Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In May 2026, Estonia's road diesel supply was 64 kt, all of it imported, from Lithuania (39%), Finland (38%) and Sweden (22%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (53%), Saudi Arabia (17%) and the United States (12%), and 1% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway34 kt (est. 53%)Saudi Arabia11 kt (est. 17%)United States7.9 kt (est. 12%)United Kingdom4.1 kt (est. 6%)Denmark3.2 kt (est. 5%)Guyana1.7 kt (est. 3%)Algeria0.9 kt (est. 1%)Other crude origins1.0 kt (est. 2%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.4 kt (<1%)Lithuania25 kt (39%)Finland25 kt (38%)Sweden14 kt (22%)Estonia: road diesel supply64 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
Where the fuel was refined
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Estonia: road diesel supply | 25,100 | 39.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Finland | Estonia: road diesel supply | 24,600 | 38.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Sweden | Estonia: road diesel supply | 14,300 | 22.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Finland | 18,444 | 75.0% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 10,950 | 43.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 8,028 | 32.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Sweden | 7,350 | 51.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Estonia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Sweden | 3,218 | 22.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Estonia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark | Finland | 3,172 | 12.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United States | Lithuania | 2,684 | 10.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 2,103 | 8.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Finland | 2,023 | 8.2% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United Kingdom | Sweden | 2,015 | 14.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Estonia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Sweden | 985 | 6.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Estonia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Finland | 961 | 3.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Estonia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 920 | 3.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Estonia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Sweden | 733 | 5.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Estonia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 415 | 1.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
Source & method
Source Period 2026-05 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2026-05 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the countries whose refineries made it. Right: Estonia’s supply of road diesel in 2026-05, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2026-05 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2026-03 to 2026-05.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (415 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only; fuel re-exported through a supplier is not followed further.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.