Fuel Origin

Events / Import ban

EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)

Dates
2023-02-05 → no end date recorded
Dated to
the day
Status
Ongoing
Scope
European Union

What the sources said

Second phase of the sixth sanctions package of 3 June 2022 (Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 amending Regulation (EU) No 833/2014): an eight-month wind-down for refined petroleum products against six months for seaborne crude. Eurostat, 19 June 2023: "The ban on imports of seaborne crude oil entered into force on 5 December 2022, while the ban on petroleum products took effect on 5 February 2023." Recorded as a separate marker because each event on this timeline has a single start date and the two phases have different in-force dates. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official
Retrieved 2026-09-25 14:07 UTCRevision 2
Source documents (2)
CountryCountryGermanyFranceNetherlandsPolandFinlandEstoniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSweden
FuelFuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Poland, Diesel (automotive gas oil). 16 series can be drawn; 4 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

185 published readings, 23 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 52 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+9088.2974.522023-01-06: 76.41 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302023-01-20: 86.96 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142023-01-27: 85.36 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72023-02-02: 80.57 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2023-02-03, 78.85 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T02023-02-06: 80.48 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12023-02-08: 84.17 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32023-02-10: 85.46 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72023-02-17: 81.97 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 85.86 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-04-06: 86.56 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-05-05: 75.85 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-0676.41-2.440-3.09%-0.68
−142023-01-2086.96+8.110+10.29%+2.27
−72023-01-2785.36+6.510+8.26%+1.82
−32023-02-0280.57+1.720+2.18%+0.48
−12023-02-03same print as T078.850.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-03same print as T078.850.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-0680.48+1.630+2.07%+0.46
+32023-02-0884.17+5.320+6.75%+1.49
+72023-02-1085.46+6.610+8.38%+1.85
+142023-02-1781.97+3.120+3.96%+0.87
+302023-03-0685.86+7.010+8.89%+1.96
+602023-04-0686.56+7.710+9.78%+2.16
+902023-05-0575.85-3.000-3.80%-0.84

One volatility unit for this series is 4.53%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (757 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+903,070,4251,168,0702023-01-01: 2,886,326 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7same print as T0 — 2023-02-01, 1,352,169 tonnes, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +142023-03-01: 2,235,537 tonnes, used for offsets +302023-04-01: 2,139,307 tonnes, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 1,831,559 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-012,886,326+1,534,157+113.46%+5.05
−142023-01-012,886,326+1,534,157+113.46%+5.05
−72023-01-012,886,326+1,534,157+113.46%+5.05
−32023-02-01same print as T01,352,1690.0000.00%0.00
−12023-02-01same print as T01,352,1690.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-01same print as T01,352,1690.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-01same print as T01,352,1690.0000.00%0.00
+32023-02-01same print as T01,352,1690.0000.00%0.00
+72023-02-01same print as T01,352,1690.0000.00%0.00
+142023-02-01same print as T01,352,1690.0000.00%0.00
+302023-03-012,235,537+883,368+65.33%+2.91
+602023-04-012,139,307+787,138+58.21%+2.59
+902023-05-011,831,559+479,390+35.45%+1.58

One volatility unit for this series is 22.47%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0760.9432023-01-02: 0.9556 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 0.9641 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 0.9881 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0.9947 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 0.9848 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 1.005 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 1.023 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 1.027 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 1.063 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.9556-0.039-3.94%-0.09
−142023-01-160.9641-0.031-3.08%-0.07
−72023-01-230.9881-0.007-0.66%-0.02
−32023-01-30same print as T00.99470.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T00.99470.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T00.99470.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-060.9848-0.010-0.99%-0.02
+32023-02-060.9848-0.010-0.99%-0.02
+72023-02-060.9848-0.010-0.99%-0.02
+142023-02-131.005+0.010+1.04%+0.02
+302023-03-061.023+0.028+2.85%+0.07
+602023-04-031.027+0.032+3.23%+0.07
+902023-05-011.063+0.069+6.91%+0.16

