Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)

Dates: 2022-02-24 → no end date recorded
Dated to: the day
Status: Ongoing
Scope: Ukraine

What the sources said

European Council, special meeting of 24 February 2022, document EUCO 18/22: "European Council conclusions on Russia's unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine"; "The European Council condemns in the strongest possible terms the Russian Federation's unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine." The conclusions are dated and headed 24 February 2022, which is the date recorded here. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official

Retrieved 2026-09-23 07:22 UTCRevision 1

Source documents (2)

CountryGermany France Netherlands Poland Finland Estonia Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czechia Denmark Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden

FuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Italy, Petrol (Euro-super 95). 15 series can be drawn; 4 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

169 published readings, 26 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 52 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-01-25	89.49	-11.800	-11.65%	-2.69
−14	2022-02-10	96.37	-4.920	-4.86%	-1.12
−7	2022-02-17	95.28	-6.010	-5.93%	-1.37
−3	2022-02-21	98.95	-2.340	-2.31%	-0.53
−1	2022-02-23	99.29	-2.000	-1.97%	-0.46
T0	2022-02-24same print as T0	101.3	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-25	98.56	-2.730	-2.70%	-0.62
+3	2022-02-25	98.56	-2.730	-2.70%	-0.62
+7	2022-03-03	115.4	+14.070	+13.89%	+3.20
+14	2022-03-10	114.5	+13.250	+13.08%	+3.02
+30	2022-03-25	122.7	+21.380	+21.11%	+4.87
+60	2022-04-25	99.27	-2.020	-1.99%	-0.46
+90	2022-05-25	116.4	+15.120	+14.93%	+3.44

One volatility unit for this series is 4.34%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (767 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-01-01	4,373,341	-156,192	-3.45%	-0.19
−14	2022-02-01same print as T0	4,529,533	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2022-02-01same print as T0	4,529,533	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2022-02-01same print as T0	4,529,533	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-01same print as T0	4,529,533	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-01same print as T0	4,529,533	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-01same print as T0	4,529,533	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-01same print as T0	4,529,533	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-03-01	4,453,148	-76,385	-1.69%	-0.09
+14	2022-03-01	4,453,148	-76,385	-1.69%	-0.09
+30	2022-03-01	4,453,148	-76,385	-1.69%	-0.09
+60	2022-04-01	5,174,137	+644,604	+14.23%	+0.80
+90	2022-05-01	5,838,451	+1,308,918	+28.90%	+1.62

One volatility unit for this series is 17.84%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-01-24	0.7371	-0.051	-6.45%	-2.70
−14	2022-02-07	0.7642	-0.024	-3.02%	-1.26
−7	2022-02-14	0.7762	-0.012	-1.49%	-0.62
−3	2022-02-21same print as T0	0.7879	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21same print as T0	0.7879	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21same print as T0	0.7879	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21same print as T0	0.7879	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21same print as T0	0.7879	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	0.7880	+0.000	+0.00%	+0.00
+14	2022-03-07	0.8357	+0.048	+6.07%	+2.54
+30	2022-03-21	0.9033	+0.115	+14.64%	+6.12
+60	2022-04-25	0.8991	+0.111	+14.10%	+5.90
+90	2022-05-23	0.9527	+0.165	+20.92%	+8.74

One volatility unit for this series is 2.39%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-01-25	1.127	+0.011	+0.94%	+2.37
−14	2022-02-10	1.144	+0.028	+2.47%	+6.23
−7	2022-02-17	1.137	+0.021	+1.85%	+4.67
−3	2022-02-21	1.134	+0.017	+1.57%	+3.95
−1	2022-02-23	1.134	+0.018	+1.62%	+4.09
T0	2022-02-24same print as T0	1.116	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-25	1.122	+0.005	+0.47%	+1.20
+3	2022-02-25	1.122	+0.005	+0.47%	+1.20
+7	2022-03-03	1.108	-0.009	-0.78%	-1.96
+14	2022-03-10	1.108	-0.008	-0.71%	-1.78
+30	2022-03-25	1.100	-0.016	-1.44%	-3.64
+60	2022-04-25	1.075	-0.042	-3.74%	-9.42
+90	2022-05-25	1.066	-0.051	-4.54%	-11.45

