Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In March 2025, Bulgaria's road diesel supply was 143 kt: 18% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Türkiye (63%) and Romania (9%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Kazakhstan (6%), and 87% cannot be traced.
Country
Kazakhstan8.3 kt (est. 6%)Azerbaijan2.2 kt (est. 2%)Libya2.0 kt (est. 1%)Iraq1.5 kt (est. 1%)Russia1.3 kt (est. <1%)Norway0.8 kt (est. <1%)Guyana0.7 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins1.9 kt (est. 1%)Türkiye: no crude data90 kt (63%)Bulgaria: crude origin not reported23 kt (16%)Bulgaria: crude not from imports3.0 kt (2%)Romania: crude not from imports3.0 kt (2%)Origin not reported: crude unknown2.1 kt (2%)Serbia: no crude data2.0 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.4 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.2 kt (<1%)Bulgaria (own refineries)26 kt (18%)Türkiye90 kt (63%)Romania13 kt (9%)Greece4.7 kt (3%)Netherlands2.8 kt (2%)Serbia2.0 kt (1%)Hungary1.7 kt (1%)Belgiumless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Imports, origin not reported2.1 kt (2%)Bulgaria: road diesel supply143 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Türkiye
- Bulgaria (own refineries)
- Romania
- Greece
- Netherlands
- Serbia
- Hungary
- Belgium
- Other (1)
- Kazakhstan8.3 kt (est. 6%)
- Azerbaijan2.2 kt (est. 2%)
- Libya2.0 kt (est. 1%)
- Iraq1.5 kt (est. 1%)
- Russia1.3 kt (est. <1%)
- Norway0.8 kt (est. <1%)
- Guyana0.7 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins1.9 kt (est. 1%)
- Türkiye: no crude data90 kt (63%)
- Bulgaria: crude origin not reported23 kt (16%)
- Bulgaria: crude not from imports3.0 kt (2%)
- Romania: crude not from imports3.0 kt (2%)
- Origin not reported: crude unknown2.1 kt (2%)
- Serbia: no crude data2.0 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.4 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.2 kt (<1%)
Where the fuel was refined
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Road diesel supplied (Mar 2025)
12.9 thousand tonnes
9% of Bulgaria's road diesel supply
Official
Crude behind it (estimate)
- Kazakhstan6.4 kt (est. 50%)
- Romania: crude not from imports3.0 kt (23%)
- Azerbaijan2.1 kt (est. 16%)
and 2 more in the table above
Source: Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis); Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 89,947 | 63.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Bulgaria (own refineries) | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 26,319 | 18.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Romania | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 12,861 | 9.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Greece | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 4,743 | 3.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 2,800 | 2.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Imports, origin not reported | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 2,148 | 1.5% | Summed by usPublisher's import total minus the named partners. |
| Serbia | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 2,041 | 1.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Hungary | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 1,687 | 1.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye: no crude data | Türkiye | 89,947 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Bulgaria: crude origin not reported | Bulgaria (own refineries) | 23,274 | 88.4% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Kazakhstan | Romania | 6,407 | 49.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Bulgaria: crude not from imports | Bulgaria (own refineries) | 3,045 | 11.6% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Romania: crude not from imports | Romania | 2,957 | 23.0% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Origin not reported: crude unknown | Imports, origin not reported | 2,148 | 100.0% | UnknownThe statistics did not say which country these imports came from. |
| Azerbaijan | Romania | 2,063 | 16.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Serbia: no crude data | Serbia | 2,041 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Kazakhstan | Greece | 1,400 | 29.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 1,356 | 48.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Greece | 1,255 | 26.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Russia | Hungary | 1,251 | 74.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Greece | 1,135 | 23.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Romania | 728 | 5.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Romania | 707 | 5.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Greece | 504 | 10.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 497 | 17.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 410 | 14.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Hungary | 349 | 20.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Norway | Greece | 305 | 6.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Netherlands | 220 | 7.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 177 | 6.3% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Azerbaijan | Greece | 143 | 3.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Netherlands | 103 | 3.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Azerbaijan | Hungary | 41 | 2.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Netherlands | 37 | 1.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Kazakhstan | Hungary | 28 | 1.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 22 | 47.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Hungary | 18 | 1.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Belgium | 10 | 21.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Belgium | 6 | 13.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Belgium | 3 | 6.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Belgium | 2 | 4.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Belgium | 2 | 3.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Belgium | 1 | 2.0% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Azerbaijan | Belgium | 1 | 1.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2025-03 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-03 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the countries whose refineries made it. Right: Bulgaria’s supply of road diesel in 2025-03, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2025-03 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-01 to 2025-03.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Türkiye: no crude data (89,947 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Bulgaria: crude origin not reported (23,274 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Bulgaria: crude not from imports (3,045 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Romania: crude not from imports (2,957 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Origin not reported: crude unknown (2,148 t): The statistics did not say which country these imports came from.
- Serbia: no crude data (2,041 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (386 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (178 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Imports, origin not reported (2,148 t): The statistics did not say which country these imports came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only; fuel re-exported through a supplier is not followed further.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.