Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In February 2025, Estonia's road diesel supply was 56 kt, all of it imported, from Lithuania (73%), Finland (20%) and the Netherlands (7%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Saudi Arabia (46%), Norway (32%) and Algeria (11%), and 2% cannot be traced.
Country
Saudi Arabia26 kt (est. 46%)Norway18 kt (est. 32%)Algeria6.2 kt (est. 11%)United Kingdom2.6 kt (est. 5%)United States1.0 kt (est. 2%)Kazakhstan0.5 kt (est. <1%)Brazil0.3 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins0.7 kt (est. 1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.5 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.4 kt (<1%)Lithuania41 kt (73%)Finland11 kt (20%)Netherlands4.0 kt (7%)Estonia: road diesel supply56 kt (100%)
Tap a country to follow its flows. Tap it again, or use the close button, to clear.
Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Lithuania
- Finland
- Netherlands
- Saudi Arabia26 kt (est. 46%)
- Norway18 kt (est. 32%)
- Algeria6.2 kt (est. 11%)
- United Kingdom2.6 kt (est. 5%)
- United States1.0 kt (est. 2%)
- Kazakhstan0.5 kt (est. <1%)
- Brazil0.3 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins0.7 kt (est. 1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.5 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.4 kt (<1%)
Where the fuel was refined
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Feb 2025)
25.9 thousand tonnes
est. 46% of Estonia's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported26 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Refined in
- Lithuania26 kt (est. 100%)
- Netherlands0.1 kt (est. <1%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Estonia: road diesel supply | 41,000 | 73.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Finland | Estonia: road diesel supply | 11,000 | 19.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Estonia: road diesel supply | 4,000 | 7.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 25,858 | 63.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 10,181 | 92.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 6,924 | 16.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 6,227 | 15.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 1,673 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 1,048 | 26.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 701 | 17.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 691 | 17.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 466 | 11.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 447 | 11.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 445 | 4.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Brazil | Netherlands | 318 | 7.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 317 | 0.8% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Finland | 247 | 2.2% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 245 | 6.1% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Finland | 126 | 1.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Saudi Arabia | Netherlands | 79 | 2.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Netherlands | 5 | 0.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
Source & method
Source Period 2025-02 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-02 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the countries whose refineries made it. Right: Estonia’s supply of road diesel in 2025-02, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2025-02 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2024-12 to 2025-02.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (493 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (448 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only; fuel re-exported through a supplier is not followed further.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.