One volatility unit for this series is 0.40%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (770 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-01-01	10.36–16.25	not published	not published	not published
−14	2022-02-01	9.220–15.22	not published	not published	not published
−7	2022-02-01	9.220–15.22	not published	not published	not published
−3	2022-02-01	9.220–15.22	not published	not published	not published
−1	2022-02-01	9.220–15.22	not published	not published	not published
T0	2022-02-01	9.220–15.22	not published	not published	not published
+1	2022-02-01	9.220–15.22	not published	not published	not published
+3	2022-02-01	9.220–15.22	not published	not published	not published
+7	2022-03-01	22.13–26.70	not published	not published	not published
+14	2022-03-01	22.13–26.70	not published	not published	not published
+30	2022-03-01	22.13–26.70	not published	not published	not published
+60	2022-04-01	14.44–22.32	not published	not published	not published
+90	2022-05-01	12.39–14.77	not published	not published	not published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-01-01	0–49.57	not published	not published	not published
−14	2022-02-01	0–11.98	not published	not published	not published
−7	2022-02-01	0–11.98	not published	not published	not published
−3	2022-02-01	0–11.98	not published	not published	not published
−1	2022-02-01	0–11.98	not published	not published	not published
T0	2022-02-01	0–11.98	not published	not published	not published
+1	2022-02-01	0–11.98	not published	not published	not published
+3	2022-02-01	0–11.98	not published	not published	not published
+7	2022-03-01	0–40.00	not published	not published	not published
+14	2022-03-01	0–40.00	not published	not published	not published
+30	2022-03-01	0–40.00	not published	not published	not published
+60	2022-04-01	0–32.15	not published	not published	not published
+90	2022-05-01	4.290–46.48	not published	not published	not published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-01-01	91.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−14	2022-02-01same print as T0	91.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2022-02-01same print as T0	91.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2022-02-01same print as T0	91.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-01same print as T0	91.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-01same print as T0	91.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-01same print as T0	91.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-01same print as T0	91.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-03-01	89.00	-2.000	-2.20%	-3.35
+14	2022-03-01	89.00	-2.000	-2.20%	-3.35
+30	2022-03-01	89.00	-2.000	-2.20%	-3.35
+60	2022-04-01	82.00	-9.000	-9.89%	-15.07
+90	2022-05-01	82.00	-9.000	-9.89%	-15.07

One volatility unit for this series is 0.66%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-01-24	0.5049	-0.049	-8.88%	-1.15
−14	2022-02-07	0.5307	-0.023	-4.22%	-0.55
−7	2022-02-14	0.5419	-0.012	-2.19%	-0.29
−3	2022-02-21same print as T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21same print as T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21same print as T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21same print as T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21same print as T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	0.6491	+0.095	+17.15%	+2.23
+14	2022-03-07	0.7014	+0.147	+26.58%	+3.45
+30	2022-03-21	0.7064	+0.152	+27.49%	+3.57
+60	2022-04-25	0.6165	+0.062	+11.26%	+1.46
+90	2022-05-23	0.6922	+0.138	+24.93%	+3.24

One volatility unit for this series is 7.69%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-01-01	15,711,897	+332,172	+2.16%	+0.61
−14	2022-02-01same print as T0	15,379,725	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2022-02-01same print as T0	15,379,725	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2022-02-01same print as T0	15,379,725	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-01same print as T0	15,379,725	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-01same print as T0	15,379,725	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-01same print as T0	15,379,725	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-01same print as T0	15,379,725	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-03-01	15,503,274	+123,549	+0.80%	+0.23
+14	2022-03-01	15,503,274	+123,549	+0.80%	+0.23
+30	2022-03-01	15,503,274	+123,549	+0.80%	+0.23
+60	2022-04-01	15,335,826	-43,899	-0.29%	-0.08
+90	2022-05-01	15,305,589	-74,136	-0.48%	-0.14

