Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In March 2026, Croatia's road diesel supply was 329 kt: 12% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Italy (51%), Slovenia (29%) and Greece (8%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Libya (21%), Azerbaijan (10%) and Kazakhstan (8%), and 34% cannot be traced.
Country
Libya68 kt (est. 21%)Azerbaijan34 kt (est. 10%)Kazakhstan25 kt (est. 8%)Iraq20 kt (est. 6%)Saudi Arabia18 kt (est. 6%)United States12 kt (est. 4%)Norway6.0 kt (est. 2%)Other crude origins33 kt (est. 10%)Slovenia: no refinery96 kt (29%)Italy: crude not from imports11 kt (3%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports1.9 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported1.7 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: no crude data0.1 kt (<1%)Croatia (own refineries)38 kt (12%)Italy167 kt (51%)Slovenia96 kt (29%)Greece27 kt (8%)Serbia0.1 kt (<1%)Croatia: road diesel supply329 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Italy
- Slovenia
- Croatia (own refineries)
- Greece
- Serbia
- Libya68 kt (est. 21%)
- Azerbaijan34 kt (est. 10%)
- Kazakhstan25 kt (est. 8%)
- Iraq20 kt (est. 6%)
- Saudi Arabia18 kt (est. 6%)
- United States12 kt (est. 4%)
- Norway6.0 kt (est. 2%)
- Other crude origins33 kt (est. 10%)
- Slovenia: no refinery96 kt (29%)
- Italy: crude not from imports11 kt (3%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports1.9 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported1.7 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: no crude data0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Mar 2026)
96.3 thousand tonnes
29% of Croatia's road diesel supply
Unknown
Last shipped from
- Slovenia96 kt (100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | Croatia: road diesel supply | 167,000 | 50.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Slovenia | Croatia: road diesel supply | 96,300 | 29.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Croatia (own refineries) | Croatia: road diesel supply | 38,100 | 11.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Greece | Croatia: road diesel supply | 27,100 | 8.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia: no refinery | Slovenia | 96,300 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| Libya | Italy | 45,309 | 27.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Italy | 27,379 | 16.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Azerbaijan | Italy | 23,808 | 14.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Croatia (own refineries) | 17,991 | 47.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Croatia's road diesel to Croatia split by Croatia's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Italy | 16,618 | 10.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Italy | 15,202 | 9.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Italy | 12,326 | 7.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Italy: crude not from imports | Italy | 11,083 | 6.6% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Iraq | Italy | 10,285 | 6.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Greece | 10,123 | 37.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Croatia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Azerbaijan | Croatia (own refineries) | 9,145 | 24.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Croatia's road diesel to Croatia split by Croatia's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Greece | 4,742 | 17.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Croatia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Croatia (own refineries) | 4,582 | 12.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Croatia's road diesel to Croatia split by Croatia's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Croatia (own refineries) | 4,455 | 11.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Croatia's road diesel to Croatia split by Croatia's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Greece | 4,249 | 15.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Croatia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Italy | 3,317 | 2.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Greece | 2,963 | 10.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Croatia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Greece | 2,688 | 9.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Croatia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Croatia (own refineries) | 1,927 | 5.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Italy | 1,672 | 1.0% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Azerbaijan | Greece | 1,440 | 5.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Croatia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Greece | 896 | 3.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Croatia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: no crude data | Serbia | 100 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2026-03 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2026-03 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Croatia’s supply of road diesel in 2026-03, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Month: 2026-03 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2026-01 to 2026-03.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Slovenia: no refinery (96,300 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Italy: crude not from imports (11,083 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (1,927 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (1,672 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: no crude data (100 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.