Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In October 2025, Estonia's road diesel supply was 70 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Lithuania (64%) and the United States (27%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Saudi Arabia (25%), Norway (22%) and the United Kingdom (12%), and 29% cannot be traced.
Country
Saudi Arabia17 kt (est. 25%)Norway15 kt (est. 22%)United Kingdom8.1 kt (est. 12%)Algeria7.2 kt (est. 10%)United States0.5 kt (est. <1%)Kazakhstan0.3 kt (est. <1%)Denmark0.2 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins0.7 kt (est. 1%)United States: no crude data19 kt (27%)Latvia: no refinery1.0 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.1 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.1 kt (<1%)Lithuania45 kt (64%)United States19 kt (27%)Finland3.0 kt (4%)Netherlands2.0 kt (3%)Latvia1.0 kt (1%)Estonia: road diesel supply70 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Lithuania
- United States
- Finland
- Netherlands
- Latvia
- Saudi Arabia17 kt (est. 25%)
- Norway15 kt (est. 22%)
- United Kingdom8.1 kt (est. 12%)
- Algeria7.2 kt (est. 10%)
- United States0.5 kt (est. <1%)
- Kazakhstan0.3 kt (est. <1%)
- Denmark0.2 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins0.7 kt (est. 1%)
- United States: no crude data19 kt (27%)
- Latvia: no refinery1.0 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.1 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Road diesel supplied (Oct 2025)
2.0 thousand tonnes
3% of Estonia's road diesel supply
Official
Crude behind it (estimate)
- Other crude origins0.6 kt (est. 28%)
- Norway0.4 kt (est. 22%)
- United States0.4 kt (est. 21%)
and 4 more in the table above
Source: Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis); Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Estonia: road diesel supply | 45,000 | 64.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Estonia: road diesel supply | 19,000 | 27.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Estonia: road diesel supply | 3,000 | 4.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Estonia: road diesel supply | 2,000 | 2.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Latvia | Estonia: road diesel supply | 1,000 | 1.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States: no crude data | United States | 19,000 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 17,257 | 38.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 12,621 | 28.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 7,743 | 17.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 7,236 | 16.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 2,313 | 77.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Latvia: no refinery | Latvia | 1,000 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 563 | 28.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 438 | 21.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 418 | 20.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 281 | 14.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 229 | 7.6% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Denmark | Finland | 183 | 6.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 162 | 8.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Finland | 148 | 4.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 144 | 0.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States | Finland | 127 | 4.2% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 116 | 5.8% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Saudi Arabia | Netherlands | 23 | 1.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
Source & method
Source Period 2025-10 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-10 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Estonia’s supply of road diesel in 2025-10, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2025-10 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-08 to 2025-10.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- United States: no crude data (19,000 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Latvia: no refinery (1,000 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (144 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (116 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.