Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In July 2025, Estonia's road diesel supply was 62 kt, all of it imported, from Lithuania (58%) and Finland (42%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (53%), Saudi Arabia (17%) and the United Kingdom (9%), and 1% cannot be traced.
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Crude origin (estimate)
Where the fuel was refined
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Estonia: road diesel supply | 36,000 | 58.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Finland | Estonia: road diesel supply | 26,000 | 41.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Finland | 18,832 | 72.4% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Norway | Lithuania | 14,128 | 39.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 10,489 | 29.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 5,455 | 15.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 5,370 | 14.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Finland | 5,270 | 20.3% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Denmark | Finland | 1,897 | 7.3% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 558 | 1.6% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
Source & method
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-07 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the countries whose refineries made it. Right: Estonia’s supply of road diesel in 2025-07, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2025-07 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-05 to 2025-07.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (558 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only; fuel re-exported through a supplier is not followed further.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.