Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In December 2025, Croatia's road diesel supply was 312 kt: 38% from its own refineries, with imports from Italy (34%), Slovenia (19%) and Greece (10%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Azerbaijan (17%), Libya (17%) and Kazakhstan (12%), and 30% cannot be traced.
Country
Azerbaijan54 kt (est. 17%)Libya52 kt (est. 17%)Kazakhstan37 kt (est. 12%)Iraq22 kt (est. 7%)United States13 kt (est. 4%)Côte d’Ivoire9.9 kt (est. 3%)Guyana5.8 kt (est. 2%)Other crude origins25 kt (est. 8%)Slovenia: no refinery59 kt (19%)Croatia: crude not from imports21 kt (7%)Italy: crude not from imports12 kt (4%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported1.7 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.8 kt (<1%)Croatia (own refineries)117 kt (38%)Italy106 kt (34%)Slovenia59 kt (19%)Greece30 kt (10%)Croatia: road diesel supply312 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Croatia (own refineries)
- Italy
- Slovenia
- Greece
- Azerbaijan54 kt (est. 17%)
- Libya52 kt (est. 17%)
- Kazakhstan37 kt (est. 12%)
- Iraq22 kt (est. 7%)
- United States13 kt (est. 4%)
- Côte d’Ivoire9.9 kt (est. 3%)
- Guyana5.8 kt (est. 2%)
- Other crude origins25 kt (est. 8%)
- Slovenia: no refinery59 kt (19%)
- Croatia: crude not from imports21 kt (7%)
- Italy: crude not from imports12 kt (4%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported1.7 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.8 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Dec 2025)
12.5 thousand tonnes
est. 4% of Croatia's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported13 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Italy13 kt (est. 100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia (own refineries) | Croatia: road diesel supply | 117,100 | 37.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Italy | Croatia: road diesel supply | 106,000 | 34.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Slovenia | Croatia: road diesel supply | 58,500 | 18.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Greece | Croatia: road diesel supply | 29,900 | 9.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia: no refinery | Slovenia | 58,500 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| Azerbaijan | Croatia (own refineries) | 38,224 | 32.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Croatia's road diesel to Croatia split by Croatia's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Italy | 24,448 | 23.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Croatia (own refineries) | 22,889 | 19.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Croatia's road diesel to Croatia split by Croatia's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Italy | 21,591 | 20.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Croatia: crude not from imports | Croatia (own refineries) | 20,534 | 17.5% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Kazakhstan | Croatia (own refineries) | 19,773 | 16.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Croatia's road diesel to Croatia split by Croatia's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Azerbaijan | Italy | 14,653 | 13.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Greece | 12,709 | 42.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Croatia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Italy | 12,542 | 11.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Italy: crude not from imports | Italy | 12,211 | 11.5% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Kazakhstan | Italy | 10,039 | 9.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Côte d’Ivoire | Croatia (own refineries) | 9,908 | 8.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Croatia's road diesel to Croatia split by Croatia's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Italy | 8,836 | 8.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Croatia split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Greece | 7,123 | 23.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Croatia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Croatia (own refineries) | 5,772 | 4.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Croatia's road diesel to Croatia split by Croatia's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Greece | 4,863 | 16.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Croatia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Greece | 3,358 | 11.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Croatia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Italy | 1,681 | 1.6% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Azerbaijan | Greece | 1,010 | 3.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Croatia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Greece | 838 | 2.8% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
Source & method
Source Period 2025-12 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-12 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Croatia’s supply of road diesel in 2025-12, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Month: 2025-12 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-10 to 2025-12.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Slovenia: no refinery (58,500 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Croatia: crude not from imports (20,534 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Italy: crude not from imports (12,211 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (1,681 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (838 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.