One volatility unit for this series is 3.55%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-01-24	-0.0076	-0.008	not published	not published
−14	2022-02-07	-0.0013	-0.001	not published	not published
−7	2022-02-14	-0.0003	-0.000	not published	not published
−3	2022-02-21same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
−1	2022-02-21same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
T0	2022-02-21same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
+1	2022-02-21same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
+3	2022-02-21same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
+7	2022-02-28	0.0155	+0.015	not published	not published
+14	2022-03-07	0.0368	+0.037	not published	not published
+30	2022-03-21	0.1201	+0.120	not published	not published
+60	2022-04-25	0.0703	+0.070	not published	not published
+90	2022-05-23	0.1042	+0.104	not published	not published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-01-24	1.779	-0.071	-3.85%	-5.94
−14	2022-02-07	1.819	-0.031	-1.66%	-2.55
−7	2022-02-14	1.835	-0.015	-0.79%	-1.22
−3	2022-02-21same print as T0	1.850	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21same print as T0	1.850	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21same print as T0	1.850	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21same print as T0	1.850	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21same print as T0	1.850	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	1.869	+0.019	+1.02%	+1.58
+14	2022-03-07	1.953	+0.103	+5.58%	+8.60
+30	2022-03-21	2.137	+0.287	+15.53%	+23.94
+60	2022-04-25	1.766	-0.084	-4.52%	-6.97
+90	2022-05-23	1.873	+0.023	+1.25%	+1.93

One volatility unit for this series is 0.65%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-01-24	0.7295	-0.058	-7.42%	-4.77
−14	2022-02-07	0.7629	-0.025	-3.18%	-2.05
−7	2022-02-14	0.7759	-0.012	-1.53%	-0.98
−3	2022-02-21same print as T0	0.7879	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21same print as T0	0.7879	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21same print as T0	0.7879	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21same print as T0	0.7879	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21same print as T0	0.7879	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	0.8035	+0.016	+1.97%	+1.27
+14	2022-03-07	0.8725	+0.085	+10.74%	+6.90
+30	2022-03-21	1.023	+0.235	+29.88%	+19.20
+60	2022-04-25	0.9694	+0.181	+23.03%	+14.80
+90	2022-05-23	1.057	+0.269	+34.14%	+21.94

One volatility unit for this series is 1.56%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-01-24	1.049	-0.013	-1.21%	-6.73
−14	2022-02-07	1.056	-0.006	-0.52%	-2.89
−7	2022-02-14	1.059	-0.003	-0.25%	-1.39
−3	2022-02-21same print as T0	1.062	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21same print as T0	1.062	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21same print as T0	1.062	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21same print as T0	1.062	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21same print as T0	1.062	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	1.065	+0.003	+0.32%	+1.78
+14	2022-03-07	1.081	+0.019	+1.75%	+9.74
+30	2022-03-21	1.114	+0.052	+4.88%	+27.10
+60	2022-04-25	0.7969	-0.265	-24.96%	-138.72
+90	2022-05-23	0.8162	-0.246	-23.15%	-128.64

One volatility unit for this series is 0.18%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-01-25	15.43	-1.934	-11.14%	-0.06
−14	2022-02-10	17.95	+0.594	+3.42%	+0.02
−7	2022-02-17	18.67	+1.306	+7.52%	+0.04
−3	2022-02-18	19.03	+1.666	+9.60%	+0.05
−1	2022-02-23	17.39	+0.026	+0.15%	+0.00
T0	2022-02-24same print as T0	17.36	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-25	18.28	+0.924	+5.32%	+0.03
+3	2022-02-25	18.28	+0.924	+5.32%	+0.03
+7	2022-03-03	18.33	+0.966	+5.56%	+0.03
+14	2022-03-10	13.10	-4.262	-24.55%	-0.14
+30	2022-03-25	16.69	-0.674	-3.88%	-0.02
+60	2022-04-25	36.43	+19.072	+109.86%	+0.61
+90	2022-05-25	47.31	+29.946	+172.50%	+0.95

