Events / Import ban

EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)

Dates: 2023-02-05 → no end date recorded
Dated to: the day
Status: Ongoing
Scope: European Union

What the sources said

Second phase of the sixth sanctions package of 3 June 2022 (Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 amending Regulation (EU) No 833/2014): an eight-month wind-down for refined petroleum products against six months for seaborne crude. Eurostat, 19 June 2023: "The ban on imports of seaborne crude oil entered into force on 5 December 2022, while the ban on petroleum products took effect on 5 February 2023." Recorded as a separate marker because each event on this timeline has a single start date and the two phases have different in-force dates. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official

Retrieved 2026-09-25 14:07 UTCRevision 2

Source documents (2)

CountryGermany France Netherlands Poland Finland Estonia Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czechia Denmark Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden

FuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Slovenia, Diesel (automotive gas oil). 16 series can be drawn; 4 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

182 published readings, 26 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 52 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-06	76.41	-2.440	-3.09%	-0.68
−14	2023-01-20	86.96	+8.110	+10.29%	+2.27
−7	2023-01-27	85.36	+6.510	+8.26%	+1.82
−3	2023-02-02	80.57	+1.720	+2.18%	+0.48
−1	2023-02-03same print as T0	78.85	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03same print as T0	78.85	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	80.48	+1.630	+2.07%	+0.46
+3	2023-02-08	84.17	+5.320	+6.75%	+1.49
+7	2023-02-10	85.46	+6.610	+8.38%	+1.85
+14	2023-02-17	81.97	+3.120	+3.96%	+0.87
+30	2023-03-06	85.86	+7.010	+8.89%	+1.96
+60	2023-04-06	86.56	+7.710	+9.78%	+2.16
+90	2023-05-05	75.85	-3.000	-3.80%	-0.84

One volatility unit for this series is 4.53%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (757 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-01	not published	not published
−14	2023-01-01	not published	not published
−7	2023-01-01	not published	not published
−3	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
−1	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
T0	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
+1	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
+3	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
+7	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
+14	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
+30	2023-03-01	not published	not published
+60	2023-04-01	not published	not published
+90	2023-05-01	not published	not published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-02	0.8547	-0.032	-3.64%	-0.13
−14	2023-01-16	0.8597	-0.027	-3.08%	-0.11
−7	2023-01-23	0.8645	-0.023	-2.54%	-0.09
−3	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.8870	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.8870	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.8870	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.9138	+0.027	+3.01%	+0.11
+3	2023-02-06	0.9138	+0.027	+3.01%	+0.11
+7	2023-02-06	0.9138	+0.027	+3.01%	+0.11
+14	2023-02-13	0.9160	+0.029	+3.27%	+0.12
+30	2023-03-06	0.9499	+0.063	+7.09%	+0.25
+60	2023-04-03	0.9335	+0.046	+5.24%	+0.18
+90	2023-05-01	1.052	+0.165	+18.56%	+0.65

One volatility unit for this series is 28.36%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-06	1.050	-0.044	-4.00%	-7.81
−14	2023-01-20	1.083	-0.011	-1.01%	-1.98
−7	2023-01-27	1.087	-0.007	-0.66%	-1.29
−3	2023-02-02	1.099	+0.005	+0.47%	+0.91
−1	2023-02-03same print as T0	1.094	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03same print as T0	1.094	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	1.078	-0.016	-1.47%	-2.88
+3	2023-02-08	1.074	-0.020	-1.85%	-3.61
+7	2023-02-10	1.069	-0.025	-2.26%	-4.41
+14	2023-02-17	1.063	-0.031	-2.85%	-5.57
+30	2023-03-07	1.067	-0.027	-2.49%	-4.86
+60	2023-04-06	1.092	-0.002	-0.20%	-0.39
+90	2023-05-05	1.101	+0.008	+0.70%	+1.38

