxy_volatility_units
-0.0631714707771465
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-5.850000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.024291775866159288
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.05495582728744335
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
181.24455741814873
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Lithuania
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-06-27
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-05-27
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-06-27
gap_eur_per_litre
0.0754061984231987
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-05-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.11502999999999997
expected_eur_per_litre
0.03962380157680127
proxy_volatility_units
-0.0631714707771465
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-5.850000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.024291775866159288
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.05495582728744335
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
181.24455741814873
Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 792a8206a6e86f258d41ab916334ae808a81b99b27a9f1fb9e6c00406d8cb4f3 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 13 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Lithuania's pre-tax petrol price by -3.0 c/L (range -8.3–+2.2); it actually moved -12.4 c/L, leaving -9.3 c/L not explained by crude.
about LithuaniaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Lithuania
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-08-26
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-05-27
observation_date
2022-08-29
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.0933658687659687
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-05-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.12374000000000007
expected_eur_per_litre
-0.03037413123403138
proxy_volatility_units
-0.3403268500876152
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-31.516000000000002
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.08307910950094732
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.022330847032884363
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
181.24455741814873
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Lithuania
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-08-26
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-05-27
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-08-29
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.0933658687659687
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-05-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.12374000000000007
expected_eur_per_litre
-0.03037413123403138
proxy_volatility_units
-0.3403268500876152
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-31.516000000000002
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.08307910950094732
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.022330847032884363
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
181.24455741814873
Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 67ddf24844588937eb82e595f4fe159e3222323f0b7f6e8c75733bdbb56450d0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 4 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Lithuania's pre-tax diesel price by +6.3 c/L (range +4.0–+8.6); it actually moved +19.1 c/L, leaving +12.8 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 11.5 $/bbl.
about LithuaniaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Lithuania
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LT_DIESEL
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-06-27
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-05-27
observation_date
2022-06-27
gap_eur_per_litre
0.12760944784551378
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-05-30
actual_eur_per_litre
0.19089000000000023
expected_eur_per_litre
0.06328055215448644
proxy_volatility_units
2.587160761067042
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
11.537999999999997
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.040352170787399964
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.08620893352157433
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.342848145796136
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Lithuania
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LT_DIESEL
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-06-27
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-05-27
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-06-27
gap_eur_per_litre
0.12760944784551378
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-05-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.19089000000000023
expected_eur_per_litre
0.06328055215448644
proxy_volatility_units
2.587160761067042
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
11.537999999999997
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.040352170787399964
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.08620893352157433
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.342848145796136
Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 6178d3352d347a0ee4a8e7c7a494fdbc6dc1f0a3d5378cc1ac6df4d751bd5e31 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 13 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Lithuania's pre-tax diesel price by +0.6 c/L (range -5.6–+6.9); it actually moved +5.4 c/L, leaving +4.7 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 19.3 $/bbl.
about LithuaniaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Lithuania
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LT_DIESEL
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-08-26
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-05-27
observation_date
2022-08-29
gap_eur_per_litre
0.04732055962905008
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-05-30
actual_eur_per_litre
0.05380000000000007
expected_eur_per_litre
0.006479440370949989
proxy_volatility_units
4.337945231721529
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
19.345999999999997
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.055667936834376104
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.0686268175762774
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.342848145796136
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Lithuania
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LT_DIESEL
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-08-26
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-05-27
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-08-29
gap_eur_per_litre
0.04732055962905008
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-05-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.05380000000000007
expected_eur_per_litre
0.006479440370949989
proxy_volatility_units
4.337945231721529
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
19.345999999999997
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.055667936834376104
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.0686268175762774
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.342848145796136
Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 97d77ceac4e63b2b317da0973867885c9bf450c550bbf8d5d96b7ed18c1dfa04 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was moderate (0%–31%) for Lithuania in 2022-06. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.
about LithuaniaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-06
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Lithuania
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
value_max_pct
31.4061810154525
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-06-01
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-06
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Lithuania
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
value_max_pct
31.4061810154525
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-06-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint 8af7c26c54bb6d6e35405c868661d59132442e7052b504ac82943b788a82ddd8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was limited (0%) for Lithuania in 2022-06.
about LithuaniaCalculatedLow
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-06
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
value_max_pct
0
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
COMPUTED
value_point_pct
0
observation_date
2022-06-01
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-06
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
value_max_pct
0
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
COMPUTED
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
0
observation_date
2022-06-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.dependence.point v1.1 · Fingerprint 26c8e0f7d39e1906c6e9de5fa2e05673261ce3e6a3a6f62e21a1540f0455e991 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Available evidence does show a physical supply reduction: Lithuania's reported crude imports in 2022-06 were -62.4% against the mean of the previous 12 months.
about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-06
country
Lithuania
change_pct
-62.38886518525352
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
partner_role
ORIGIN
value_tonnes
271800
baseline_months
12
