Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In December 2023, Estonia's road diesel supply was 82 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Lithuania (72%) and Finland (21%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (44%), Saudi Arabia (23%) and the United States (16%), and 5% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway36 kt (est. 44%)Saudi Arabia19 kt (est. 23%)United States13 kt (est. 16%)United Kingdom8.4 kt (est. 10%)Brazil0.7 kt (est. <1%)Nigeria0.2 kt (est. <1%)Iraq0.2 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins0.4 kt (est. <1%)Kazakhstan: no crude data2.0 kt (2%)Latvia: no refinery1.0 kt (1%)United States: no crude data1.0 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.2 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.1 kt (<1%)Lithuania59 kt (72%)Finland17 kt (21%)Kazakhstan2.0 kt (2%)Belgium1.0 kt (1%)Latvia1.0 kt (1%)Netherlands1.0 kt (1%)United States1.0 kt (1%)Estonia: road diesel supply82 kt (100%)
Tap a country to follow its flows. Tap it again, or use the close button, to clear.
Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Lithuania
- Finland
- Kazakhstan
- Belgium
- Latvia
- United States
- Netherlands
- Norway36 kt (est. 44%)
- Saudi Arabia19 kt (est. 23%)
- United States13 kt (est. 16%)
- United Kingdom8.4 kt (est. 10%)
- Brazil0.7 kt (est. <1%)
- Nigeria0.2 kt (est. <1%)
- Iraq0.2 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins0.4 kt (est. <1%)
- Kazakhstan: no crude data2.0 kt (2%)
- Latvia: no refinery1.0 kt (1%)
- United States: no crude data1.0 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.2 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Dec 2023)
18.7 thousand tonnes
est. 23% of Estonia's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported19 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Lithuania19 kt (est. 100%)
- Netherlandsless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)
- Belgiumless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Estonia: road diesel supply | 59,000 | 72.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Estonia: road diesel supply | 17,000 | 20.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Kazakhstan | Estonia: road diesel supply | 2,000 | 2.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Belgium | Estonia: road diesel supply | 1,000 | 1.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Latvia | Estonia: road diesel supply | 1,000 | 1.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Estonia: road diesel supply | 1,000 | 1.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Estonia: road diesel supply | 1,000 | 1.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Lithuania | 20,612 | 34.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 18,691 | 31.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 15,081 | 88.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Lithuania | 12,088 | 20.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 7,586 | 12.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan: no crude data | Kazakhstan | 2,000 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Latvia: no refinery | Latvia | 1,000 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 1,000 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 689 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Finland | 675 | 4.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Brazil | Finland | 512 | 3.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 275 | 27.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 270 | 27.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Belgium | 181 | 18.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Belgium | 125 | 12.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Belgium | 120 | 12.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 116 | 11.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Netherlands | 110 | 11.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Netherlands | 108 | 10.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 107 | 10.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Brazil | Netherlands | 103 | 10.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 92 | 9.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Belgium | 89 | 8.9% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United Kingdom | Belgium | 82 | 8.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Belgium | 63 | 6.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 63 | 6.3% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Brazil | Belgium | 51 | 5.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Finland | 43 | 0.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Saudi Arabia | Netherlands | 31 | 3.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Belgium | 13 | 1.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Belgium | 3 | 0.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2023-12 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2023-12 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Estonia’s supply of road diesel in 2023-12, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Month: 2023-12 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2023-10 to 2023-12.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Kazakhstan: no crude data (2,000 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Latvia: no refinery (1,000 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- United States: no crude data (1,000 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (152 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (69 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.