One volatility unit for this series is 0.51%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (772 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. The line stops at −30, −14, −7, −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +14, +30, +60, +90 where no figure was published within one period of the offset.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
−14	2023-01-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
−7	2023-01-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
−3	2023-02-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
−1	2023-02-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
T0	2023-02-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
+1	2023-02-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
+3	2023-02-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
+7	2023-02-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
+14	2023-02-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
+30	2023-03-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
+60	2023-04-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
+90	2023-05-01	not published	not published	not published	not published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-01	0–32.25	not published	not published	not published
−14	2023-01-01	0–32.25	not published	not published	not published
−7	2023-01-01	0–32.25	not published	not published	not published
−3	2023-02-01	0–24.04	not published	not published	not published
−1	2023-02-01	0–24.04	not published	not published	not published
T0	2023-02-01	0–24.04	not published	not published	not published
+1	2023-02-01	0–24.04	not published	not published	not published
+3	2023-02-01	0–24.04	not published	not published	not published
+7	2023-02-01	0–24.04	not published	not published	not published
+14	2023-02-01	0–24.04	not published	not published	not published
+30	2023-03-01	0–43.53	not published	not published	not published
+60	2023-04-01	0–21.32	not published	not published	not published
+90	2023-05-01	0–23.06	not published	not published	not published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-01	97.00	+1.000	+1.04%	+0.27
−14	2023-01-01	97.00	+1.000	+1.04%	+0.27
−7	2023-01-01	97.00	+1.000	+1.04%	+0.27
−3	2023-02-01same print as T0	96.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-02-01same print as T0	96.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-01same print as T0	96.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-01same print as T0	96.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2023-02-01same print as T0	96.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2023-02-01same print as T0	96.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2023-02-01same print as T0	96.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-03-01	95.00	-1.000	-1.04%	-0.27
+60	2023-04-01	93.00	-3.000	-3.13%	-0.81
+90	2023-05-01	93.00	-3.000	-3.13%	-0.81

One volatility unit for this series is 3.87%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-02	0.4598	-0.012	-2.58%	-0.32
−14	2023-01-16	0.4913	+0.019	+4.09%	+0.51
−7	2023-01-23	0.4969	+0.025	+5.28%	+0.65
−3	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+3	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+7	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+14	2023-02-13	0.4951	+0.023	+4.89%	+0.61
+30	2023-03-06	0.4922	+0.020	+4.28%	+0.53
+60	2023-04-03	0.4959	+0.024	+5.07%	+0.63
+90	2023-05-01	0.4258	-0.046	-9.79%	-1.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.07%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-01	730,000	+35,000	+5.04%	+1.02
−14	2023-01-01	730,000	+35,000	+5.04%	+1.02
−7	2023-01-01	730,000	+35,000	+5.04%	+1.02
−3	2023-02-01same print as T0	695,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-02-01same print as T0	695,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-01same print as T0	695,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-01same print as T0	695,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2023-02-01same print as T0	695,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2023-02-01same print as T0	695,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2023-02-01same print as T0	695,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-03-01	647,000	-48,000	-6.91%	-1.39
+60	2023-04-01	683,000	-12,000	-1.73%	-0.35
+90	2023-05-01	658,000	-37,000	-5.32%	-1.07

One volatility unit for this series is 4.96%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-02	0.0335	+0.034	not published	not published
−14	2023-01-16	0.0407	+0.041	not published	not published
−7	2023-01-23	0.0231	+0.023	not published	not published
−3	2023-01-30same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
−1	2023-01-30same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
T0	2023-01-30same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
+1	2023-02-06	-0.0106	-0.011	not published	not published
+3	2023-02-06	-0.0106	-0.011	not published	not published
+7	2023-02-06	-0.0106	-0.011	not published	not published
+14	2023-02-13	0.0111	+0.011	not published	not published
+30	2023-03-06	-0.1332	-0.133	not published	not published
+60	2023-04-03	-0.1446	-0.145	not published	not published
+90	2023-05-01	-0.3145	-0.314	not published	not published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-02	1.511	-0.001	-0.06%	-0.03
−14	2023-01-16	1.525	+0.014	+0.93%	+0.43
−7	2023-01-23	1.512	+0.001	+0.05%	+0.02
−3	2023-01-30same print as T0	1.511	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30same print as T0	1.511	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30same print as T0	1.511	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	1.529	+0.017	+1.13%	+0.52
+3	2023-02-06	1.529	+0.017	+1.13%	+0.52
+7	2023-02-06	1.529	+0.017	+1.13%	+0.52
+14	2023-02-13	1.558	+0.046	+3.07%	+1.41
+30	2023-03-06	1.516	+0.005	+0.31%	+0.14
+60	2023-04-03	1.502	-0.009	-0.62%	-0.29
+90	2023-05-01	1.439	-0.072	-4.79%	-2.21

