Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In November 2024, Estonia's road diesel supply was 60 kt, all of it imported, from Finland (53%), Denmark (30%) and Lithuania (17%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (45%), the United States (23%) and the United Kingdom (12%), and 7% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway27 kt (est. 45%)United States14 kt (est. 23%)United Kingdom7.0 kt (est. 12%)Saudi Arabia3.3 kt (est. 6%)Guyana1.6 kt (est. 3%)Denmark1.2 kt (est. 2%)Libya0.9 kt (est. 2%)Algeria0.4 kt (est. <1%)Denmark: crude not from imports4.5 kt (7%)Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Finland32 kt (53%)Denmark18 kt (30%)Lithuania10 kt (17%)Estonia: road diesel supply60 kt (100%)
Tap a country to follow its flows. Tap it again, or use the close button, to clear.
Crude origin (estimate)
- Norway27 kt (est. 45%)
- United States14 kt (est. 23%)
- United Kingdom7.0 kt (est. 12%)
- Saudi Arabia3.3 kt (est. 6%)
- Guyana1.6 kt (est. 3%)
- Denmark1.2 kt (est. 2%)
- Libya0.9 kt (est. 2%)
- Algeria0.4 kt (est. <1%)
- Denmark: crude not from imports4.5 kt (7%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Nov 2024)
1.6 thousand tonnes
est. 3% of Estonia's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported1.6 kt estimated
Inferred · mediumEstimated
Last shipped from
- Finland1.6 kt (est. 100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finland | Estonia: road diesel supply | 32,000 | 53.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Denmark | Estonia: road diesel supply | 18,000 | 30.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Lithuania | Estonia: road diesel supply | 10,000 | 16.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Finland | 19,536 | 61.0% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United States | Denmark | 9,424 | 52.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Estonia split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 5,502 | 17.2% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Denmark: crude not from imports | Denmark | 4,451 | 24.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 4,270 | 42.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Finland | 4,116 | 12.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 3,324 | 33.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Denmark | 3,184 | 17.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Estonia split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Finland | 1,606 | 5.0% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 1,489 | 14.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark | Finland | 1,239 | 3.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Libya | Denmark | 941 | 5.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Estonia split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Lithuania | 481 | 4.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 406 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-09 to 2024-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 29 | 0.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
Source & method
Source Period 2024-11 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2024-11 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Estonia’s supply of road diesel in 2024-11, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2024-11 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2024-09 to 2024-11.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Denmark: crude not from imports (4,451 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (29 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.