One volatility unit for this series is 43.15%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901.1081.0442023-01-06: 1.050 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −302023-01-20: 1.083 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −142023-01-27: 1.087 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −72023-02-02: 1.099 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2023-02-03, 1.094 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −1, T02023-02-06: 1.078 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +12023-02-08: 1.074 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +32023-02-10: 1.069 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +72023-02-17: 1.063 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +142023-03-07: 1.067 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +302023-04-06: 1.092 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +602023-05-05: 1.101 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-061.050-0.044-4.00%-7.81
−142023-01-201.083-0.011-1.01%-1.98
−72023-01-271.087-0.007-0.66%-1.29
−32023-02-021.099+0.005+0.47%+0.91
−12023-02-03same print as T01.0940.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-03same print as T01.0940.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-061.078-0.016-1.47%-2.88
+32023-02-081.074-0.020-1.85%-3.61
+72023-02-101.069-0.025-2.26%-4.41
+142023-02-171.063-0.031-2.85%-5.57
+302023-03-071.067-0.027-2.49%-4.86
+602023-04-061.092-0.002-0.20%-0.39
+902023-05-051.101+0.008+0.70%+1.38

One volatility unit for this series is 0.51%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (772 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30T0+30+60+9055.510.002023-01-01: 0 to 43.78 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-02-01: 0 to 49.57 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-03-01: 0 to 33.15 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-04-01: 0 to 46.98 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-05-01: 0 to 31.41 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-010–43.78not publishednot publishednot published
−142023-01-010–43.78not publishednot publishednot published
−72023-01-010–43.78not publishednot publishednot published
−32023-02-010–49.57not publishednot publishednot published
−12023-02-010–49.57not publishednot publishednot published
T02023-02-010–49.57not publishednot publishednot published
+12023-02-010–49.57not publishednot publishednot published
+32023-02-010–49.57not publishednot publishednot published
+72023-02-010–49.57not publishednot publishednot published
+142023-02-010–49.57not publishednot publishednot published
+302023-03-010–33.15not publishednot publishednot published
+602023-04-010–46.98not publishednot publishednot published
+902023-05-010–31.41not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30T0+30+60+908.6910.0002023-01-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −72023-02-01: 0 to 3.846 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-03-01: 3.511 to 7.759 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-04-01: 0 to 2.992 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-05-01: 0 to 4.190 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-010not publishednot publishednot published
−142023-01-010not publishednot publishednot published
−72023-01-010not publishednot publishednot published
−32023-02-010–3.846not publishednot publishednot published
−12023-02-010–3.846not publishednot publishednot published
T02023-02-010–3.846not publishednot publishednot published
+12023-02-010–3.846not publishednot publishednot published
+32023-02-010–3.846not publishednot publishednot published
+72023-02-010–3.846not publishednot publishednot published
+142023-02-010–3.846not publishednot publishednot published
+302023-03-013.511–7.759not publishednot publishednot published
+602023-04-010–2.992not publishednot publishednot published
+902023-05-010–4.190not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+90103.796.32023-01-01: 97.00 days of cover, used for offsets −30, −14, −7same print as T0 — 2023-02-01, 97.00 days of cover, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +142023-03-01: 101.0 days of cover, used for offsets +302023-04-01: 103.0 days of cover, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 103.0 days of cover, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-0197.000.0000.00%0.00
−142023-01-0197.000.0000.00%0.00
−72023-01-0197.000.0000.00%0.00
−32023-02-01same print as T097.000.0000.00%0.00
−12023-02-01same print as T097.000.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-01same print as T097.000.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-01same print as T097.000.0000.00%0.00
+32023-02-01same print as T097.000.0000.00%0.00
+72023-02-01same print as T097.000.0000.00%0.00
+142023-02-01same print as T097.000.0000.00%0.00
+302023-03-01101.0+4.000+4.12%+2.45
+602023-04-01103.0+6.000+6.19%+3.68
+902023-05-01103.0+6.000+6.19%+3.68