One volatility unit for this series is 2.17%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-02	0.8882	+0.001	+0.14%	+0.03
−14	2023-01-16	0.9004	+0.013	+1.51%	+0.37
−7	2023-01-23	0.8876	+0.001	+0.06%	+0.02
−3	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.8870	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.8870	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.8870	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.9031	+0.016	+1.82%	+0.44
+3	2023-02-06	0.9031	+0.016	+1.82%	+0.44
+7	2023-02-06	0.9031	+0.016	+1.82%	+0.44
+14	2023-02-13	0.9271	+0.040	+4.52%	+1.10
+30	2023-03-06	0.8167	-0.070	-7.93%	-1.94
+60	2023-04-03	0.7889	-0.098	-11.06%	-2.70
+90	2023-05-01	0.7372	-0.150	-16.89%	-4.13

One volatility unit for this series is 4.09%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-02	0.6224	-0.002	-0.33%	-0.19
−14	2023-01-16	0.6251	+0.001	+0.10%	+0.05
−7	2023-01-23	0.6246	+0.000	+0.02%	+0.01
−3	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.6245	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.6245	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.6245	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.6255	+0.001	+0.16%	+0.09
+3	2023-02-06	0.6255	+0.001	+0.16%	+0.09
+7	2023-02-06	0.6255	+0.001	+0.16%	+0.09
+14	2023-02-13	0.6307	+0.006	+1.01%	+0.57
+30	2023-03-06	0.6994	+0.075	+12.00%	+6.74
+60	2023-04-03	0.7132	+0.089	+14.20%	+7.97
+90	2023-05-01	0.7018	+0.077	+12.38%	+6.95

One volatility unit for this series is 1.78%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-06	52.91	+13.654	+34.78%	+3.54
−14	2023-01-20	60.21	+20.954	+53.38%	+5.43
−7	2023-01-27	51.77	+12.516	+31.88%	+3.24
−3	2023-02-02	42.91	+3.656	+9.31%	+0.95
−1	2023-02-03same print as T0	39.25	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03same print as T0	39.25	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	37.12	-2.134	-5.44%	-0.55
+3	2023-02-08	38.01	-1.246	-3.17%	-0.32
+7	2023-02-10	35.25	-4.006	-10.21%	-1.04
+14	2023-02-17	32.10	-7.152	-18.22%	-1.85
+30	2023-03-06	36.23	-3.020	-7.69%	-0.78
+60	2023-04-06	26.92	-12.330	-31.41%	-3.19
+90	2023-05-05	21.80	-17.454	-44.46%	-4.52

One volatility unit for this series is 9.83%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (735 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-06	23.63	-0.710	-2.92%	-0.02
−14	2023-01-20	27.78	+3.440	+14.13%	+0.08
−7	2023-01-27	27.70	+3.360	+13.80%	+0.08
−3	2023-02-02	26.70	+2.354	+9.67%	+0.05
−1	2023-02-03same print as T0	24.34	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03same print as T0	24.34	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	25.32	+0.974	+4.00%	+0.02
+3	2023-02-08	25.07	+0.728	+2.99%	+0.02
+7	2023-02-10	25.04	+0.698	+2.87%	+0.02
+14	2023-02-17	22.90	-1.440	-5.92%	-0.03
+30	2023-03-06	25.19	+0.844	+3.47%	+0.02
+60	2023-04-06	33.98	+9.636	+39.58%	+0.22
+90	2023-05-05	27.39	+3.042	+12.50%	+0.07

One volatility unit for this series is 182.66%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (735 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-06	57.61	+28.228	+96.07%	+0.54
−14	2023-01-20	77.51	+48.128	+163.79%	+0.93
−7	2023-01-27	73.74	+44.352	+150.94%	+0.85
−3	2023-02-02	35.06	+5.672	+19.30%	+0.11
−1	2023-02-03same print as T0	29.38	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03same print as T0	29.38	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	32.50	+3.116	+10.60%	+0.06
+3	2023-02-08	37.04	+7.658	+26.06%	+0.15
+7	2023-02-10	31.97	+2.588	+8.81%	+0.05
+14	2023-02-17	24.75	-4.632	-15.76%	-0.09
+30	2023-03-06	37.16	+7.774	+26.46%	+0.15
+60	2023-04-06	19.15	-10.230	-34.81%	-0.20
+90	2023-05-05	14.45	-14.934	-50.82%	-0.29

One volatility unit for this series is 176.64%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (735 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

