Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In February 2026, Bulgaria's road diesel supply was 263 kt: 83% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Turkmenistan (11%); tracing one step back, no single crude origin reaches 5% of it, and 96% cannot be traced.
Country
Kazakhstan5.6 kt (est. 2%)Azerbaijan1.9 kt (est. <1%)Norway0.5 kt (est. <1%)Côte d’Ivoire0.5 kt (est. <1%)Libya0.4 kt (est. <1%)Guyana0.3 kt (est. <1%)Ukraine0.1 kt (est. <1%)Other crude originsless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)Bulgaria: crude origin not reported218 kt (83%)Turkmenistan: no crude data30 kt (11%)Romania: crude not from imports3.2 kt (1%)Serbia: no crude data3.0 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Bulgaria (own refineries)218 kt (83%)Turkmenistan30 kt (11%)Romania12 kt (5%)Serbia3.0 kt (1%)Belgiumless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Bulgaria: road diesel supply263 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Bulgaria (own refineries)
- Turkmenistan
- Romania
- Serbia
- Belgium
- Kazakhstan5.6 kt (est. 2%)
- Azerbaijan1.9 kt (est. <1%)
- Norway0.5 kt (est. <1%)
- Côte d’Ivoire0.5 kt (est. <1%)
- Libya0.4 kt (est. <1%)
- Guyana0.3 kt (est. <1%)
- Ukraine0.1 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude originsless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)
- Bulgaria: crude origin not reported218 kt (83%)
- Turkmenistan: no crude data30 kt (11%)
- Romania: crude not from imports3.2 kt (1%)
- Serbia: no crude data3.0 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Feb 2026)
29.6 thousand tonnes
11% of Bulgaria's road diesel supply
Unknown
Last shipped from
- Turkmenistan30 kt (100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria (own refineries) | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 217,967 | 82.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Turkmenistan | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 29,557 | 11.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Romania | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 12,462 | 4.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Serbia | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 2,999 | 1.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria: crude origin not reported | Bulgaria (own refineries) | 217,967 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Turkmenistan: no crude data | Turkmenistan | 29,557 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Kazakhstan | Romania | 5,586 | 44.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Romania: crude not from imports | Romania | 3,176 | 25.5% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Serbia: no crude data | Serbia | 2,999 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Azerbaijan | Romania | 1,857 | 14.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Côte d’Ivoire | Romania | 523 | 4.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Romania | 513 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Romania | 393 | 3.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Romania | 329 | 2.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Ukraine | Romania | 85 | 0.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 23 | 49.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Belgium | 15 | 32.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Belgium | 4 | 8.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Belgium | 4 | 8.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Belgium | 0 | 0.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2026-02 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2026-02 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Bulgaria’s supply of road diesel in 2026-02, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2026-02 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-12 to 2026-02.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Bulgaria: crude origin not reported (217,967 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Turkmenistan: no crude data (29,557 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Romania: crude not from imports (3,176 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Serbia: no crude data (2,999 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (0 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.