One volatility unit for this series is 1.68%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+900.5050.4172023-01-02: 0.4598 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 0.4913 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 0.4969 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0.4720 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 0.4881 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 0.4951 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 0.4922 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 0.4959 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 0.4258 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.4598-0.012-2.58%-0.32
−142023-01-160.4913+0.019+4.09%+0.51
−72023-01-230.4969+0.025+5.28%+0.65
−32023-01-30same print as T00.47200.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T00.47200.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T00.47200.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-060.4881+0.016+3.41%+0.42
+32023-02-060.4881+0.016+3.41%+0.42
+72023-02-060.4881+0.016+3.41%+0.42
+142023-02-130.4951+0.023+4.89%+0.61
+302023-03-060.4922+0.020+4.28%+0.53
+602023-04-030.4959+0.024+5.07%+0.63
+902023-05-010.4258-0.046-9.79%-1.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.07%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+9011,686,57110,995,8122023-01-01: 11,619,723 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7same print as T0 — 2023-02-01, 11,062,660 tonnes, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +142023-03-01: 11,398,783 tonnes, used for offsets +302023-04-01: 11,581,454 tonnes, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 11,246,787 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-0111,619,723+557,063+5.04%+1.57
−142023-01-0111,619,723+557,063+5.04%+1.57
−72023-01-0111,619,723+557,063+5.04%+1.57
−32023-02-01same print as T011,062,6600.0000.00%0.00
−12023-02-01same print as T011,062,6600.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-01same print as T011,062,6600.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-01same print as T011,062,6600.0000.00%0.00
+32023-02-01same print as T011,062,6600.0000.00%0.00
+72023-02-01same print as T011,062,6600.0000.00%0.00
+142023-02-01same print as T011,062,6600.0000.00%0.00
+302023-03-0111,398,783+336,123+3.04%+0.95
+602023-04-0111,581,454+518,794+4.69%+1.47
+902023-05-0111,246,787+184,127+1.66%+0.52

One volatility unit for this series is 3.20%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+900.087-0.2932023-01-02: 0.0502 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 0.0300 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 0.0023 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 0.0073 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: -0.0588 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: -0.1196 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: -0.1813 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: -0.2561 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.0502+0.050not publishednot published
−142023-01-160.0300+0.030not publishednot published
−72023-01-230.0023+0.002not publishednot published
−32023-01-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12023-01-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02023-01-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12023-02-060.0073+0.007not publishednot published
+32023-02-060.0073+0.007not publishednot published
+72023-02-060.0073+0.007not publishednot published
+142023-02-13-0.0588-0.059not publishednot published
+302023-03-06-0.1196-0.120not publishednot published
+602023-04-03-0.1813-0.181not publishednot published
+902023-05-01-0.2561-0.256not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901.6681.3762023-01-02: 1.640 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 1.624 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 1.618 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 1.624 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 1.620 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 1.558 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 1.512 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 1.443 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 1.405 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-021.640+0.016+0.99%+0.35
−142023-01-161.624+0.001+0.04%+0.01
−72023-01-231.618-0.005-0.33%-0.12
−32023-01-30same print as T01.6240.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T01.6240.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T01.6240.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-061.620-0.004-0.26%-0.09
+32023-02-061.620-0.004-0.26%-0.09
+72023-02-061.620-0.004-0.26%-0.09
+142023-02-131.558-0.066-4.07%-1.44
+302023-03-061.512-0.112-6.90%-2.44
+602023-04-031.443-0.181-11.12%-3.93
+902023-05-011.405-0.219-13.50%-4.77

One volatility unit for this series is 2.83%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0300.7842023-01-02: 1.006 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 0.9941 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 0.9904 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0.9947 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 0.9921 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 0.9463 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 0.9035 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 0.8456 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 0.8073 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-021.006+0.011+1.11%+0.29
−142023-01-160.9941-0.001-0.06%-0.02
−72023-01-230.9904-0.004-0.43%-0.11
−32023-01-30same print as T00.99470.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T00.99470.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T00.99470.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-060.9921-0.003-0.26%-0.07
+32023-02-060.9921-0.003-0.26%-0.07
+72023-02-060.9921-0.003-0.26%-0.07
+142023-02-130.9463-0.048-4.87%-1.26
+302023-03-060.9035-0.091-9.17%-2.37
+602023-04-030.8456-0.149-14.99%-3.87
+902023-05-010.8073-0.187-18.84%-4.86