T0 is 2023-02-05. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023) really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), each with its status and one published figure.
Dimension	Status	Published figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.	Nothing published in the window	not published
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.	Range only	0–43.53 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2023-03) · no midpoint
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.	Observed	95.00 days of cover at +30 d (published 2023-03-01)-1.04% from the level at T0 = -0.27 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.	Observed	85.86 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2023-03-06)+8.89% from the level at T0 = +1.96 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.	Unavailable	EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.	Unavailable	No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.	Unavailable	Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.	Observed	647,000 tonnes at +30 d (published 2023-03-01)-6.91% from the level at T0 = -1.39 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.	Unavailable	Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.	Observed	0.8167 € per litre at +30 d (published 2023-03-06)-7.93% from the level at T0 = -1.94 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.	Observed	1.516 € per litre at +30 d (published 2023-03-06)+0.31% from the level at T0 = +0.14 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2023-01-29 to 2023-03-07 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Slovenia, diesel (automotive gas oil)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/eu-russia-products-embargo-2023/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'eu-russia-products-embargo-2023' and country 'slovenia'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Slovenia's pre-tax petrol price moved +2.9%, which is 0.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about SloveniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.70653
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-1.1485787313938653
t0_value
0.68652
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
2.914700227232997
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.6474897989074526
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.020009999999999972
change_pct_from_t0
2.914700227232997
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
4.501538452267729
change_in_volatility_units
0.6474897989074526
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.70653
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-1.1485787313938653
t0_value
0.68652
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
2.914700227232997
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.6474897989074526
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.020009999999999972
change_pct_from_t0
2.914700227232997
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
4.501538452267729
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.6474897989074526
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint b3427cbc21b9554a6e2206543b0de291ac9aa262d1ddf84c2b1f05a9454d11ab · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Slovenia's pre-tax petrol price moved +5.3%, which is 1.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about SloveniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.7229
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-0.8973388577467799
t0_value
0.68652
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
5.299190118277686
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.1771953465393872
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.03637999999999997
change_pct_from_t0
5.299190118277686
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.501538452267729
change_in_volatility_units
1.1771953465393872
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.7229
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-0.8973388577467799
t0_value
0.68652
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
5.299190118277686
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.1771953465393872
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.03637999999999997
change_pct_from_t0
5.299190118277686
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.501538452267729
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.1771953465393872
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint a6d1a4a9fdb48b7c291f5add705d0ed8fd7105d0252d12157fb89fe701a4ae36 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Slovenia's pre-tax petrol price moved +9.4%, which is 2.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about SloveniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.75077
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-0.4696018217941662
t0_value
0.68652
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
9.358795082444797
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
2.079021468256067
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.06425000000000003
change_pct_from_t0
9.358795082444797
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
4.501538452267729
change_in_volatility_units
2.079021468256067
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.75077
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-0.4696018217941662
t0_value
0.68652
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
9.358795082444797
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
2.079021468256067
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.06425000000000003
change_pct_from_t0
9.358795082444797
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
4.501538452267729
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
2.079021468256067
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint a40b705fdc73cf1f9be3c31ad765f3660711345d92e7913b64626be4c19568c7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Slovenia's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +1.9%, which is 0.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about SloveniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.32505
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-1.147245360894205
t0_value
1.30064
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.8767683601919087
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.9244869530342353
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.024410000000000043
change_pct_from_t0
1.8767683601919087
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.0300647337771665
change_in_volatility_units
0.9244869530342353
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.32505
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-1.147245360894205
t0_value
1.30064
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.8767683601919087
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.9244869530342353
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.024410000000000043
change_pct_from_t0
1.8767683601919087
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.0300647337771665
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.9244869530342353
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint f9ee6fad5b26c7e0c9c5b23c5bdc84e559edde3f4f08b8a394dfdc715045aed1 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Slovenia's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +5.3%, which is 2.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about SloveniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.3694300000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-0.5889491974764832
t0_value
1.30064
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
5.288934678312225
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
2.6053034616642794
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.06879000000000013
change_pct_from_t0
5.288934678312225
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.0300647337771665
change_in_volatility_units
2.6053034616642794
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.3694300000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-0.5889491974764832
t0_value
1.30064
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
5.288934678312225
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
2.6053034616642794
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.06879000000000013
change_pct_from_t0
5.288934678312225
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.0300647337771665
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
2.6053034616642794