One volatility unit for this series is 180.80%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (751 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2022-01-25	13.79	+0.796	+6.13%	+0.04
−14	2022-02-10	16.48	+3.492	+26.88%	+0.15
−7	2022-02-17	13.25	+0.256	+1.97%	+0.01
−3	2022-02-18	12.98	-0.014	-0.11%	-0.00
−1	2022-02-23	12.89	-0.100	-0.77%	-0.00
T0	2022-02-24same print as T0	12.99	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-25	14.50	+1.512	+11.64%	+0.07
+3	2022-02-25	14.50	+1.512	+11.64%	+0.07
+7	2022-03-03	23.95	+10.962	+84.38%	+0.48
+14	2022-03-10	16.37	+3.382	+26.03%	+0.15
+30	2022-03-25	37.98	+24.988	+192.33%	+1.10
+60	2022-04-25	78.26	+65.272	+502.40%	+2.88
+90	2022-05-25	40.71	+27.720	+213.36%	+1.22

One volatility unit for this series is 174.63%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (751 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

T0 is 2022-02-24. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022) really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), each with its status and one published figure.
Dimension	Status	Published figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.	Range only	22.13–26.70 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2022-03) · no midpoint
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.	Range only	0–40.00 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2022-03) · no midpoint
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.	Observed	89.00 days of cover at +30 d (published 2022-03-01)-2.20% from the level at T0 = -3.35 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.	Observed	122.7 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2022-03-25)+21.11% from the level at T0 = +4.87 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.	Unavailable	EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.	Unavailable	No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.	Unavailable	Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.	Observed	15,503,274 tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-03-01)+0.80% from the level at T0 = +0.23 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.	Unavailable	Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.	Observed	1.023 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-03-21)+29.88% from the level at T0 = +19.20 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.	Observed	2.137 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-03-21)+15.53% from the level at T0 = +23.94 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2022-02-17 to 2022-03-26 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Italy, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/ru-invasion-ukraine-2022/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'ru-invasion-ukraine-2022' and country 'italy'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

