Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In January 2025, Estonia's road diesel supply was 58 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Lithuania (82%) and Finland (14%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Saudi Arabia (51%), Norway (32%) and Algeria (13%), and 1% cannot be traced.
Country
Saudi Arabia29 kt (est. 51%)Norway18 kt (est. 32%)Algeria7.4 kt (est. 13%)United Kingdom0.8 kt (est. 1%)United States0.7 kt (est. 1%)Brazil0.2 kt (est. <1%)Iraq0.2 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins0.4 kt (est. <1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.3 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.2 kt (<1%)Lithuania48 kt (82%)Finland8.0 kt (14%)Netherlands2.5 kt (4%)Estonia: road diesel supply58 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Lithuania
- Finland
- Netherlands
- Saudi Arabia29 kt (est. 51%)
- Norway18 kt (est. 32%)
- Algeria7.4 kt (est. 13%)
- United Kingdom0.8 kt (est. 1%)
- United States0.7 kt (est. 1%)
- Brazil0.2 kt (est. <1%)
- Iraq0.2 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins0.4 kt (est. <1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.3 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.2 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Jan 2025)
223 tonnes
est. <1% of Estonia's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported0.2 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Netherlands0.2 kt (est. 100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Estonia: road diesel supply | 47,500 | 81.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Estonia: road diesel supply | 8,000 | 13.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Estonia: road diesel supply | 2,500 | 4.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 29,290 | 61.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-11 to 2025-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 10,813 | 22.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-11 to 2025-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 7,397 | 15.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-11 to 2025-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 7,230 | 90.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-11 to 2025-01. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 678 | 27.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-11 to 2025-01. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 594 | 7.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-11 to 2025-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 434 | 17.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-11 to 2025-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 386 | 15.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-11 to 2025-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Brazil | Netherlands | 249 | 10.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-11 to 2025-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Netherlands | 223 | 8.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-11 to 2025-01. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 202 | 8.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-11 to 2025-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Finland | 176 | 2.2% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Netherlands | 150 | 6.0% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 140 | 5.6% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Saudi Arabia | Netherlands | 36 | 1.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-11 to 2025-01. Confidence: medium. |
Source & method
Source Period 2025-01 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-01 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Estonia’s supply of road diesel in 2025-01, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2025-01 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2024-11 to 2025-01.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (317 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (150 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.