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint ef507d4bb204d9863d471c1f5815b2cb86944e4b6d2c693846c68271a73473ef · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Slovenia's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +8.7%, which is 4.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about SloveniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.414
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-0.028262852196454226
t0_value
1.30064
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
8.715709189322173
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
4.29331589495947
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.1133599999999999
change_pct_from_t0
8.715709189322173
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.0300647337771665
change_in_volatility_units
4.29331589495947
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.414
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-0.028262852196454226
t0_value
1.30064
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
8.715709189322173
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
4.29331589495947
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.1133599999999999
change_pct_from_t0
8.715709189322173
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.0300647337771665
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
4.29331589495947
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 0b1356b85ec73c229dc95df39c622ae40f4d3684f8c4d77848bd312784396bc2 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Slovenia's pre-tax diesel price moved +1.8%, which is 0.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about SloveniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.90314
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-1.2330559608688056
t0_value
0.88702
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.8173209172284754
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.44399336300299885
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.016120000000000023
change_pct_from_t0
1.8173209172284754
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
4.093126313728705
change_in_volatility_units
0.44399336300299885
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.90314
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-1.2330559608688056
t0_value
0.88702
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.8173209172284754
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.44399336300299885
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.016120000000000023
change_pct_from_t0
1.8173209172284754
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
4.093126313728705
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.44399336300299885
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 50a9fa41d51c5cdc0a1ab5d7bf339dfa36d14b717e173c3a4afbdc1a603a6d7e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Slovenia's pre-tax diesel price moved -7.9%, which is 1.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about SloveniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.81671
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-2.2532406492061643
t0_value
0.88702
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-7.9265405515095475
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.9365492154305706
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.07030999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
-7.9265405515095475
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.093126313728705
change_in_volatility_units
-1.9365492154305706
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.81671
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-2.2532406492061643
t0_value
0.88702
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-7.9265405515095475
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.9365492154305706
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.07030999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
-7.9265405515095475
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.093126313728705
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-1.9365492154305706
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint e04b95a52c08be43389c3142b9510881fdf17e533918f938a6a3e53ca908a30d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Slovenia's pre-tax diesel price moved -16.9%, which is 4.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about SloveniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.73723
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-3.191390354505866
t0_value
0.88702
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-16.886879664494597
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.125667856341135
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.14978999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
-16.886879664494597
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
4.093126313728705
change_in_volatility_units
-4.125667856341135
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.73723
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-3.191390354505866
t0_value
0.88702
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-16.886879664494597
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.125667856341135
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.14978999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
-16.886879664494597
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
4.093126313728705
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-4.125667856341135
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint e82bddd0a921ba315521d17f3632d23981d539aebd3d2476f5e327842ce79e02 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Slovenia's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +1.1%, which is 0.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about SloveniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.52861
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-1.2347049043851115
t0_value
1.51147
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.1339953819791284
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.5223326695282869
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.017139999999999933
change_pct_from_t0
1.1339953819791284
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.171021358865467
change_in_volatility_units
0.5223326695282869
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.52861
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-1.2347049043851115
t0_value
1.51147
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.1339953819791284
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.5223326695282869
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.017139999999999933
change_pct_from_t0
1.1339953819791284
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.171021358865467
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.5223326695282869
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint dc9c04d1a13856e30c15e8eef2f93a77a6a018e6f22f69483110d27a15a4b610 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Slovenia's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +0.3%, which is 0.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about SloveniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.51609
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-1.3558351346942046
t0_value
1.51147
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
0.3056626992265706
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.1407921197911677
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0046199999999998465
change_pct_from_t0
0.3056626992265706
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.171021358865467
change_in_volatility_units
0.1407921197911677
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.51609
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-1.3558351346942046
t0_value
1.51147
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
0.3056626992265706
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.1407921197911677
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0046199999999998465
change_pct_from_t0
0.3056626992265706
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.171021358865467
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.1407921197911677
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint a192c44637965c872c540ae3d90e6faa677fa923ff8d36389ac8526dff4fe3f3 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Slovenia's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -4.8%, which is 2.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about SloveniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.439
