Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In March 2025, Estonia's road diesel supply was 64 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Lithuania (67%) and Finland (28%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Saudi Arabia (43%), Norway (38%) and the United Kingdom (10%), and 3% cannot be traced.
Country
Saudi Arabia27 kt (est. 43%)Norway24 kt (est. 38%)United Kingdom6.2 kt (est. 10%)United States2.0 kt (est. 3%)Algeria1.5 kt (est. 2%)Kazakhstan0.4 kt (est. <1%)Iraq0.2 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins0.6 kt (est. <1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.7 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.5 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: no refinery0.5 kt (<1%)Lithuania43 kt (67%)Finland18 kt (28%)Netherlands1.5 kt (2%)Belgium1.0 kt (2%)Latvia0.5 kt (<1%)Estonia: road diesel supply64 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Lithuania
- Finland
- Netherlands
- Belgium
- Latvia
- Saudi Arabia27 kt (est. 43%)
- Norway24 kt (est. 38%)
- United Kingdom6.2 kt (est. 10%)
- United States2.0 kt (est. 3%)
- Algeria1.5 kt (est. 2%)
- Kazakhstan0.4 kt (est. <1%)
- Iraq0.2 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins0.6 kt (est. <1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.7 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.5 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: no refinery0.5 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Mar 2025)
354 tonnes
est. <1% of Estonia's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported0.4 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Netherlands0.2 kt (est. 62%)
- Belgium0.1 kt (est. 38%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Estonia: road diesel supply | 43,000 | 67.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Estonia: road diesel supply | 18,000 | 28.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Estonia: road diesel supply | 1,500 | 2.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Belgium | Estonia: road diesel supply | 1,000 | 1.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Latvia | Estonia: road diesel supply | 500 | 0.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 27,286 | 63.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 14,717 | 81.8% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Norway | Lithuania | 8,814 | 20.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 5,281 | 12.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Finland | 1,541 | 8.6% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 1,512 | 3.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 735 | 4.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Finland | 599 | 3.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: no refinery | Latvia | 500 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Finland | 408 | 2.3% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 330 | 33.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 310 | 20.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 286 | 19.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 266 | 17.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 220 | 14.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Belgium | 212 | 21.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Belgium | 164 | 16.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 157 | 10.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Belgium | 134 | 13.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Netherlands | 118 | 7.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 107 | 0.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 95 | 6.3% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Iraq | Belgium | 65 | 6.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Belgium | 61 | 6.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Netherlands | 28 | 1.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Belgium | 20 | 2.0% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Netherlands | 20 | 1.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Saudi Arabia | Belgium | 14 | 1.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2025-03 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-03 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Estonia’s supply of road diesel in 2025-03, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2025-03 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-01 to 2025-03.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (726 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (523 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: no refinery (500 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.