Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In September 2023, Estonia's road diesel supply was 68 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Lithuania (56%) and Finland (40%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (38%), Saudi Arabia (21%) and the United States (20%), and 14% cannot be traced.
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Crude origin (estimate)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Sep 2023)
1.0 thousand tonnes
1% of Estonia's road diesel supply
Unknown
Last shipped from
- Finland1.0 kt (100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Estonia: road diesel supply | 38,000 | 55.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Estonia: road diesel supply | 27,000 | 39.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Latvia | Estonia: road diesel supply | 3,000 | 4.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Finland | 16,655 | 61.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 14,208 | 37.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Lithuania | 10,112 | 26.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 9,206 | 24.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Finland: crude not from imports | Finland | 3,968 | 14.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States | Finland | 3,239 | 12.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Latvia: no refinery | Latvia | 3,000 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 2,130 | 7.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Lithuania: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 1,769 | 4.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 1,459 | 3.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 1,246 | 3.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Finland: crude origin not reported | Finland | 1,009 | 3.7% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
Source & method
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2023-09 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Estonia’s supply of road diesel in 2023-09, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Month: 2023-09 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2023-07 to 2023-09.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Finland: crude not from imports (3,968 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Latvia: no refinery (3,000 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Lithuania: crude not from imports (1,769 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Finland: crude origin not reported (1,009 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.