observation_date
2022-06-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
baseline_mean_tonnes
722658.3333333334
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
min_baseline_months
6
baseline_months_used
12
supply_reduction_pct
-10
supply_baseline_months
12
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-06
country
Lithuania
change_pct
-62.38886518525352
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
partner_role
ORIGIN
value_tonnes
271800
baseline_months
12
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-06-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
baseline_mean_tonnes
722658.3333333334
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.supply.reduction v1.1 · Fingerprint 9b8bf4e78a53964614bac67d1257aa79be907f08603b8867cceb96e99a8ebfe9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In 2022-06, Lithuania's oil stocks stood 7.5% below their trailing 12-month mean, with 86.0 days of cover (as published).
about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-06
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
direction
below
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_LT
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
days_of_cover
86
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
6.2555326054883444
observation_date
2022-06-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
1080300
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
observation_gap_days
0
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
1167391.6666666667
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
-7.460363916708903
trailing_12m_observations
12
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
band_applied_to
the rounded figure printed in the sentence
days_of_cover_basis
as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
trailing_window_months
12
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
-7.460363916708903
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
-7.5
inventory_material_deviation_pct
5
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-06
status
OBSERVED
country
Lithuania
direction
below
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_LT
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
days_of_cover
86
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
6.2555326054883444
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-06-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
1080300
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
1167391.6666666667
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
-7.460363916708903
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
trailing_12m_observations
12
Template event.inventory_level.below v1.1 · Fingerprint dbd4592629e771cf52dde0577e2b178ae8912606da62d1446549528d11fe0046 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Summary of what can be checked here
Only part of the chain can be checked for Lithuania around Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022: 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was moderate (0–31%) over the period covered. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.
about LithuaniaUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
country
Lithuania
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
dependence_band
moderate
dependence_range
0–31%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.reduction
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
channels_total
8
channels_available
4
verdict_partial_min_channels
3
verdict_assessable_min_channels
8
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
country
Lithuania
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
LT
country_name
Lithuania
country_slug
lithuania
dependence_band
moderate
statement_topic
event
dependence_range
0–31%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.reduction
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint 15fd08098801f57a61c0f2cb1a4f18d873ff9cf4710d7203c7045d1ba7a9050b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved +5.7%, which is 1.3 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
129.2
status
OBSERVED
z_score
2.0172282715868546
t0_value
122.2
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
5.7283142389525255
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-06-08
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.2799598046880034
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
6.999999999999986
change_pct_from_t0
5.7283142389525255
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.4753860378832995
change_in_volatility_units
1.2799598046880034
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
129.2
status
OBSERVED
z_score
2.0172282715868546
t0_value
122.2
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
5.7283142389525255
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-06-08
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.2799598046880034
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
6.999999999999986
change_pct_from_t0
5.7283142389525255
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.4753860378832995
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.2799598046880034
Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint f87dd225bc59dba803e038025a29e47ed148997fb21d856c0cd78839753ee67a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved -2.4%, which is 0.5 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
119.21
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.8887326572425913
t0_value
122.2
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-2.4468085106383053
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-07-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.5467256880024499
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-2.990000000000009
change_pct_from_t0
-2.4468085106383053
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.4753860378832995
change_in_volatility_units
-0.5467256880024499
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
119.21
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.8887326572425913
t0_value
122.2
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-2.4468085106383053
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-07-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.5467256880024499
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-2.990000000000009
change_pct_from_t0
-2.4468085106383053
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.4753860378832995
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.5467256880024499
Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint fad3fa12c4cda01a6223521c8666f80ff0cc67ef8185a2d6e383ba814fecdcc1 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved -18.7%, which is 4.2 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
99.34
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.355832693810513
t0_value
122.2
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-18.707037643207855
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-08-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.179983019309688
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-22.86
change_pct_from_t0
-18.707037643207855
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.4753860378832995
change_in_volatility_units
-4.179983019309688
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
value
99.34
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.355832693810513
t0_value
122.2
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-18.707037643207855
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-08-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.179983019309688
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-22.86
change_pct_from_t0
-18.707037643207855
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.4753860378832995
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-4.179983019309688
Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3c93fc5aedb651c26598bd6d9310189a42a1c8df629f57a43bf0be16cf35bb23 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 5682d55cccd2b29a396302436312a88aeeb0ee29362398f48b45370bc339e780 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 9f428e998d4f8e3f0b62ce0e589b72e73c5860218140f2727aa93741661c7d36 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 56fb16ffc2601451cfda44b453655b8c4394e0f659ccd04a0f7a8a13e347bf80 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
event_slug
de-tankrabatt-2022
event_type
TAX_CHANGE
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 98f34b162486945bf201f66ee3c233374109d50156f5d4ec98817b088ac4af77 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Lithuania: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.

Europe Brent spot FOB

reported crude oil imports, all origins

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Not available: licence-blocked

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

EU refined-product benchmark

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

wholesale / rack price

Is Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022 really the reason?

What the pump price did around this date

Actual vs crude-only: Lithuania, diesel (automotive gas oil)

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

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