Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In September 2024, Bulgaria's road diesel supply was 271 kt: 92% from its own refineries; tracing one step back, no single crude origin reaches 5% of it, and 94% cannot be traced.
Country
Kazakhstan6.5 kt (est. 2%)Iraq3.7 kt (est. 1%)Libya2.1 kt (est. <1%)Norway1.3 kt (est. <1%)Saudi Arabia0.8 kt (est. <1%)Azerbaijan0.7 kt (est. <1%)Congo0.4 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins0.9 kt (est. <1%)Bulgaria: crude origin not reported246 kt (91%)Bulgaria: crude not from imports3.3 kt (1%)Smaller flows: no crude data2.4 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports2.1 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.5 kt (<1%)Bulgaria (own refineries)249 kt (92%)Greece10 kt (4%)Romania8.5 kt (3%)Serbia2.4 kt (<1%)Bulgaria: road diesel supply271 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Bulgaria (own refineries)
- Greece
- Romania
- Serbia
- Kazakhstan6.5 kt (est. 2%)
- Iraq3.7 kt (est. 1%)
- Libya2.1 kt (est. <1%)
- Norway1.3 kt (est. <1%)
- Saudi Arabia0.8 kt (est. <1%)
- Azerbaijan0.7 kt (est. <1%)
- Congo0.4 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins0.9 kt (est. <1%)
- Bulgaria: crude origin not reported246 kt (91%)
- Bulgaria: crude not from imports3.3 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: no crude data2.4 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports2.1 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.5 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Sep 2024)
367 tonnes
est. <1% of Bulgaria's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported0.4 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Romania0.4 kt (est. 100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria (own refineries) | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 249,170 | 92.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Greece | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 10,444 | 3.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Romania | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 8,475 | 3.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Serbia | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 2,420 | 0.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria: crude origin not reported | Bulgaria (own refineries) | 245,832 | 98.7% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Iraq | Greece | 3,659 | 35.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Romania | 3,606 | 42.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Bulgaria: crude not from imports | Bulgaria (own refineries) | 3,338 | 1.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Kazakhstan | Greece | 2,943 | 28.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: no crude data | Serbia | 2,420 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Romania | 2,064 | 24.4% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Libya | Greece | 1,663 | 15.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Greece | 936 | 9.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Greece | 835 | 8.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Azerbaijan | Romania | 732 | 8.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Romania | 568 | 6.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Romania | 446 | 5.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Romania | 373 | 4.4% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Congo | Romania | 367 | 4.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Romania | 318 | 3.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Greece | 289 | 2.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Greece | 119 | 1.1% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
Source & method
Source Period 2024-09 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2024-09 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Bulgaria’s supply of road diesel in 2024-09, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2024-09 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2024-07 to 2024-09.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Bulgaria: crude origin not reported (245,832 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Bulgaria: crude not from imports (3,338 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: no crude data (2,420 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (2,064 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (491 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.