Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In November 2024, Bulgaria's road diesel supply was 287 kt: 81% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Egypt (10%); tracing one step back, no single crude origin reaches 5% of it, and 94% cannot be traced.
Country
Kazakhstan8.0 kt (est. 3%)Azerbaijan2.7 kt (est. <1%)Iraq2.3 kt (est. <1%)Norway1.7 kt (est. <1%)Libya1.2 kt (est. <1%)Saudi Arabia0.8 kt (est. <1%)Egypt0.5 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins0.7 kt (est. <1%)Bulgaria: crude origin not reported210 kt (73%)Egypt: no crude data30 kt (10%)Bulgaria: crude not from imports22 kt (8%)Romania: crude not from imports3.2 kt (1%)Smaller flows: no crude data2.3 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported1.4 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Bulgaria (own refineries)233 kt (81%)Egypt30 kt (10%)Romania14 kt (5%)Greece8.3 kt (3%)Serbia2.3 kt (<1%)Belgiumless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Bulgaria: road diesel supply287 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Kazakhstan8.0 kt (est. 3%)
- Azerbaijan2.7 kt (est. <1%)
- Iraq2.3 kt (est. <1%)
- Norway1.7 kt (est. <1%)
- Libya1.2 kt (est. <1%)
- Saudi Arabia0.8 kt (est. <1%)
- Egypt0.5 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins0.7 kt (est. <1%)
- Bulgaria: crude origin not reported210 kt (73%)
- Egypt: no crude data30 kt (10%)
- Bulgaria: crude not from imports22 kt (8%)
- Romania: crude not from imports3.2 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: no crude data2.3 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported1.4 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Where the fuel was refined
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Nov 2024)
2.7 thousand tonnes
est. <1% of Bulgaria's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported2.7 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Refined in
- Romania2.2 kt (est. 83%)
- Greece0.5 kt (est. 17%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria (own refineries) | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 232,601 | 80.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Egypt | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 30,079 | 10.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Romania | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 14,160 | 4.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Greece | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 8,257 | 2.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Serbia | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 2,272 | 0.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria: crude origin not reported | Bulgaria (own refineries) | 210,419 | 90.5% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Egypt: no crude data | Egypt | 30,079 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Bulgaria: crude not from imports | Bulgaria (own refineries) | 22,182 | 9.5% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Kazakhstan | Romania | 5,741 | 40.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Romania: crude not from imports | Romania | 3,167 | 22.4% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Kazakhstan | Greece | 2,284 | 27.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: no crude data | Serbia | 2,272 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Iraq | Greece | 2,271 | 27.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Azerbaijan | Romania | 2,227 | 15.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Romania | 1,287 | 9.1% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Norway | Romania | 940 | 6.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Greece | 887 | 10.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Greece | 829 | 10.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Greece | 707 | 8.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Egypt | Greece | 501 | 6.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Azerbaijan | Greece | 456 | 5.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Romania | 438 | 3.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Romania | 361 | 2.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Greece | 202 | 2.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Greece | 119 | 1.4% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 12 | 50.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Belgium | 5 | 20.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Belgium | 3 | 11.2% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Kazakhstan | Belgium | 2 | 8.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Belgium | 1 | 5.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Belgium | 1 | 3.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Belgium | 0 | 0.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2024-11 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2024-11 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the countries whose refineries made it. Right: Bulgaria’s supply of road diesel in 2024-11, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2024-11 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2024-09 to 2024-11.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Bulgaria: crude origin not reported (210,419 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Egypt: no crude data (30,079 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Bulgaria: crude not from imports (22,182 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Romania: crude not from imports (3,167 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: no crude data (2,272 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (1,409 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (0 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only; fuel re-exported through a supplier is not followed further.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.