One volatility unit for this series is 3.88%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+900.6390.5932023-01-02: 0.6341 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 0.6304 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 0.6280 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0.6291 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 0.6274 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 0.6115 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 0.6082 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 0.5977 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 0.5972 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.6341+0.005+0.80%+0.17
−142023-01-160.6304+0.001+0.21%+0.04
−72023-01-230.6280-0.001-0.17%-0.04
−32023-01-30same print as T00.62910.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T00.62910.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T00.62910.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-060.6274-0.002-0.26%-0.06
+32023-02-060.6274-0.002-0.26%-0.06
+72023-02-060.6274-0.002-0.26%-0.06
+142023-02-130.6115-0.018-2.80%-0.60
+302023-03-060.6082-0.021-3.32%-0.72
+602023-04-030.5977-0.031-4.99%-1.08
+902023-05-010.5972-0.032-5.06%-1.09

One volatility unit for this series is 4.63%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+9064.8217.192023-01-06: 52.91 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302023-01-20: 60.21 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142023-01-27: 51.77 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72023-02-02: 42.91 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2023-02-03, 39.25 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T02023-02-06: 37.12 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12023-02-08: 38.01 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32023-02-10: 35.25 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72023-02-17: 32.10 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 36.23 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-04-06: 26.92 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-05-05: 21.80 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-0652.91+13.654+34.78%+3.54
−142023-01-2060.21+20.954+53.38%+5.43
−72023-01-2751.77+12.516+31.88%+3.24
−32023-02-0242.91+3.656+9.31%+0.95
−12023-02-03same print as T039.250.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-03same print as T039.250.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-0637.12-2.134-5.44%-0.55
+32023-02-0838.01-1.246-3.17%-0.32
+72023-02-1035.25-4.006-10.21%-1.04
+142023-02-1732.10-7.152-18.22%-1.85
+302023-03-0636.23-3.020-7.69%-0.78
+602023-04-0626.92-12.330-31.41%-3.19
+902023-05-0521.80-17.454-44.46%-4.52

One volatility unit for this series is 9.83%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (735 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+9035.3121.572023-01-06: 23.63 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302023-01-20: 27.78 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142023-01-27: 27.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72023-02-02: 26.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2023-02-03, 24.34 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T02023-02-06: 25.32 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12023-02-08: 25.07 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32023-02-10: 25.04 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72023-02-17: 22.90 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 25.19 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-04-06: 33.98 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-05-05: 27.39 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-0623.63-0.710-2.92%-0.02
−142023-01-2027.78+3.440+14.13%+0.08
−72023-01-2727.70+3.360+13.80%+0.08
−32023-02-0226.70+2.354+9.67%+0.05
−12023-02-03same print as T024.340.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-03same print as T024.340.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-0625.32+0.974+4.00%+0.02
+32023-02-0825.07+0.728+2.99%+0.02
+72023-02-1025.04+0.698+2.87%+0.02
+142023-02-1722.90-1.440-5.92%-0.03
+302023-03-0625.19+0.844+3.47%+0.02
+602023-04-0633.98+9.636+39.58%+0.22
+902023-05-0527.39+3.042+12.50%+0.07

One volatility unit for this series is 182.66%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (735 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+9085.086.882023-01-06: 57.61 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302023-01-20: 77.51 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142023-01-27: 73.74 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72023-02-02: 35.06 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2023-02-03, 29.38 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T02023-02-06: 32.50 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12023-02-08: 37.04 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32023-02-10: 31.97 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72023-02-17: 24.75 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 37.16 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-04-06: 19.15 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-05-05: 14.45 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-0657.61+28.228+96.07%+0.54
−142023-01-2077.51+48.128+163.79%+0.93
−72023-01-2773.74+44.352+150.94%+0.85
−32023-02-0235.06+5.672+19.30%+0.11
−12023-02-03same print as T029.380.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-03same print as T029.380.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-0632.50+3.116+10.60%+0.06
+32023-02-0837.04+7.658+26.06%+0.15
+72023-02-1031.97+2.588+8.81%+0.05
+142023-02-1724.75-4.632-15.76%-0.09
+302023-03-0637.16+7.774+26.46%+0.15
+602023-04-0619.15-10.230-34.81%-0.20
+902023-05-0514.45-14.934-50.82%-0.29

One volatility unit for this series is 176.64%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (735 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Unknown
Period 2023-01Updated 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCConfidenceUnknownMethodologyDownload CSV

