Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In September 2024, Estonia's road diesel supply was 38 kt, all of it imported, from Lithuania (45%), Finland (37%) and Latvia (18%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (37%), Saudi Arabia (17%) and the United Kingdom (10%), and 22% cannot be traced.
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Crude origin (estimate)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Sep 2024)
600 tonnes
est. 2% of Estonia's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported0.6 kt estimated
Inferred · mediumEstimated
Last shipped from
- Finland0.6 kt (est. 100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Estonia: road diesel supply | 17,000 | 44.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Estonia: road diesel supply | 14,000 | 36.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Latvia | Estonia: road diesel supply | 7,000 | 18.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Finland | 9,256 | 66.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Latvia: no refinery | Latvia | 7,000 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 6,396 | 37.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 4,815 | 28.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 3,282 | 19.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Finland | 1,958 | 14.0% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United States | Lithuania | 1,329 | 7.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Finland: crude origin not reported | Finland | 807 | 5.8% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Guyana | Finland | 778 | 5.6% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 606 | 3.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 601 | 4.3% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Denmark | Finland | 600 | 4.3% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Lithuania: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 572 | 3.4% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
Source & method
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2024-09 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Estonia’s supply of road diesel in 2024-09, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2024-09 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2024-07 to 2024-09.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Latvia: no refinery (7,000 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Finland: crude origin not reported (807 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Lithuania: crude not from imports (572 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.