In the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Italy's pre-tax petrol price moved +2.0%, which is 1.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.8034500000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
6.729111453514878
t0_value
0.7879400000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.9684239916744959
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.2650231833826182
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.015510000000000024
change_pct_from_t0
1.9684239916744959
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
1.5560378794094618
change_in_volatility_units
1.2650231833826182
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.8034500000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
6.729111453514878
t0_value
0.7879400000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.9684239916744959
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.2650231833826182
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.015510000000000024
change_pct_from_t0
1.9684239916744959
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
1.5560378794094618
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.2650231833826182
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 1d0eb564753cc1636293e990ace1f5bff8a1374ddec3948c91cdf265e32c40b8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Italy's pre-tax petrol price moved +29.9%, which is 19.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.0234
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
20.645901939763014
t0_value
0.7879400000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
29.88298601416351
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
19.20453634811546
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.23546
change_pct_from_t0
29.88298601416351
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.5560378794094618
change_in_volatility_units
19.20453634811546
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.0234
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
20.645901939763014
t0_value
0.7879400000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
29.88298601416351
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
19.20453634811546
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.23546
change_pct_from_t0
29.88298601416351
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.5560378794094618
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
19.20453634811546
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 70f1cd26ad0a7dbb12a8fdc90a9ba7bec22424490dad1807e810ff230b6ad1f2 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Italy's pre-tax petrol price moved +34.1%, which is 21.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.05694
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
22.768062216683955
t0_value
0.7879400000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
34.139655303703314
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
21.94011839651345
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2689999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
34.139655303703314
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.5560378794094618
change_in_volatility_units
21.94011839651345
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.05694
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
22.768062216683955
t0_value
0.7879400000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
34.139655303703314
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
21.94011839651345
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2689999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
34.139655303703314
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.5560378794094618
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
21.94011839651345
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 94b7d7ff0097be09eaa7091b11bd6598f0131c2c6db22ee8316ce2ca8eedbc40 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Italy's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +1.0%, which is 1.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.86886
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
6.729402741644965
t0_value
1.8499400000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.0227358725147748
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.5771532266718142
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.018919999999999826
change_pct_from_t0
1.0227358725147748
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
0.6484695685992425
change_in_volatility_units
1.5771532266718142
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.86886
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
6.729402741644965
t0_value
1.8499400000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.0227358725147748
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.5771532266718142
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.018919999999999826
change_pct_from_t0
1.0227358725147748
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
0.6484695685992425
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.5771532266718142
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint caa62a9b574ff365729941ec1a6c1c5644a30be2a1ee3002b1010330eb2d26ca · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Italy's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +15.5%, which is 23.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
2.13719
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
20.64617066199638
t0_value
1.8499400000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
15.527530622614776
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
23.94488712269992
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2872499999999998
change_pct_from_t0
15.527530622614776
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
0.6484695685992425
change_in_volatility_units
23.94488712269992
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
2.13719
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
20.64617066199638
t0_value
1.8499400000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
15.527530622614776
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
23.94488712269992
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2872499999999998
change_pct_from_t0
15.527530622614776
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
0.6484695685992425
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
23.94488712269992
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 4159d1194b3436f2ed9c9ae96ba5525693cdaafdd5f13754e1d6e700beeae0b0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Italy's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +1.3%, which is 1.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.8731099999999998
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
6.949826338192096
t0_value
1.8499400000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.2524730531800863
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.9314291893227158
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.02316999999999969
change_pct_from_t0
1.2524730531800863
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
0.6484695685992425
change_in_volatility_units
1.9314291893227158
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.8731099999999998
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
6.949826338192096
t0_value
1.8499400000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.2524730531800863
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.9314291893227158
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.02316999999999969
change_pct_from_t0
1.2524730531800863
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
0.6484695685992425
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.9314291893227158
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 96d1885541e6f5a38b02403bc946e4508d476b8781fec24a3f58535634f92ee1 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Italy's pre-tax diesel price moved +1.9%, which is 1.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.8092100000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
6.635744034446805
t0_value
0.79437
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.8681470851114814
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.2328393330087561