T0 is 2023-02-05. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023) really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), each with its status and one published figure.
DimensionStatusPublished figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only
0–33.15 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2023-03) · no midpoint
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only
3.511–7.759 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2023-03) · no midpoint
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.Observed
101.0 days of cover at +30 d (published 2023-03-01)+4.12% from the level at T0 = +2.45 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.Observed
85.86 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2023-03-06)+8.89% from the level at T0 = +1.96 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.UnavailableEU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.UnavailableNo published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.UnavailableTanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.Observed
11,398,783 tonnes at +30 d (published 2023-03-01)+3.04% from the level at T0 = +0.95 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.UnavailableWholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.Observed
0.9035 € per litre at +30 d (published 2023-03-06)-9.17% from the level at T0 = -2.37 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.Observed
1.512 € per litre at +30 d (published 2023-03-06)-6.90% from the level at T0 = -2.44 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2023-01-29 to 2023-03-07 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Poland, diesel (automotive gas oil)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else.

2023-02-272023-05-01-20-1001020c/L since the anchor week
  • Actual pre-tax change(official prices)
  • What crude alone would have done(calculated, with range)
  • Shaded: not explained by crude(not attributed to any cause)

Changes are measured from the bulletin week of 2023-01-30. Crude response taken from the stored pass-through estimate over the most recent three-year window (2023-09-25 to 2026-09-14). The light band is a conservative range, not a 90% interval. The shaded area is not explained by crude: refining margins, freight, retail margins and model error are all inside it, and none is named as its cause.

  • Over the 4 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Poland's pre-tax diesel price by +1.5 c/L (range -1.3–+4.4); it actually moved -7.7 c/L, leaving -9.2 c/L not explained by crude.
  • Over the 13 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Poland's pre-tax diesel price by +6.9 c/L (range -5.5–+19.2); it actually moved -18.7 c/L, leaving -25.6 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, narrowed by 27.3 $/bbl.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

  1. In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Poland's pre-tax petrol price moved -0.1%, which is 0.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.79223
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -2.397576661131605
    t0_value
    0.79337
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -0.14369083781842393
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.040686610938086676
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.0011400000000000299
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.14369083781842393
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.531649220847617
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.040686610938086676
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.79223
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -2.397576661131605
    t0_value
    0.79337
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -0.14369083781842393
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.040686610938086676
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.0011400000000000299
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.14369083781842393
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.531649220847617
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.040686610938086676

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint e5bad11704d9524c327671e5487ded13d348a4a508132f54a7a6e677cc11d87f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  2. In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Poland's pre-tax petrol price moved +0.7%, which is 0.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.7988
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -2.2908440124237384
    t0_value
    0.79337
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.6844221485561509
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.19379675209982647
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.005429999999999935
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.6844221485561509
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.531649220847617
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.19379675209982647
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.7988
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -2.2908440124237384
    t0_value
    0.79337
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.6844221485561509
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.19379675209982647
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.005429999999999935
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.6844221485561509
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.531649220847617
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.19379675209982647

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint a1582bdd391b77ab8b8aa778764717a7fe68323f32d024dcf3db36705405aa83 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  3. In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Poland's pre-tax petrol price moved +2.3%, which is 0.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.81126
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -2.0884256253765496
    t0_value
    0.79337
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.254937796992571
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.6384942716511841
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.01788999999999996
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.254937796992571
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.531649220847617
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.6384942716511841
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.81126
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -2.0884256253765496
    t0_value
    0.79337
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.254937796992571
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.6384942716511841
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.01788999999999996
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.254937796992571
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.531649220847617
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.6384942716511841

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint dad1ee77a957ac538610660a6e3b576829487961942b08726b08cb5b4d15206d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  4. In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Poland's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -0.2%, which is 0.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.4176900000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    1.9874163967157052
    t0_value
    1.42027
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -0.18165560069562864
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.07591321966435446
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.0025799999999998047
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.18165560069562864
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.3929376398314743
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.07591321966435446
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.4176900000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    1.9874163967157052
    t0_value
    1.42027
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -0.18165560069562864
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.07591321966435446
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.0025799999999998047
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.18165560069562864
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.3929376398314743
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.07591321966435446

