Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In September 2025, Lithuania's road diesel supply was 295 kt: 77% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from the United States (14%) and Finland (6%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Saudi Arabia (28%), Norway (23%) and the United Kingdom (20%), and 16% cannot be traced.
Country
Saudi Arabia83 kt (est. 28%)Norway68 kt (est. 23%)United Kingdom58 kt (est. 20%)Algeria32 kt (est. 11%)United States2.7 kt (est. <1%)Guyana0.8 kt (est. <1%)Kazakhstan0.5 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins1.4 kt (est. <1%)United States: no crude data41 kt (14%)Latvia: no refinery6.2 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.2 kt (<1%)Lithuania (own refineries)227 kt (77%)United States41 kt (14%)Finland17 kt (6%)Latvia6.2 kt (2%)Netherlands3.2 kt (1%)Lithuania: road diesel supply295 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Lithuania (own refineries)
- United States
- Finland
- Latvia
- Netherlands
- Saudi Arabia83 kt (est. 28%)
- Norway68 kt (est. 23%)
- United Kingdom58 kt (est. 20%)
- Algeria32 kt (est. 11%)
- United States2.7 kt (est. <1%)
- Guyana0.8 kt (est. <1%)
- Kazakhstan0.5 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins1.4 kt (est. <1%)
- United States: no crude data41 kt (14%)
- Latvia: no refinery6.2 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.2 kt (<1%)
Where the fuel was refined
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Road diesel supplied (Sep 2025)
16.7 thousand tonnes
6% of Lithuania's road diesel supply
OfficialEstimated
Crude behind it (estimate)
- Norway13 kt (est. 81%)
- United States2.0 kt (est. 12%)
- Guyana0.8 kt (est. 5%)
and 1 more in the table above
Source: Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis); Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania (own refineries) | Lithuania: road diesel supply | 227,400 | 77.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| United States | Lithuania: road diesel supply | 41,300 | 14.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Finland | Lithuania: road diesel supply | 16,700 | 5.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Latvia | Lithuania: road diesel supply | 6,200 | 2.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Lithuania: road diesel supply | 3,200 | 1.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania (own refineries) | 83,236 | 36.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Lithuania split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania (own refineries) | 58,101 | 25.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Lithuania split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania (own refineries) | 54,266 | 23.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Lithuania split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 41,300 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Algeria | Lithuania (own refineries) | 31,798 | 14.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Lithuania split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 13,465 | 80.6% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Lithuania split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Latvia: no refinery | Latvia | 6,200 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| United States | Finland | 2,035 | 12.2% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Lithuania split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 942 | 29.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Lithuania split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Finland | 764 | 4.6% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Lithuania split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Norway | Netherlands | 657 | 20.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Lithuania split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 627 | 19.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Lithuania split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 479 | 15.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Lithuania split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Finland | 436 | 2.6% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Lithuania split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 261 | 8.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Lithuania split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 198 | 6.2% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Saudi Arabia | Netherlands | 36 | 1.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Lithuania split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
Source & method
Source Period 2025-09 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-09 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the countries whose refineries made it. Right: Lithuania’s supply of road diesel in 2025-09, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2025-09 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-07 to 2025-09.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- United States: no crude data (41,300 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Latvia: no refinery (6,200 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (198 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only; fuel re-exported through a supplier is not followed further.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.