Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In June 2025, Lithuania's road diesel supply was 304 kt: 92% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from the Netherlands (6%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (36%), Saudi Arabia (33%) and Algeria (11%), and 4% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway109 kt (est. 36%)Saudi Arabia99 kt (est. 33%)Algeria32 kt (est. 11%)United Kingdom26 kt (est. 8%)United States16 kt (est. 5%)Kazakhstan2.4 kt (est. <1%)Iraq1.6 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins3.8 kt (est. 1%)Lithuania: crude not from imports8.8 kt (3%)Latvia: no refinery3.1 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported1.5 kt (<1%)Lithuania (own refineries)278 kt (92%)Netherlands19 kt (6%)Finland3.2 kt (1%)Latvia3.1 kt (1%)Lithuania: road diesel supply304 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Lithuania (own refineries)
- Netherlands
- Finland
- Latvia
- Norway109 kt (est. 36%)
- Saudi Arabia99 kt (est. 33%)
- Algeria32 kt (est. 11%)
- United Kingdom26 kt (est. 8%)
- United States16 kt (est. 5%)
- Kazakhstan2.4 kt (est. <1%)
- Iraq1.6 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins3.8 kt (est. 1%)
- Lithuania: crude not from imports8.8 kt (3%)
- Latvia: no refinery3.1 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported1.5 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Jun 2025)
3.8 thousand tonnes
est. 1% of Lithuania's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported3.8 kt estimated
Inferred · mediumEstimated
Last shipped from
- Netherlands3.5 kt (est. 94%)
- Finland0.2 kt (est. 6%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania (own refineries) | Lithuania: road diesel supply | 278,000 | 91.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Netherlands | Lithuania: road diesel supply | 19,400 | 6.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Lithuania: road diesel supply | 3,200 | 1.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Latvia | Lithuania: road diesel supply | 3,100 | 1.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Lithuania (own refineries) | 103,342 | 37.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Lithuania split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania (own refineries) | 98,864 | 35.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Lithuania split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania (own refineries) | 32,493 | 11.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Lithuania split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania (own refineries) | 23,238 | 8.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Lithuania split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Lithuania (own refineries) | 11,297 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Lithuania split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Lithuania: crude not from imports | Lithuania (own refineries) | 8,765 | 3.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States | Netherlands | 4,343 | 22.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Lithuania split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 3,531 | 18.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Lithuania split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 3,295 | 17.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Lithuania split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Latvia: no refinery | Latvia | 3,100 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| Norway | Finland | 2,466 | 77.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Lithuania split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 2,371 | 12.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Lithuania split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 2,297 | 11.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Lithuania split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Netherlands | 1,584 | 8.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Lithuania split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 1,493 | 7.7% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United States | Finland | 497 | 15.5% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Lithuania split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Saudi Arabia | Netherlands | 486 | 2.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Lithuania split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Finland | 238 | 7.4% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Lithuania split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
Source & method
Source Period 2025-06 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-06 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Lithuania’s supply of road diesel in 2025-06, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2025-06 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-04 to 2025-06.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Lithuania: crude not from imports (8,765 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Latvia: no refinery (3,100 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (1,493 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.