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint c96c7d437401d6c64b8d7f2e6f45bd42b574fb14bc2331cbb33e9a0ad73fade8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  5. In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Poland's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +0.5%, which is 0.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.42707
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    3.098012095469517
    t0_value
    1.42027
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.47878220338387345
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.20008135415413178
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.006800000000000139
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.47878220338387345
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.3929376398314743
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.20008135415413178
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.42707
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    3.098012095469517
    t0_value
    1.42027
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.47878220338387345
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.20008135415413178
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.006800000000000139
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.47878220338387345
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.3929376398314743
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.20008135415413178

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 118d972ba17f33fe8bd303a642e83122da497320dd667efbe7d3fd8da5d00c21 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  6. In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Poland's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +2.4%, which is 1.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.45476
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    6.3765190142854244
    t0_value
    1.42027
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.4284114992219883
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.0148243977611604
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.03449000000000013
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.4284114992219883
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.3929376398314743
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.0148243977611604
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.45476
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    6.3765190142854244
    t0_value
    1.42027
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.4284114992219883
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.0148243977611604
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.03449000000000013
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.4284114992219883
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.3929376398314743
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.0148243977611604

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3748ac85e871da540ec32e971d05a0e7e40daaaeb4af26fb8b058b8517f70818 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  7. In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Poland's pre-tax diesel price moved -0.3%, which is 0.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.99214
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -2.7786961757587485
    t0_value
    0.9947100000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -0.25836676016126026
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.06666313763017595
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.0025700000000000722
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.25836676016126026
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.8757065650673352
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.06666313763017595
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.99214
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -2.7786961757587485
    t0_value
    0.9947100000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -0.25836676016126026
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.06666313763017595
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.0025700000000000722
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.25836676016126026
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.8757065650673352
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.06666313763017595

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint c548be646bb2a6ef2618a86f07eaf1e4131df8ff19db9e93f40d13b4136ec732 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  8. In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Poland's pre-tax diesel price moved -9.2%, which is 2.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.90346
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -3.974400713726977
    t0_value
    0.9947100000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -9.173527962923872
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.3669304703320577
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.09125000000000005
    change_pct_from_t0
    -9.173527962923872
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.8757065650673352
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.3669304703320577
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.90346
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -3.974400713726977
    t0_value
    0.9947100000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -9.173527962923872
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.3669304703320577
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.09125000000000005
    change_pct_from_t0
    -9.173527962923872
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.8757065650673352
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.3669304703320577

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 4e4072ad832e6954e6eedac89d5f37099417a0fc8b0ada00894585c681f9f4cb · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  9. In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Poland's pre-tax diesel price moved -18.8%, which is 4.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.8073400000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -5.270421464623527
    t0_value
    0.9947100000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -18.836645856581317
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.860183695628685
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.18737000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    -18.836645856581317
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.8757065650673352
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.860183695628685
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.8073400000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -5.270421464623527
    t0_value
    0.9947100000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -18.836645856581317
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.860183695628685
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.18737000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    -18.836645856581317
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.8757065650673352
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.860183695628685

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 1aec785b741b3d459f9ccf3eac520ebed99dbda1435b986dd6faaa29cf206c95 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  10. In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Poland's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -0.3%, which is 0.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.6195599999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -1.663310301161379
    t0_value
    1.62377
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -0.2592731729247398
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.09160589938152928
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.004210000000000047
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.2592731729247398
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.8303108716273098
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.09160589938152928
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.6195599999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -1.663310301161379
    t0_value
    1.62377
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -0.2592731729247398
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.09160589938152928
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.004210000000000047
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.2592731729247398
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.8303108716273098
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.09160589938152928

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 09bf1262493f3dc341fd2ae446198c175c6d8eee8cb41b7eaa5bffb1e691963b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  11. In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Poland's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -6.9%, which is 2.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.5116500000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -7.3563158743240695
    t0_value
    1.62377
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -6.904918800076352
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.4396326457617405
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.11211999999999978
    change_pct_from_t0
    -6.904918800076352
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.8303108716273098
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.4396326457617405
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.5116500000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -7.3563158743240695
    t0_value
    1.62377
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -6.904918800076352
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.4396326457617405
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.11211999999999978
    change_pct_from_t0
    -6.904918800076352
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.8303108716273098
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.4396326457617405

