Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In October 2025, Bulgaria's road diesel supply was 300 kt: 84% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Kuwait (9%); tracing one step back, no single crude origin reaches 5% of it, and 97% cannot be traced.
Country
Iraq2.6 kt (est. <1%)Kazakhstan2.6 kt (est. <1%)Libya1.4 kt (est. <1%)Saudi Arabia0.6 kt (est. <1%)Azerbaijan0.5 kt (est. <1%)Norway0.5 kt (est. <1%)Egypt0.2 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins0.2 kt (est. <1%)Bulgaria: crude origin not reported251 kt (84%)Kuwait: no crude data27 kt (9%)Egypt: no crude data6.1 kt (2%)Azerbaijan: no crude data5.1 kt (2%)Smaller flows: no crude data1.9 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.3 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.1 kt (<1%)Bulgaria (own refineries)251 kt (84%)Kuwait27 kt (9%)Greece6.6 kt (2%)Egypt6.1 kt (2%)Azerbaijan5.1 kt (2%)Romania2.3 kt (<1%)Serbia1.9 kt (<1%)Bulgaria: road diesel supply300 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Bulgaria (own refineries)
- Kuwait
- Greece
- Egypt
- Azerbaijan
- Romania
- Serbia
- Iraq2.6 kt (est. <1%)
- Kazakhstan2.6 kt (est. <1%)
- Libya1.4 kt (est. <1%)
- Saudi Arabia0.6 kt (est. <1%)
- Azerbaijan0.5 kt (est. <1%)
- Norway0.5 kt (est. <1%)
- Egypt0.2 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins0.2 kt (est. <1%)
- Bulgaria: crude origin not reported251 kt (84%)
- Kuwait: no crude data27 kt (9%)
- Egypt: no crude data6.1 kt (2%)
- Azerbaijan: no crude data5.1 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: no crude data1.9 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.3 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Oct 2025)
319 tonnes
<1% of Bulgaria's road diesel supply
Unknown
Last shipped from
- Romania0.3 kt (100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria (own refineries) | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 250,582 | 83.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Kuwait | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 26,918 | 9.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Greece | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 6,604 | 2.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Egypt | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 6,059 | 2.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Azerbaijan | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 5,146 | 1.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Romania | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 2,306 | 0.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Serbia | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 1,893 | 0.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria: crude origin not reported | Bulgaria (own refineries) | 250,582 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Kuwait: no crude data | Kuwait | 26,918 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Egypt: no crude data | Egypt | 6,059 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Azerbaijan: no crude data | Azerbaijan | 5,146 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Iraq | Greece | 2,604 | 39.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: no crude data | Serbia | 1,893 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Kazakhstan | Greece | 1,342 | 20.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Romania | 1,220 | 52.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Greece | 1,085 | 16.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Greece | 581 | 8.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Azerbaijan | Greece | 365 | 5.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Romania | 319 | 13.8% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Norway | Greece | 297 | 4.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Romania | 273 | 11.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Egypt | Greece | 185 | 2.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Romania | 176 | 7.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Romania | 171 | 7.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Azerbaijan | Romania | 146 | 6.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Greece | 146 | 2.2% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
Source & method
Source Period 2025-10 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-10 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Bulgaria’s supply of road diesel in 2025-10, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2025-10 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-08 to 2025-10.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Bulgaria: crude origin not reported (250,582 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Kuwait: no crude data (26,918 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Egypt: no crude data (6,059 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Azerbaijan: no crude data (5,146 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: no crude data (1,893 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (319 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (146 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.