Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In February 2025, Finland's road diesel supply was 489 kt: 70% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Sweden (15%) and Qatar (7%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (74%), and 13% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway362 kt (est. 74%)United Kingdom21 kt (est. 4%)United States16 kt (est. 3%)Guyana8.9 kt (est. 2%)Libya3.8 kt (est. <1%)Nigeria2.9 kt (est. <1%)Kazakhstan2.7 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins7.0 kt (est. 1%)Qatar: no crude data34 kt (7%)Finland: crude origin not reported7.7 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports7.6 kt (2%)Sweden: crude origin not reported6.8 kt (1%)Denmark: crude not from imports6.7 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported1.4 kt (<1%)Finland (own refineries)342 kt (70%)Sweden73 kt (est. 15%)Qatar34 kt (est. 7%)Denmark16 kt (est. 3%)Netherlands16 kt (est. 3%)Belgium7.5 kt (est. 2%)Germanyless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)Finland: road diesel supply489 kt (70%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Finland (own refineries)
- Sweden
- Qatar
- Denmark
- Netherlands
- Belgium
- Germany
- Norway362 kt (est. 74%)
- United Kingdom21 kt (est. 4%)
- United States16 kt (est. 3%)
- Guyana8.9 kt (est. 2%)
- Libya3.8 kt (est. <1%)
- Nigeria2.9 kt (est. <1%)
- Kazakhstan2.7 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins7.0 kt (est. 1%)
- Qatar: no crude data34 kt (7%)
- Finland: crude origin not reported7.7 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports7.6 kt (2%)
- Sweden: crude origin not reported6.8 kt (1%)
- Denmark: crude not from imports6.7 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported1.4 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Feb 2025)
362.2 thousand tonnes
est. 74% of Finland's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported362 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Finland (own refineries)317 kt (est. 87%)
- Sweden37 kt (est. 10%)
- Denmark3.9 kt (est. 1%)
and 3 more in the table above
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finland (own refineries) | Finland: road diesel supply | 342,000 | 70.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Sweden | Finland: road diesel supply | 72,706 | 14.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland reported no road diesel imports for the month but customs records show them with the quantities withheld; tonnes estimated from the published euro values (customs basis). |
| Qatar | Finland: road diesel supply | 34,065 | 7.0% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland reported no road diesel imports for the month but customs records show them with the quantities withheld; tonnes estimated from the published euro values (customs basis). |
| Denmark | Finland: road diesel supply | 16,360 | 3.3% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland reported no road diesel imports for the month but customs records show them with the quantities withheld; tonnes estimated from the published euro values (customs basis). |
| Netherlands | Finland: road diesel supply | 16,130 | 3.3% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland reported no road diesel imports for the month but customs records show them with the quantities withheld; tonnes estimated from the published euro values (customs basis). |
| Belgium | Finland: road diesel supply | 7,499 | 1.5% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland reported no road diesel imports for the month but customs records show them with the quantities withheld; tonnes estimated from the published euro values (customs basis). |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Finland (own refineries) | 316,542 | 92.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Finland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Sweden | 37,408 | 51.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Finland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Qatar: no crude data | Qatar | 34,065 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United Kingdom | Finland (own refineries) | 13,848 | 4.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Finland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Sweden | 8,716 | 12.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Finland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Finland: crude origin not reported | Finland (own refineries) | 7,693 | 2.2% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Sweden: crude origin not reported | Sweden | 6,799 | 9.4% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Denmark: crude not from imports | Denmark | 6,660 | 40.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States | Sweden | 5,626 | 7.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Finland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| United States | Denmark | 4,960 | 30.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Finland split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| United Kingdom | Sweden | 4,697 | 6.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Finland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| United States | Netherlands | 4,228 | 26.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Finland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Norway | Denmark | 3,922 | 24.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Finland split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Finland (own refineries) | 3,917 | 1.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Sweden | 3,697 | 5.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 3,142 | 19.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Finland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Libya | Sweden | 2,796 | 3.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Finland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 2,785 | 17.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Finland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 2,213 | 29.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Finland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Nigeria | Sweden | 2,158 | 3.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Finland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 1,880 | 11.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Finland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 1,802 | 11.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Finland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Norway | Belgium | 1,548 | 20.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Finland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| United States | Belgium | 1,437 | 19.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Finland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 990 | 6.1% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Kazakhstan | Belgium | 811 | 10.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Finland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Other crude origins | Sweden | 809 | 1.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Finland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Other crude origins | Denmark | 808 | 4.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Finland split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Libya | Netherlands | 752 | 4.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Finland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Nigeria | Netherlands | 530 | 3.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Finland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| United Kingdom | Belgium | 458 | 6.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Finland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Belgium | 363 | 4.8% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Libya | Belgium | 260 | 3.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Finland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Nigeria | Belgium | 250 | 3.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Finland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Guyana | Belgium | 158 | 2.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Finland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Netherlands | 21 | 0.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Norway | Germany | 0 | 19.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Finland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| United States | Germany | 0 | 15.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Finland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 0 | 14.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Finland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Germany | 0 | 12.7% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Libya | Germany | 0 | 11.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Finland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Kazakhstan | Germany | 0 | 11.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Finland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| United Kingdom | Germany | 0 | 10.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Finland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Nigeria | Germany | 0 | 3.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Finland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: low. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Germany | 0 | 0.4% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
3 flows with a share under 0.1% are not listed here. They are still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2025-02 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceLowMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · low
Provenance
Inferred · lowLow- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-02 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · low
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Finland’s supply of road diesel in 2025-02, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed supplier links are imports estimated from published euro values: the country reported no imports of this fuel for the month, customs records show imports, and the customs quantities were withheld, so the tonnes are the customs euro values divided by the price other EU countries paid (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis: a supplier inside the EU is the country the fuel was shipped from. INFERRED. Method
Month: 2025-02 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2024-12 to 2025-02.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Qatar: no crude data (34,065 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Finland: crude origin not reported (7,693 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (7,635 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Sweden: crude origin not reported (6,799 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Denmark: crude not from imports (6,660 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (1,362 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.