Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In November 2023, Estonia's road diesel supply was 70 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Lithuania (61%), Finland (19%) and the United States (14%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (37%), the United States (17%) and Saudi Arabia (16%), and 23% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway26 kt (est. 37%)United States12 kt (est. 17%)Saudi Arabia11 kt (est. 16%)United Kingdom4.2 kt (est. 6%)Brazil0.5 kt (est. <1%)Iraq0.1 kt (est. <1%)Nigeria0.1 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins0.1 kt (est. <1%)United States: no crude data10 kt (14%)Kazakhstan: no crude data2.0 kt (3%)Finland: crude not from imports1.4 kt (2%)Lithuania: crude not from imports1.4 kt (2%)Latvia: no refinery1.0 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reportedless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Lithuania43 kt (61%)Finland13 kt (19%)United States10 kt (14%)Kazakhstan2.0 kt (3%)Latvia1.0 kt (1%)Netherlands1.0 kt (1%)Estonia: road diesel supply70 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Lithuania
- Finland
- United States
- Kazakhstan
- Latvia
- Netherlands
- Norway26 kt (est. 37%)
- United States12 kt (est. 17%)
- Saudi Arabia11 kt (est. 16%)
- United Kingdom4.2 kt (est. 6%)
- Brazil0.5 kt (est. <1%)
- Iraq0.1 kt (est. <1%)
- Nigeria0.1 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins0.1 kt (est. <1%)
- United States: no crude data10 kt (14%)
- Kazakhstan: no crude data2.0 kt (3%)
- Finland: crude not from imports1.4 kt (2%)
- Lithuania: crude not from imports1.4 kt (2%)
- Latvia: no refinery1.0 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reportedless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Nov 2023)
4.2 thousand tonnes
est. 6% of Estonia's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported4.2 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Lithuania3.5 kt (est. 85%)
- Finland0.5 kt (est. 13%)
- Netherlands0.1 kt (est. 3%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Estonia: road diesel supply | 43,000 | 61.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Estonia: road diesel supply | 13,000 | 18.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Estonia: road diesel supply | 10,000 | 14.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Kazakhstan | Estonia: road diesel supply | 2,000 | 2.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Latvia | Estonia: road diesel supply | 1,000 | 1.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Estonia: road diesel supply | 1,000 | 1.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Lithuania | 16,503 | 38.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-09 to 2023-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 11,349 | 26.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-09 to 2023-11. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Lithuania | 10,223 | 23.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-09 to 2023-11. Confidence: medium. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 10,000 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Norway | Finland | 9,559 | 73.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-09 to 2023-11. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 3,545 | 8.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-09 to 2023-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan: no crude data | Kazakhstan | 2,000 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Finland: crude not from imports | Finland | 1,402 | 10.8% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Lithuania: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 1,380 | 3.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States | Finland | 1,110 | 8.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-09 to 2023-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Latvia: no refinery | Latvia | 1,000 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 533 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-09 to 2023-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Brazil | Finland | 396 | 3.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-09 to 2023-11. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 278 | 27.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-09 to 2023-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 128 | 12.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-09 to 2023-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Netherlands | 118 | 11.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-09 to 2023-11. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 115 | 11.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-09 to 2023-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 110 | 11.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-09 to 2023-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Netherlands | 109 | 10.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-09 to 2023-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Brazil | Netherlands | 81 | 8.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-09 to 2023-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 49 | 4.9% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Saudi Arabia | Netherlands | 13 | 1.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Estonia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-09 to 2023-11. Confidence: medium. |
Source & method
Source Period 2023-11 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2023-11 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Estonia’s supply of road diesel in 2023-11, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Month: 2023-11 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2023-09 to 2023-11.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- United States: no crude data (10,000 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Kazakhstan: no crude data (2,000 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Finland: crude not from imports (1,402 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Lithuania: crude not from imports (1,380 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Latvia: no refinery (1,000 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (49 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.