Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In October 2024, Finland's road diesel supply was 516 kt: 78% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Sweden (16%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (63%), the United States (12%) and the United Kingdom (10%), and 3% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway323 kt (est. 63%)United States63 kt (est. 12%)United Kingdom52 kt (est. 10%)Guyana22 kt (est. 4%)Denmark18 kt (est. 3%)Nigeria7.6 kt (est. 1%)Libya3.6 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins11 kt (est. 2%)Sweden: crude origin not reported11 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported3.3 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports1.9 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: no crude dataless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Finland (own refineries)404 kt (78%)Sweden82 kt (est. 16%)Netherlands17 kt (est. 3%)Belgium13 kt (est. 3%)Germanyless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)United Statesless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)Singaporeless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)Finland: road diesel supply516 kt (78%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Finland (own refineries)
- Sweden
- Netherlands
- Belgium
- Germany
- United States
- Singapore
- Norway323 kt (est. 63%)
- United States63 kt (est. 12%)
- United Kingdom52 kt (est. 10%)
- Guyana22 kt (est. 4%)
- Denmark18 kt (est. 3%)
- Nigeria7.6 kt (est. 1%)
- Libya3.6 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins11 kt (est. 2%)
- Sweden: crude origin not reported11 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported3.3 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports1.9 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: no crude dataless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Where the fuel was refined
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Oct 2024)
21.7 thousand tonnes
est. 4% of Finland's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported22 kt estimated
Inferred · mediumEstimated
Refined in
- Finland (own refineries)22 kt (est. 100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finland (own refineries) | Finland: road diesel supply | 404,000 | 78.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Sweden | Finland: road diesel supply | 81,996 | 15.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland reported no road diesel imports for the month but customs records show them with the quantities withheld; tonnes estimated from the published euro values (customs basis). |
| Netherlands | Finland: road diesel supply | 17,049 | 3.3% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland reported no road diesel imports for the month but customs records show them with the quantities withheld; tonnes estimated from the published euro values (customs basis). |
| Belgium | Finland: road diesel supply | 13,075 | 2.5% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland reported no road diesel imports for the month but customs records show them with the quantities withheld; tonnes estimated from the published euro values (customs basis). |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Finland (own refineries) | 266,341 | 65.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Finland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United States | Finland (own refineries) | 55,560 | 13.8% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Finland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Norway | Sweden | 50,835 | 62.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Finland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| United Kingdom | Finland (own refineries) | 43,689 | 10.8% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Finland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Guyana | Finland (own refineries) | 21,680 | 5.4% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Finland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Denmark | Finland (own refineries) | 16,730 | 4.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Finland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Sweden: crude origin not reported | Sweden | 11,009 | 13.4% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Nigeria | Sweden | 6,110 | 7.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Finland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 6,045 | 35.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Finland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| United Kingdom | Sweden | 5,912 | 7.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Finland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 4,615 | 35.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Finland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| United States | Netherlands | 3,912 | 22.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Finland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| Libya | Sweden | 3,196 | 3.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Finland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 3,055 | 17.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Finland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| Norway | Belgium | 3,051 | 23.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Finland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| United States | Sweden | 2,141 | 2.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Finland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Belgium | 1,890 | 14.5% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Sweden | 1,885 | 2.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 1,672 | 9.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Finland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| United States | Belgium | 1,626 | 12.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Finland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 1,410 | 8.3% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United Kingdom | Belgium | 916 | 7.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Finland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| Denmark | Sweden | 907 | 1.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Finland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| Nigeria | Belgium | 810 | 6.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Finland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| Nigeria | Netherlands | 712 | 4.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Finland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| Libya | Netherlands | 243 | 1.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Finland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| Libya | Belgium | 167 | 1.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Finland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| Smaller flows: no crude data | United States | 6 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 2 | 34.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Finland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| Norway | Germany | 1 | 21.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Finland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| United States | Germany | 1 | 16.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Finland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| United Kingdom | Germany | 1 | 9.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Finland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| Libya | Germany | 0 | 7.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Finland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Germany | 0 | 5.5% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Nigeria | Germany | 0 | 2.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Finland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Germany | 0 | 2.0% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Denmark | Germany | 0 | 0.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Finland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: low. |
| Smaller flows: no crude data | Singapore | 0 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
3 flows with a share under 0.1% are not listed here. They are still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2024-10 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceLowMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · low
Provenance
Inferred · lowLow- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2024-10 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · low
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the countries whose refineries made it. Right: Finland’s supply of road diesel in 2024-10, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed supplier links are imports estimated from published euro values: the country reported no imports of this fuel for the month, customs records show imports, and the customs quantities were withheld, so the tonnes are the customs euro values divided by the price other EU countries paid (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis: a supplier inside the EU is the country the fuel was shipped from. INFERRED. Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2024-10 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2024-08 to 2024-10.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Sweden: crude origin not reported (11,009 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (3,300 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (1,885 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: no crude data (6 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only; fuel re-exported through a supplier is not followed further.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.