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 479fd4e4afd8b9b56506049780eef2d14d0b6abd797259ccbfddea585d51c50d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  12. In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Poland's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -13.5%, which is 4.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.40456
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -13.006060724940275
    t0_value
    1.62377
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -13.500064664330536
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.7698169129275065
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.2192099999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    -13.500064664330536
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.8303108716273098
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.7698169129275065
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.40456
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -13.006060724940275
    t0_value
    1.62377
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -13.500064664330536
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.7698169129275065
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.2192099999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    -13.500064664330536
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.8303108716273098
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.7698169129275065

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 872520b025c1629eb4cbab21178178d2a9ac7a4cc84b478efc08efb94868a8c9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  13. Over the 4 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Poland's pre-tax petrol price by +2.4 c/L (range +0.9–+3.8); it actually moved +0.5 c/L, leaving -1.8 c/L not explained by crude.

    about PolandCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2023-02-27
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.01849455971609433
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.005059999999999953
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.023554559716094284
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.06928868336620317
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -3.1020000000000003
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.008760824643922227
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.038348294788265916
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.6569381415496
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2023-02-27
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.01849455971609433
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.005059999999999953
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.023554559716094284
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.06928868336620317
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -3.1020000000000003
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.008760824643922227
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.038348294788265916
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.6569381415496

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 2e621014e276294b06229a35061d5de6d797bd624e0fec2db2a1eef23f9609fd · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  14. Over the 13 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Poland's pre-tax petrol price by +10.7 c/L (range +3.1–+18.3); it actually moved +1.8 c/L, leaving -8.9 c/L not explained by crude.

    about PolandCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2023-04-28
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.08904176403372678
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.01788999999999996
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.10693176403372674
    proxy_volatility_units
    0.11373887030970548
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    5.091999999999999
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.0313492634590845
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.18251426460837075
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.6569381415496
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2023-04-28
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.08904176403372678
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.01788999999999996
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.10693176403372674
    proxy_volatility_units
    0.11373887030970548
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    5.091999999999999
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.0313492634590845
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.18251426460837075
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.6569381415496

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 9ca72064250671bc32a7b225f1fb5610e9001513f25335c8a67a01d6f1c071be · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  15. Over the 4 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Poland's pre-tax diesel price by +1.5 c/L (range -1.3–+4.4); it actually moved -7.7 c/L, leaving -9.2 c/L not explained by crude.

    about PolandCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2023-02-27
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.09195497572549098
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.07691000000000014
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.015044975725490834
    proxy_volatility_units
    -1.9939207000691863
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -8.939999999999998
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.013496935317997876
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.04358688676898018
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.833812917722621
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2023-02-27
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.09195497572549098
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.07691000000000014
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.015044975725490834
    proxy_volatility_units
    -1.9939207000691863
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -8.939999999999998
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.013496935317997876
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.04358688676898018
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.833812917722621

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 9fe77f30229eea7f000fe85e394c107ebf1d63b2fb53edef1a1bb87d7003f795 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  16. Over the 13 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Poland's pre-tax diesel price by +6.9 c/L (range -5.5–+19.2); it actually moved -18.7 c/L, leaving -25.6 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, narrowed by 27.3 $/bbl.

    about PolandCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2023-04-28
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.2561264516067857
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.18737000000000004
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.0687564516067857
    proxy_volatility_units
    -6.086587908824174
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -27.290000000000003
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.05493876993962271
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.1924516731531919
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.833812917722621
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2023-04-28
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.2561264516067857
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.18737000000000004
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.0687564516067857
    proxy_volatility_units
    -6.086587908824174
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -27.290000000000003
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.05493876993962271
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.1924516731531919
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.833812917722621

