Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In May 2025, Estonia's road diesel supply was 62 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Lithuania (73%), Latvia (18%) and Finland (6%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Saudi Arabia (33%), Norway (28%) and the United Kingdom (10%), and 18% cannot be traced.
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Crude origin (estimate)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Road diesel supplied (May 2025)
11.0 thousand tonnes
18% of Estonia's road diesel supply
Official
Crude behind it (estimate)
- Latvia: no refinery11 kt (100%)
Source: Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis); Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Estonia: road diesel supply | 45,000 | 72.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Latvia | Estonia: road diesel supply | 11,000 | 17.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Estonia: road diesel supply | 4,000 | 6.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Sweden | Estonia: road diesel supply | 2,000 | 3.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 20,311 | 45.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 13,323 | 29.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Latvia: no refinery | Latvia | 11,000 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 5,799 | 12.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 3,439 | 7.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 3,225 | 80.6% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United States | Lithuania | 1,850 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Sweden | 1,044 | 52.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Estonia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Finland | 634 | 15.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United Kingdom | Sweden | 290 | 14.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Estonia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 278 | 0.6% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States | Sweden | 258 | 12.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Estonia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Sweden | 226 | 11.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Estonia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Sweden | 168 | 8.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Estonia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark | Finland | 141 | 3.5% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Denmark | Sweden | 14 | 0.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Estonia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-05 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Estonia’s supply of road diesel in 2025-05, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2025-05 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-03 to 2025-05.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Latvia: no refinery (11,000 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (278 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.