Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In August 2023, Croatia's road diesel supply was 286 kt: 46% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Italy (32%) and Slovenia (22%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Azerbaijan (44%), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (7%) and Libya (6%), and 25% cannot be traced.
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Croatia (own refineries)
- Italy
- Slovenia
- Hungary
- Azerbaijan126 kt (est. 44%)
- Democratic Republic of the Congo20 kt (est. 7%)
- Libya18 kt (est. 6%)
- United States13 kt (est. 5%)
- Kazakhstan8.7 kt (est. 3%)
- Iraq6.9 kt (est. 2%)
- Saudi Arabia5.1 kt (est. 2%)
- Other crude origins16 kt (est. 6%)
- Slovenia: no refinery63 kt (22%)
- Croatia: crude not from imports4.4 kt (2%)
- Italy: crude not from imports4.0 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported1.6 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Aug 2023)
17.5 thousand tonnes
est. 6% of Croatia's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported18 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Italy18 kt (est. 100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia (own refineries) | Croatia: road diesel supply | 131,949 | 46.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Italy | Croatia: road diesel supply | 91,399 | 31.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Slovenia | Croatia: road diesel supply | 62,798 | 21.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azerbaijan | Croatia (own refineries) | 107,473 | 81.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Croatia's road diesel to Croatia split by Croatia's crude-import mix over 2023-06 to 2023-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Slovenia: no refinery | Slovenia | 62,798 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | Croatia (own refineries) | 20,065 | 15.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Croatia's road diesel to Croatia split by Croatia's crude-import mix over 2023-06 to 2023-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Azerbaijan | Italy | 18,159 | 19.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-06 to 2023-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Italy | 17,504 | 19.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-06 to 2023-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Italy | 16,058 | 17.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-06 to 2023-08. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Italy | 13,320 | 14.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-06 to 2023-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Italy | 8,704 | 9.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-06 to 2023-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Italy | 6,941 | 7.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-06 to 2023-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Italy | 5,136 | 5.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-06 to 2023-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Croatia: crude not from imports | Croatia (own refineries) | 4,411 | 3.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Italy: crude not from imports | Italy | 3,990 | 4.4% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Italy | 1,589 | 1.7% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Other crude origins | Hungary | 6 | 79.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Croatia split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2023-06 to 2023-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Hungary | 1 | 16.0% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Kazakhstan | Hungary | 0 | 4.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Croatia split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2023-06 to 2023-08. Confidence: medium. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2023-08 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Croatia’s supply of road diesel in 2023-08, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Month: 2023-08 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2023-06 to 2023-08.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Slovenia: no refinery (62,798 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Croatia: crude not from imports (4,411 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Italy: crude not from imports (3,990 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (1,589 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (1 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.