Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In January 2026, Estonia's road diesel supply was 46 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Lithuania (77%), Finland (11%) and Denmark (9%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Saudi Arabia (41%), Norway (28%) and the United Kingdom (18%), and 3% cannot be traced.
Country
Saudi Arabia19 kt (est. 41%)Norway13 kt (est. 28%)United Kingdom8.3 kt (est. 18%)United States1.8 kt (est. 4%)Algeria1.3 kt (est. 3%)Denmark0.3 kt (est. <1%)Senegal0.3 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins0.7 kt (est. 1%)Denmark: crude not from imports1.2 kt (3%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reportedless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Lithuania36 kt (77%)Finland5.0 kt (11%)Denmark4.0 kt (9%)Belgium1.5 kt (3%)Estonia: road diesel supply46 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Saudi Arabia19 kt (est. 41%)
- Norway13 kt (est. 28%)
- United Kingdom8.3 kt (est. 18%)
- United States1.8 kt (est. 4%)
- Algeria1.3 kt (est. 3%)
- Denmark0.3 kt (est. <1%)
- Senegal0.3 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins0.7 kt (est. 1%)
- Denmark: crude not from imports1.2 kt (3%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reportedless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Where the fuel was refined
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Estonia: road diesel supply | 35,500 | 77.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Finland | Estonia: road diesel supply | 5,000 | 10.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Denmark | Estonia: road diesel supply | 4,000 | 8.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Belgium | Estonia: road diesel supply | 1,500 | 3.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 19,052 | 53.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 8,083 | 22.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 7,066 | 19.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 4,016 | 80.3% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Norway | Denmark | 1,497 | 37.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Estonia split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Denmark | 1,326 | 33.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Estonia split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 1,299 | 3.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark: crude not from imports | Denmark | 1,175 | 29.4% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 659 | 43.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Belgium | 448 | 29.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark | Finland | 326 | 6.5% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United States | Belgium | 312 | 20.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Senegal | Finland | 277 | 5.5% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 196 | 3.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United States | Finland | 184 | 3.7% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United Kingdom | Belgium | 44 | 2.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Senegal | Belgium | 25 | 1.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark | Belgium | 13 | 0.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Estonia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
2 flows with a share under 0.1% are not listed here. They are still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2026-01 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceLowMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · low
Provenance
Inferred · lowLow- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2026-01 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · low
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the countries whose refineries made it. Right: Estonia’s supply of road diesel in 2026-01, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2026-01 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-11 to 2026-01.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Denmark: crude not from imports (1,175 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (2 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only; fuel re-exported through a supplier is not followed further.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.