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.014840000000000075
change_pct_from_t0
1.8681470851114814
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
1.5153208006044474
change_in_volatility_units
1.2328393330087561
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.8092100000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
6.635744034446805
t0_value
0.79437
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.8681470851114814
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.2328393330087561
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.014840000000000075
change_pct_from_t0
1.8681470851114814
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
1.5153208006044474
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.2328393330087561
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 7afcb65864024d1987f969f8b03e43707ec702bb16fa7b86ddce7b7317505809 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Italy's pre-tax diesel price moved +41.5%, which is 27.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.12404
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
25.382014930782443
t0_value
0.79437
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
41.50081196419803
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
27.38747593753332
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.3296699999999999
change_pct_from_t0
41.50081196419803
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.5153208006044474
change_in_volatility_units
27.38747593753332
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.12404
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
25.382014930782443
t0_value
0.79437
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
41.50081196419803
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
27.38747593753332
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.3296699999999999
change_pct_from_t0
41.50081196419803
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.5153208006044474
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
27.38747593753332
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 09487886ed07c4c84f984c04bb791ff0ed702a013aacc31e2e28729ba5a26c4e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Italy's pre-tax diesel price moved +41.5%, which is 27.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.12436
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
25.401069044706876
t0_value
0.79437
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
41.54109545929479
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
27.414060074094166
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.32999
change_pct_from_t0
41.54109545929479
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.5153208006044474
change_in_volatility_units
27.414060074094166
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.12436
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
25.401069044706876
t0_value
0.79437
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
41.54109545929479
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
27.414060074094166
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.32999
change_pct_from_t0
41.54109545929479
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.5153208006044474
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
27.414060074094166
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint b6e9b4421f18c4b279123df56ca9ea6d91077d9a53848cc5ee0c6f71c0b3f827 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Italy's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +1.1%, which is 1.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.74047
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
6.636026265100252
t0_value
1.72236
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.051464269955182
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.4882088222533558
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.01811000000000007
change_pct_from_t0
1.051464269955182
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
0.7065300609917889
change_in_volatility_units
1.4882088222533558
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.74047
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
6.636026265100252
t0_value
1.72236
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.051464269955182
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.4882088222533558
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.01811000000000007
change_pct_from_t0
1.051464269955182
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
0.7065300609917889
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.4882088222533558
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 7f84dc8c18f7c4f309b4d8f3aff96b8caa4545774de8e0f38f2608f5e42a7a43 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Italy's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +23.4%, which is 33.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
2.12456
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
25.38260218244772
t0_value
1.72236
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
23.351680252676555
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
33.051219674781734
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.4021999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
23.351680252676555
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
0.7065300609917889
change_in_volatility_units
33.051219674781734
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
2.12456
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
25.38260218244772
t0_value
1.72236
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
23.351680252676555
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
33.051219674781734
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.4021999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
23.351680252676555
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
0.7065300609917889
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
33.051219674781734
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 40e8805423059423556f3db8c9709575eea6bf5a709864473d38e693ba1add5b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Italy's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +5.7%, which is 8.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.8199500000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
10.515267729108118
t0_value
1.72236
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
5.666062844004755
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
8.019563719696569
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.09759000000000029
change_pct_from_t0
5.666062844004755
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
0.7065300609917889
change_in_volatility_units
8.019563719696569
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.8199500000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
10.515267729108118
t0_value
1.72236
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
5.666062844004755
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
8.019563719696569
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.09759000000000029
change_pct_from_t0
5.666062844004755
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
0.7065300609917889
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
8.019563719696569
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint f6fc268da7e7eb4e93b5c4da543e61a817c03f45c85504729b20034737ce409e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 4 weeks after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Italy's pre-tax petrol price by +11.5 c/L (range +2.9–+20.1); it actually moved +23.5 c/L, leaving +12.0 c/L not explained by crude.
about ItalyCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-03-21
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
observation_date
2022-03-21
gap_eur_per_litre
0.12008630525158388
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
actual_eur_per_litre
0.23546
expected_eur_per_litre
0.11537369474841612
proxy_volatility_units
-0.11680573781220037
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-4.018000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.029359195932022474
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.2013881935648113
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