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-2.1016761454392463
t0_value
1.51147
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-4.794670089383185
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.2084859136939974
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.07247000000000003
change_pct_from_t0
-4.794670089383185
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.171021358865467
change_in_volatility_units
-2.2084859136939974
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.439
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
z_score
-2.1016761454392463
t0_value
1.51147
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-4.794670089383185
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.2084859136939974
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.07247000000000003
change_pct_from_t0
-4.794670089383185
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.171021358865467
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-2.2084859136939974
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint b925f51527305e8b4a257e94c8e4935d93fab3e21c8c3c28713b48b682182017 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 4 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Slovenia's pre-tax petrol price by +4.0 c/L (range +1.9–+6.1); it actually moved +3.6 c/L, leaving -0.4 c/L not explained by crude.
about SloveniaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Slovenia
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
4
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.004264517321758178
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
0.035580000000000056
expected_eur_per_litre
0.039844517321758234
proxy_volatility_units
-0.06928868336620317
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-3.1020000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.01896081984049325
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.06072821480302305
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Slovenia
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
4
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.004264517321758178
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.035580000000000056
expected_eur_per_litre
0.039844517321758234
proxy_volatility_units
-0.06928868336620317
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-3.1020000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.01896081984049325
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.06072821480302305
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 94b160b99629671fbea449dd0bc8ab3f48359df457dc71cac27b7d01991e328c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 13 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Slovenia's pre-tax petrol price by +12.2 c/L (range +3.6–+20.8); it actually moved +6.4 c/L, leaving -5.8 c/L not explained by crude.
about SloveniaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Slovenia
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
4
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.05788660054494149
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
0.06425000000000003
expected_eur_per_litre
0.12213660054494152
proxy_volatility_units
0.11373887030970548
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
5.091999999999999
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.03609629866146288
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.2081769024284219
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Slovenia
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
4
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.05788660054494149
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.06425000000000003
expected_eur_per_litre
0.12213660054494152
proxy_volatility_units
0.11373887030970548
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
5.091999999999999
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.03609629866146288
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.2081769024284219
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 39c9dac1fbcfd6f34e2c27cfc2c0e328be051b4b31b4e842026a9023ac0556aa · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 4 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Slovenia's pre-tax diesel price by +5.5 c/L (range +1.3–+9.7); it actually moved -5.0 c/L, leaving -10.5 c/L not explained by crude.
about SloveniaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Slovenia
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SI_DIESEL
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
4
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.10548739616460348
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.05009000000000008
expected_eur_per_litre
0.0553973961646034
proxy_volatility_units
-1.9939207000691863
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-8.939999999999998
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.013394493463315761
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.09740029886589079
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Slovenia
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SI_DIESEL
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
4
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.10548739616460348
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.05009000000000008
expected_eur_per_litre
0.0553973961646034
proxy_volatility_units
-1.9939207000691863
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-8.939999999999998
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.013394493463315761
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.09740029886589079
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint bd8d27e1f4edfc76c92c66d098a5b67aa881c02f7db07acfd1ccd4c891514434 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 13 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Slovenia's pre-tax diesel price by +16.5 c/L (range -0.7–+33.6); it actually moved -15.0 c/L, leaving -31.4 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, narrowed by 27.3 $/bbl.
about SloveniaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Slovenia
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SI_DIESEL
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
4
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.31446243643836613
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.14978999999999998
expected_eur_per_litre
0.16467243643836615
proxy_volatility_units
-6.086587908824174
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-27.290000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.007036419892139906
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.3363812927688718
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Slovenia
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SI_DIESEL
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
4
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.31446243643836613
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.14978999999999998
expected_eur_per_litre
0.16467243643836615
proxy_volatility_units
-6.086587908824174
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-27.290000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.007036419892139906
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.3363812927688718
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 82c27e6a9a8a44ec1e8cf46cb9bb5f0df08e01a001d84888afed0e9201c6758b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude for Slovenia in 2023-02 is UNKNOWN: the source reports zero imports for this period, so there is no volume to take a share of - this is a reported zero, not missing data.
about SloveniaUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Slovenia
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
value_max_pct
null
value_min_pct
null
exposure_status
UNKNOWN
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2023-02-01
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Slovenia
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
value_max_pct
null
value_min_pct
null
exposure_status
UNKNOWN
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2023-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.dependence.unknown v1.1 · Fingerprint 7794732bb56e77daa8a90e449b8e68283371f98ada5c9be0fd96fe0136effacb · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was moderate (0%–24%) for Slovenia in 2023-02. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.
about SloveniaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Slovenia
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
value_max_pct
24.0384615384615
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2023-02-01
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Slovenia
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
value_max_pct
24.0384615384615
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2023-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint 3611bc21836add9e1b22259805b049fbf66214de5e2ce7420bbd8d7237ef2a5b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Whether Slovenia's crude supply was physically reduced in 2023-02 is UNKNOWN: only 12 month(s) of comparison data, fewer than the 6 required.
about SloveniaUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
country
Slovenia
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
partner_role
ORIGIN
value_tonnes
0
baseline_months
12
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
baseline_mean_tonnes
0
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
min_baseline_months
6
baseline_months_used
12
supply_reduction_pct
-10
supply_baseline_months
12
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
country
Slovenia
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
partner_role
ORIGIN
value_tonnes
0
baseline_months
12
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
baseline_mean_tonnes
0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.supply.unknown v1.1 · Fingerprint 3b579d1344cee828172f8fcd4fa36a6f79c27029a4555cc12ab44ef0ab0ab5f3 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In 2023-02, Slovenia's oil stocks stood 3.8% above their trailing 12-month mean — inside the 5% either side that this site reads as in line with it, with 96.0 days of cover (as published).
about SloveniaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_SI
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
days_of_cover
96
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
-4.794520547945205
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
695000
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
observation_gap_days
4
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
669416.6666666666
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
3.821735341715424
trailing_12m_observations
12
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
band_applied_to
the rounded figure printed in the sentence
days_of_cover_basis
as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
trailing_window_months
12
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
3.821735341715424
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
3.8
inventory_material_deviation_pct
5
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Slovenia
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_SI
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
days_of_cover
96
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
-4.794520547945205
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
695000
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
669416.6666666666
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
3.821735341715424
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
trailing_12m_observations
12
Template event.inventory_level.in_line v1.1 · Fingerprint 81ca15fe57a58f1b06f0be1f795a7123910e3318ccc10e668635a136764e978d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Summary of what can be checked here
Only part of the chain can be checked for Slovenia around EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023): 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.
about SloveniaUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
country
Slovenia
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
dependence_band
null
dependence_range
null
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.unknown
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
channels_total
8
channels_available
4
verdict_partial_min_channels
3
verdict_assessable_min_channels
8
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
country
Slovenia
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
SI
country_name
Slovenia
country_slug
slovenia
dependence_band
null
statement_topic
event
dependence_range
null
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.unknown
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint cc7281497ee8b003a6af73e6e4f4424e57fc77af8d81484e18a1dce11f357b4f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), the Brent crude benchmark moved +8.4%, which is 1.8 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.46
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.08812991325524933
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.383005707038683
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-02-10
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
6.609999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
8.383005707038683
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
change_in_volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.46
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.08812991325524933
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.383005707038683
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-02-10
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
6.609999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
8.383005707038683
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 38adc5dea4321bbd49653a24f7c0174373d8aa5326085a6d6dbe425d5975e73b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), the Brent crude benchmark moved +8.9%, which is 2.0 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.86
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.1507166248435324
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.890298034242239
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
7.010000000000005
change_pct_from_t0
8.890298034242239
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
change_in_volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.86
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.1507166248435324
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.890298034242239
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
7.010000000000005
change_pct_from_t0
8.890298034242239
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 0da9031a475f48ba9492ce0f26d02ef4b075756fb5a3ed508e2b5f1ea86c489b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), the Brent crude benchmark moved -3.8%, which is 0.8 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
75.85
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.4155158326532304
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-3.804692454026633
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-05-05
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-3
change_pct_from_t0
-3.804692454026633
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
75.85
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.4155158326532304
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-3.804692454026633
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-05-05
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-3
change_pct_from_t0
-3.804692454026633
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 956c15054a5318a99cfc9c833555e8d3f8ac980a1c014dbf655e5357d300335e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 298ab38a71e7fa1e827846158174e16f115ed958766d0a18618b16aa877096e8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 0a3ee8f8627510915169cd9a2eaa4452fa0806bd90c55f8208323cb6b271bea9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint b5b761de3451d820e679168f99a9b0a6cadccd3d87b852d57da6f18bc2de3e6c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint e9796ff5d8838330a75be8298f9f4cd8c4fea863574dbd933141d0a1f568d3c6 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Slovenia: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.

Europe Brent spot FOB

reported crude oil imports, all origins

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Not available: licence-blocked

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

EU refined-product benchmark

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

wholesale / rack price

Is EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023) really the reason?

What the pump price did around this date

Actual vs crude-only: Slovenia, diesel (automotive gas oil)

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

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