Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In September 2025, Croatia's road diesel supply was 279 kt: 39% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Italy (30%), Slovenia (20%) and Switzerland (6%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Libya (25%), Azerbaijan (12%) and Kazakhstan (7%), and 40% cannot be traced.
Country
Libya70 kt (est. 25%)Azerbaijan34 kt (est. 12%)Kazakhstan20 kt (est. 7%)United States7.6 kt (est. 3%)Saudi Arabia7.0 kt (est. 3%)Iraq6.1 kt (est. 2%)Nigeria5.9 kt (est. 2%)Other crude origins15 kt (est. 6%)Slovenia: no refinery56 kt (20%)Croatia: crude not from imports32 kt (11%)Switzerland: no crude data18 kt (6%)Italy: crude not from imports6.9 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.4 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.2 kt (<1%)Croatia (own refineries)109 kt (39%)Italy84 kt (30%)Slovenia56 kt (20%)Switzerland18 kt (6%)Greece9.1 kt (3%)Hungary2.5 kt (<1%)Croatia: road diesel supply279 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Croatia (own refineries)
- Italy
- Slovenia
- Switzerland
- Greece
- Hungary
- Libya70 kt (est. 25%)
- Azerbaijan34 kt (est. 12%)
- Kazakhstan20 kt (est. 7%)
- United States7.6 kt (est. 3%)
- Saudi Arabia7.0 kt (est. 3%)
- Iraq6.1 kt (est. 2%)
- Nigeria5.9 kt (est. 2%)
- Other crude origins15 kt (est. 6%)
- Slovenia: no refinery56 kt (20%)
- Croatia: crude not from imports32 kt (11%)
- Switzerland: no crude data18 kt (6%)
- Italy: crude not from imports6.9 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.4 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.2 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Sep 2025)
6.1 thousand tonnes
est. 2% of Croatia's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported6.1 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Greece3.1 kt (est. 51%)
- Italy3.0 kt (est. 49%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia (own refineries) | Croatia: road diesel supply | 109,200 | 39.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Italy | Croatia: road diesel supply | 84,300 | 30.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Slovenia | Croatia: road diesel supply | 55,500 | 19.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Switzerland | Croatia: road diesel supply | 18,000 | 6.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Greece | Croatia: road diesel supply | 9,100 | 3.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Hungary | Croatia: road diesel supply | 2,500 | 0.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia: no refinery | Slovenia | 55,500 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| Libya | Croatia (own refineries) | 48,260 | 44.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Croatia's road diesel to Croatia split by Croatia's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Croatia: crude not from imports | Croatia (own refineries) | 31,777 | 29.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Azerbaijan | Croatia (own refineries) | 20,719 | 19.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Croatia's road diesel to Croatia split by Croatia's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Italy | 20,251 | 24.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Switzerland: no crude data | Switzerland | 18,000 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Azerbaijan | Italy | 12,734 | 15.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Italy | 12,732 | 15.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Italy | 8,974 | 10.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Croatia (own refineries) | 8,444 | 7.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Croatia's road diesel to Croatia split by Croatia's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Italy | 7,607 | 9.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Italy: crude not from imports | Italy | 6,895 | 8.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Saudi Arabia | Italy | 6,222 | 7.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Italy | 5,881 | 7.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Greece | 3,147 | 34.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Croatia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Italy | 3,001 | 3.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Greece | 2,048 | 22.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Croatia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Hungary | 1,788 | 71.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Croatia split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Greece | 1,498 | 16.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Croatia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Greece | 947 | 10.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Croatia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Greece | 799 | 8.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Croatia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Azerbaijan | Greece | 418 | 4.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Croatia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Hungary | 372 | 14.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Croatia split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Hungary | 341 | 13.6% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Greece | 223 | 2.4% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Greece | 22 | 0.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
Source & method
Source Period 2025-09 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-09 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Croatia’s supply of road diesel in 2025-09, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Month: 2025-09 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-07 to 2025-09.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Slovenia: no refinery (55,500 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Croatia: crude not from imports (31,777 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Switzerland: no crude data (18,000 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Italy: crude not from imports (6,895 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (362 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (223 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.