Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In December 2024, Bulgaria's road diesel supply was 316 kt: 83% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Egypt (10%) and Romania (5%); tracing one step back, no single crude origin reaches 5% of it, and 95% cannot be traced.
Country
Kazakhstan7.6 kt (est. 2%)Azerbaijan2.3 kt (est. <1%)Libya1.2 kt (est. <1%)Iraq1.2 kt (est. <1%)Congo0.7 kt (est. <1%)Norway0.7 kt (est. <1%)Saudi Arabia0.3 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins0.5 kt (est. <1%)Bulgaria: crude origin not reported260 kt (82%)Egypt: no crude data30 kt (10%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports5.7 kt (2%)Smaller flows: no crude data2.8 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported2.3 kt (<1%)Bulgaria (own refineries)263 kt (83%)Egypt30 kt (10%)Romania16 kt (5%)Greece3.9 kt (1%)Serbia2.2 kt (<1%)India0.6 kt (<1%)Belgium0.1 kt (<1%)Bulgaria: road diesel supply316 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Kazakhstan7.6 kt (est. 2%)
- Azerbaijan2.3 kt (est. <1%)
- Libya1.2 kt (est. <1%)
- Iraq1.2 kt (est. <1%)
- Congo0.7 kt (est. <1%)
- Norway0.7 kt (est. <1%)
- Saudi Arabia0.3 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins0.5 kt (est. <1%)
- Bulgaria: crude origin not reported260 kt (82%)
- Egypt: no crude data30 kt (10%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports5.7 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: no crude data2.8 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported2.3 kt (<1%)
Where the fuel was refined
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Dec 2024)
2.3 thousand tonnes
est. <1% of Bulgaria's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported2.3 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Refined in
- Romania2.0 kt (est. 87%)
- Greece0.3 kt (est. 13%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria (own refineries) | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 262,837 | 83.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Egypt | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 30,120 | 9.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Romania | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 16,078 | 5.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Greece | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 3,853 | 1.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Serbia | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 2,215 | 0.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| India | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 598 | 0.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria: crude origin not reported | Bulgaria (own refineries) | 260,356 | 99.1% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Egypt: no crude data | Egypt | 30,120 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Kazakhstan | Romania | 6,746 | 42.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2024-10 to 2024-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Romania | 2,968 | 18.5% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Bulgaria (own refineries) | 2,481 | 0.9% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: no crude data | Serbia | 2,215 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Romania | 2,154 | 13.4% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Azerbaijan | Romania | 2,046 | 12.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2024-10 to 2024-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Greece | 1,163 | 30.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-10 to 2024-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Romania | 855 | 5.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2024-10 to 2024-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Greece | 829 | 21.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-10 to 2024-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Congo | Romania | 696 | 4.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2024-10 to 2024-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: no crude data | India | 598 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Norway | Romania | 531 | 3.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2024-10 to 2024-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Greece | 403 | 10.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-10 to 2024-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Greece | 386 | 10.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-10 to 2024-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Greece | 331 | 8.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-10 to 2024-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Azerbaijan | Greece | 297 | 7.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-10 to 2024-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Greece | 216 | 5.6% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Norway | Greece | 116 | 3.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-10 to 2024-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Greece | 112 | 2.9% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Other crude origins | Romania | 82 | 0.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2024-10 to 2024-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 37 | 53.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-10 to 2024-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Belgium | 14 | 20.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-10 to 2024-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Belgium | 6 | 9.2% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Kazakhstan | Belgium | 6 | 8.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-10 to 2024-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Belgium | 3 | 4.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-10 to 2024-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Belgium | 3 | 3.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-10 to 2024-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Belgium | 1 | 0.8% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2024-12 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2024-12 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the countries whose refineries made it. Right: Bulgaria’s supply of road diesel in 2024-12, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2024-12 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2024-10 to 2024-12.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Bulgaria: crude origin not reported (260,356 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Egypt: no crude data (30,120 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (5,665 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: no crude data (2,813 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (2,272 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only; fuel re-exported through a supplier is not followed further.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.