180.79993207863203
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-03-21
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-03-21
gap_eur_per_litre
0.12008630525158388
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.23546
expected_eur_per_litre
0.11537369474841612
proxy_volatility_units
-0.11680573781220037
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-4.018000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.029359195932022474
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.2013881935648113
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
180.79993207863203
Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 16d2892a1e6cb83ef9a030610408678c07596dcb6fcdb81443a88d264f6f8e69 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 13 weeks after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Italy's pre-tax petrol price by +16.5 c/L (range -0.3–+33.2); it actually moved +26.9 c/L, leaving +10.4 c/L not explained by crude.
about ItalyCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-05-23
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
observation_date
2022-05-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.10420074337689056
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
actual_eur_per_litre
0.2689999999999999
expected_eur_per_litre
0.16479925662310935
proxy_volatility_units
0.8092678270821386
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
27.837999999999997
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.00259145296128299
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.332189966207504
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
180.79993207863203
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-05-23
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-05-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.10420074337689056
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.2689999999999999
expected_eur_per_litre
0.16479925662310935
proxy_volatility_units
0.8092678270821386
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
27.837999999999997
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.00259145296128299
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.332189966207504
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
180.79993207863203
Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint a4aca6e780da82a3fd5f42298e556caae9e5c0175e154c143e998567af2f2224 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 4 weeks after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Italy's pre-tax diesel price by +23.8 c/L (range +16.4–+31.2); it actually moved +33.0 c/L, leaving +9.2 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 22.2 $/bbl.
about ItalyCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_DIESEL
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-03-21
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
observation_date
2022-03-21
gap_eur_per_litre
0.09161703251520206
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
actual_eur_per_litre
0.3296699999999999
expected_eur_per_litre
0.23805296748479784
proxy_volatility_units
12.233577860390142
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
22.231999999999996
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.16386784862235693
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.3122380863472387
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
8.450955055544933
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_DIESEL
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-03-21
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-03-21
gap_eur_per_litre
0.09161703251520206
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.3296699999999999
expected_eur_per_litre
0.23805296748479784
proxy_volatility_units
12.233577860390142
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
22.231999999999996
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.16386784862235693
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.3122380863472387
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
8.450955055544933
Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 7633b1894e4c9d58f0242a3284c0ec4829c0adc5015b3512a80e84eea027195b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 13 weeks after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Italy's pre-tax diesel price by +37.1 c/L (range +21.3–+52.9); it actually moved +33.0 c/L, leaving -4.1 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 29.9 $/bbl.
about ItalyCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_DIESEL
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-05-23
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
observation_date
2022-05-23
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.04118641328144784
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
actual_eur_per_litre
0.32999
expected_eur_per_litre
0.37117641328144785
proxy_volatility_units
16.427727304969743
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
29.853999999999996
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.2130231483375013
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.5293296782253949
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
8.450955055544933
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_DIESEL
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-05-23
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-05-23
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.04118641328144784
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.32999
expected_eur_per_litre
0.37117641328144785
proxy_volatility_units
16.427727304969743
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
29.853999999999996
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.2130231483375013
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.5293296782253949
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
8.450955055544933
Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint c769335e942d43b14055d43bd10e68e395d8f398a7c2a79e0e71ca72ca3d8f2e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was moderate (9%–15%) for Italy in 2022-02. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.
about ItalyCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Italy
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
value_max_pct
15.2249907440789
value_min_pct
9.21977724855962
exposure_status
PARTIAL
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-02-01
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Italy
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
value_max_pct
15.2249907440789
value_min_pct
9.21977724855962
exposure_status
PARTIAL
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint 96b9690290da057be1dadc5119043ce4dbbc97c69e49895ecbd2098938ac2fcb · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was moderate (0%–12%) for Italy in 2022-02. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.
about ItalyCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Italy
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
value_max_pct
11.9843408140207
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-02-01
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Italy
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
value_max_pct
11.9843408140207
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint 48b9ca18ffa85da351bcad13d988791121e10e285101b0d9ec41ac0680d3a839 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Available evidence does not show a physical supply reduction: Italy's reported crude imports in 2022-02 were -4.5% against the mean of the previous 12 months.
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-02
country
Italy
change_pct
-4.4619817475096895
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
partner_role
ORIGIN
value_tonnes
4529533
baseline_months
12
observation_date
2022-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
baseline_mean_tonnes
4741079.083333333
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
min_baseline_months
6
baseline_months_used
12
supply_reduction_pct
-10
supply_baseline_months
12
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-02
country
Italy
change_pct
-4.4619817475096895
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
partner_role
ORIGIN
value_tonnes
