Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In May 2024, Estonia's road diesel supply was 72 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Lithuania (57%) and Belgium (42%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Saudi Arabia (32%), Norway (18%) and the United States (9%), and 7% cannot be traced.
Country
Saudi Arabia23 kt (est. 32%)Norway13 kt (est. 18%)United States6.4 kt (est. 9%)Algeria6.2 kt (est. 9%)United Kingdom5.4 kt (est. 8%)Kazakhstan4.4 kt (est. 6%)Nigeria1.8 kt (est. 3%)Other crude origins6.9 kt (est. 10%)Belgium: crude origin not reported3.5 kt (5%)United States: no crude data1.0 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.2 kt (<1%)Lithuania41 kt (57%)Belgium30 kt (42%)United States1.0 kt (1%)Estonia: road diesel supply72 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Lithuania
- Belgium
- United States
- Saudi Arabia23 kt (est. 32%)
- Norway13 kt (est. 18%)
- United States6.4 kt (est. 9%)
- Algeria6.2 kt (est. 9%)
- United Kingdom5.4 kt (est. 8%)
- Kazakhstan4.4 kt (est. 6%)
- Nigeria1.8 kt (est. 3%)
- Other crude origins6.9 kt (est. 10%)
- Belgium: crude origin not reported3.5 kt (5%)
- United States: no crude data1.0 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.2 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (May 2024)
5.4 thousand tonnes
est. 8% of Estonia's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported5.4 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Lithuania4.9 kt (est. 90%)
- Belgium0.5 kt (est. 10%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Estonia: road diesel supply | 41,000 | 56.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Belgium | Estonia: road diesel supply | 30,000 | 41.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Estonia: road diesel supply | 1,000 | 1.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 19,667 | 48.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 8,620 | 21.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 6,878 | 22.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 6,184 | 15.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 4,875 | 11.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Belgium | 4,760 | 15.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Belgium | 4,391 | 14.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Belgium | 4,311 | 14.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Belgium | 3,633 | 12.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Belgium: crude origin not reported | Belgium | 3,487 | 11.6% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Nigeria | Belgium | 1,805 | 6.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Lithuania | 1,653 | 4.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 1,000 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United Kingdom | Belgium | 540 | 1.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Belgium | 196 | 0.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
Source & method
Source Period 2024-05 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2024-05 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Estonia’s supply of road diesel in 2024-05, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2024-05 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2024-03 to 2024-05.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Belgium: crude origin not reported (3,487 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- United States: no crude data (1,000 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (196 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.