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 6095cb9b2ba09474cfd4b3fc0765266d361bbdb3b72dddcdf2bff576818a35d9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  17. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was significant (0%–50%) for Poland in 2023-02. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about PolandCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    significant
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2023-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Poland
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    value_max_pct
    49.5662006746198
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    significant
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2023-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Poland
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    value_max_pct
    49.5662006746198
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint 3504a9202c6cce1ba3156c400c51a691c4ab3c975ab888061f0cbd45373ca78c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  18. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was limited (0%–4%) for Poland in 2023-02. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about PolandCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2023-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Poland
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    value_max_pct
    3.84614936590605
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2023-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Poland
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    value_max_pct
    3.84614936590605
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint 972a096247a15e5526da2ea18cbe32e1d128d1d92d2a8ce675033c5caacdc72c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  19. Available evidence does show a physical supply reduction: Poland's reported crude imports in 2023-02 were -40.1% against the mean of the previous 12 months.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2023-02
    country
    Poland
    change_pct
    -40.071329251523
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    1352169
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    2256297.3333333335
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2023-02
    country
    Poland
    change_pct
    -40.071329251523
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    1352169
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    2256297.3333333335
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.supply.reduction v1.1 · Fingerprint 2b4c43d6840d780718f170daad2d8a9b8ee2241e6622a629090d052d183ad742 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  20. In 2023-02, Poland's oil stocks stood 3.6% above their trailing 12-month mean — inside the 5% either side that this site reads as in line with it, with 97.0 days of cover (as published).

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2023-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_PL
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    days_of_cover
    97
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -4.794116004314389
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    11062660
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    4
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    10676074.333333334
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    3.6210469747260094
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    3.6210469747260094
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    3.6
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2023-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_PL
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    days_of_cover
    97
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -4.794116004314389
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    11062660
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    10676074.333333334
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    3.6210469747260094
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Template event.inventory_level.in_line v1.1 · Fingerprint 482c6c274ba762968d24ea9a44254d4165e73c340ac691d9fefd3662d7e334ba · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  21. Summary of what can be checked here

    Only part of the chain can be checked for Poland around EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023): 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was significant (0–50%) over the period covered. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.

    about PolandUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    country
    Poland
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    dependence_band
    significant
    dependence_range
    0–50%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.reduction
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    country
    Poland
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    dependence_band
    significant
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    0–50%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.reduction
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint 0053144b9e4ff70362aa4845e017154f28ab8cbfe58c05361045e7107f28c911 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  22. In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), the Brent crude benchmark moved +8.4%, which is 1.8 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    85.46
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.08812991325524933
    t0_value
    78.85
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    8.383005707038683
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-02-10
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.8495435613044966
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.609999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.383005707038683
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.532472704306617
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.8495435613044966
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    85.46
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.08812991325524933
    t0_value
    78.85
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    8.383005707038683
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-02-10
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.8495435613044966
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.609999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.383005707038683
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.532472704306617
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.8495435613044966

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 38adc5dea4321bbd49653a24f7c0174373d8aa5326085a6d6dbe425d5975e73b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  23. In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), the Brent crude benchmark moved +8.9%, which is 2.0 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    85.86
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.1507166248435324
    t0_value
    78.85
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    8.890298034242239
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.9614675287056775
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    7.010000000000005
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.890298034242239
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.532472704306617
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.9614675287056775
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    85.86
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.1507166248435324
    t0_value
    78.85
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    8.890298034242239
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.9614675287056775
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    7.010000000000005
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.890298034242239
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.532472704306617
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.9614675287056775

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 0da9031a475f48ba9492ce0f26d02ef4b075756fb5a3ed508e2b5f1ea86c489b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  24. In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), the Brent crude benchmark moved -3.8%, which is 0.8 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    75.85
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.4155158326532304
    t0_value
    78.85
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -3.804692454026633
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-05-05
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.8394297555088486
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -3
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.804692454026633
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.532472704306617
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.8394297555088486
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    75.85
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.4155158326532304
    t0_value
    78.85
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -3.804692454026633
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-05-05
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.8394297555088486
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -3
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.804692454026633
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.532472704306617
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.8394297555088486

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 956c15054a5318a99cfc9c833555e8d3f8ac980a1c014dbf655e5357d300335e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  25. Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 298ab38a71e7fa1e827846158174e16f115ed958766d0a18618b16aa877096e8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  26. Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 0a3ee8f8627510915169cd9a2eaa4452fa0806bd90c55f8208323cb6b271bea9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  27. Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint b5b761de3451d820e679168f99a9b0a6cadccd3d87b852d57da6f18bc2de3e6c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  28. Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint e9796ff5d8838330a75be8298f9f4cd8c4fea863574dbd933141d0a1f568d3c6 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

  • It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
  • A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
  • Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
  • Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Poland: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

  • OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
  • VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
  • CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
  • Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
  • Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
  • Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
  • UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.