4529533
baseline_months
12
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
baseline_mean_tonnes
4741079.083333333
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.supply.no_reduction v1.1 · Fingerprint 8eb1f6da029164651d1f34535e912e988bb27280bf78102f791f0a0a6b493970 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In 2022-02, Italy's oil stocks stood 6.2% below their trailing 12-month mean, with 91.0 days of cover (as published).
about ItalyCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
direction
below
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_IT
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
days_of_cover
91
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
-2.114143187165751
observation_date
2022-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
15379725
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
observation_gap_days
23
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
16397040.666666666
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
-6.204263850700539
trailing_12m_observations
12
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
band_applied_to
the rounded figure printed in the sentence
days_of_cover_basis
as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
trailing_window_months
12
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
-6.204263850700539
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
-6.2
inventory_material_deviation_pct
5
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
direction
below
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_IT
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
days_of_cover
91
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
-2.114143187165751
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
15379725
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
23
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
16397040.666666666
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
-6.204263850700539
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
trailing_12m_observations
12
Template event.inventory_level.below v1.1 · Fingerprint adc2f66871afdfd0933f04fb220f4e8e39386242d93f9cc83be8b52062d00e6f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Summary of what can be checked here
Only part of the chain can be checked for Italy around Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022): 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was moderate (9–15%) over the period covered. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.
about ItalyUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
country
Italy
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
dependence_band
moderate
dependence_range
9–15%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
channels_total
8
channels_available
4
verdict_partial_min_channels
3
verdict_assessable_min_channels
8
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
country
Italy
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
dependence_band
moderate
statement_topic
event
dependence_range
9–15%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint b13c8b9b3191c2a022f394bf7050a4de7c6c274ab767652792e7f1e3a6ab99d9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), the Brent crude benchmark moved +13.9%, which is 3.2 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
115.36
status
OBSERVED
z_score
5.841150770454914
t0_value
101.29
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
13.890808569454036
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-03-03
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.203825480890899
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
14.069999999999993
change_pct_from_t0
13.890808569454036
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.335694516541323
change_in_volatility_units
3.203825480890899
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
115.36
status
OBSERVED
z_score
5.841150770454914
t0_value
101.29
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
13.890808569454036
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-03-03
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.203825480890899
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
14.069999999999993
change_pct_from_t0
13.890808569454036
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.335694516541323
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
3.203825480890899
Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 499e14f143cd15685ef1480ed3fa89cd45abe5f0647c7ec6a69249dfc87c1dd1 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), the Brent crude benchmark moved +21.1%, which is 4.9 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
122.67
status
OBSERVED
z_score
6.996054504576924
t0_value
101.29
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
21.107710534109977
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-03-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
4.868357411616733
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
21.379999999999995
change_pct_from_t0
21.107710534109977
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.335694516541323
change_in_volatility_units
4.868357411616733
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
122.67
status
OBSERVED
z_score
6.996054504576924
t0_value
101.29
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
21.107710534109977
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-03-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
4.868357411616733
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
21.379999999999995
change_pct_from_t0
21.107710534109977
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.335694516541323
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
4.868357411616733
Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 216049ee46b7aafc7c24ef4f74d592168c4ca36a76f9b7e30eb4f402126d0f04 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), the Brent crude benchmark moved +14.9%, which is 3.4 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
116.41
status
OBSERVED
z_score
6.007039815711837
t0_value
101.29
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
14.927436074637171
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.4429169346887267
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
15.11999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
14.927436074637171
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.335694516541323
change_in_volatility_units
3.4429169346887267
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
116.41
status
OBSERVED
z_score
6.007039815711837
t0_value
101.29
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
14.927436074637171
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.4429169346887267
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
15.11999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
14.927436074637171
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.335694516541323
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
3.4429169346887267
Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3c4d928f0edacc86e86f81949df4a6221c6a157e987b0435ccf81af9f53e267c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 06b89c2e9e647323c15398c394cf050a39c9a42ef3b469967cce5fff091ed96a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint eacf068451f42ad71340259d5f692acb03bf66b7a7d6f730ade5a819ff7d1005 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 0a8ec24923eb853f8772aa729f8ec775267350a63bc1d8e64f27facfb62978a7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 92e561b810be016411f6a7bbc96381cc8ebec1f6df6e0ae2fd7fc342f4dc1c9f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Italy: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.

Europe Brent spot FOB

reported crude oil imports, all origins

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Not available: licence-blocked

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

EU refined-product benchmark

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

wholesale / rack price

Is Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022) really the reason?

What the pump price did around this date

Actual vs crude-only: Italy, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

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