Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In July 2026, Bulgaria's petrol supply was 151 kt: 90% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Romania (8%); tracing one step back, no single crude origin reaches 5% of it, and 94% cannot be traced.
Country
Kazakhstan5.4 kt (est. 4%)Azerbaijan1.9 kt (est. 1%)Canada0.8 kt (est. <1%)Libya0.7 kt (est. <1%)Guyana0.2 kt (est. <1%)Ukraine0.1 kt (est. <1%)Iraqless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins0.1 kt (est. <1%)Bulgaria: crude origin not reported136 kt (90%)Romania: crude not from imports3.3 kt (2%)Serbia: no crude data2.7 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.2 kt (<1%)Bulgaria (own refineries)136 kt (90%)Romania12 kt (8%)Serbia2.7 kt (2%)Greece0.2 kt (<1%)Bulgaria: petrol supply151 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Bulgaria (own refineries)
- Romania
- Serbia
- Greece
- Kazakhstan5.4 kt (est. 4%)
- Azerbaijan1.9 kt (est. 1%)
- Canada0.8 kt (est. <1%)
- Libya0.7 kt (est. <1%)
- Guyana0.2 kt (est. <1%)
- Ukraine0.1 kt (est. <1%)
- Iraqless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins0.1 kt (est. <1%)
- Bulgaria: crude origin not reported136 kt (90%)
- Romania: crude not from imports3.3 kt (2%)
- Serbia: no crude data2.7 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.2 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this petrol, an estimate (Jul 2026)
658 tonnes
est. <1% of Bulgaria's petrol supply
less than 0.1 kt reported0.7 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Romania0.6 kt (est. 96%)
- Greeceless than 0.1 kt (est. 4%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria (own refineries) | Bulgaria: petrol supply | 135,937 | 89.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Romania | Bulgaria: petrol supply | 12,278 | 8.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Serbia | Bulgaria: petrol supply | 2,745 | 1.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Greece | Bulgaria: petrol supply | 224 | 0.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria: crude origin not reported | Bulgaria (own refineries) | 135,714 | 99.8% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Kazakhstan | Romania | 5,347 | 43.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's petrol to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Romania: crude not from imports | Romania | 3,267 | 26.6% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Serbia: no crude data | Serbia | 2,745 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Azerbaijan | Romania | 1,917 | 15.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's petrol to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Canada | Romania | 776 | 6.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's petrol to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Romania | 629 | 5.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's petrol to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Bulgaria (own refineries) | 223 | 0.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Guyana | Romania | 194 | 1.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's petrol to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Ukraine | Romania | 147 | 1.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's petrol to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Greece | 88 | 39.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's petrol to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Greece | 52 | 23.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's petrol to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Greece | 38 | 17.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's petrol to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Greece | 30 | 13.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's petrol to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Greece | 9 | 4.0% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Guyana | Greece | 7 | 3.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's petrol to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
Source & method
Source Period 2026-07 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2026-07 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Bulgaria’s supply of petrol in 2026-07, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2026-07 (latest month that can be drawn, the month its country page shows). Crude mixes are pooled over 2026-05 to 2026-07.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Bulgaria: crude origin not reported (135,714 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Romania: crude not from imports (3,267 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Serbia: no crude data (2,745 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (232 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.