Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In February 2026, Estonia's road diesel supply was 64 kt, all of it imported, from Lithuania (63%), Denmark (24%) and Finland (12%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (38%), Saudi Arabia (31%) and the United Kingdom (13%), and 7% cannot be traced.
Tap a country to follow its flows. Tap it again, or use the close button, to clear.
Crude origin (estimate)
Where the fuel was refined
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Feb 2026)
19.8 thousand tonnes
est. 31% of Estonia's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported20 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Refined in
- Lithuania20 kt (est. 100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Estonia: road diesel supply | 40,500 | 63.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Denmark | Estonia: road diesel supply | 15,500 | 24.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Finland | Estonia: road diesel supply | 8,000 | 12.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 19,755 | 48.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 11,219 | 27.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 7,820 | 19.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Denmark | 6,447 | 41.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Estonia split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 6,347 | 79.3% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Denmark: crude not from imports | Denmark | 4,454 | 28.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States | Denmark | 3,490 | 22.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Estonia split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 1,517 | 3.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Netherlands | Denmark | 832 | 5.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Estonia split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark | Finland | 728 | 9.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United States | Finland | 509 | 6.4% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Senegal | Finland | 416 | 5.2% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United Kingdom | Denmark | 277 | 1.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Estonia split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 188 | 0.5% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2026-02 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the countries whose refineries made it. Right: Estonia’s supply of road diesel in 2026-02, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2026-02 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-12 to 2026-02.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Denmark: crude not from imports (4,454 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (188 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only; fuel re-exported through a supplier is not followed further.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.