Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In November 2025, Lithuania's road diesel supply was 312 kt: 87% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Finland (6%) and Estonia (5%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Saudi Arabia (39%), Norway (29%) and the United Kingdom (12%), and 7% cannot be traced.
Country
Saudi Arabia123 kt (est. 39%)Norway92 kt (est. 29%)United Kingdom39 kt (est. 12%)Algeria33 kt (est. 11%)Guyana1.1 kt (est. <1%)United States1.1 kt (est. <1%)Denmark0.6 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins0.9 kt (est. <1%)Estonia: no refinery16 kt (5%)Latvia: no refinery5.3 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.1 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Lithuania (own refineries)270 kt (87%)Finland18 kt (6%)Estonia16 kt (5%)Latvia5.3 kt (2%)Belgium2.0 kt (<1%)Lithuania: road diesel supply312 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Lithuania (own refineries)
- Finland
- Estonia
- Latvia
- Belgium
- Saudi Arabia123 kt (est. 39%)
- Norway92 kt (est. 29%)
- United Kingdom39 kt (est. 12%)
- Algeria33 kt (est. 11%)
- Guyana1.1 kt (est. <1%)
- United States1.1 kt (est. <1%)
- Denmark0.6 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins0.9 kt (est. <1%)
- Estonia: no refinery16 kt (5%)
- Latvia: no refinery5.3 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.1 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Nov 2025)
1.1 thousand tonnes
est. <1% of Lithuania's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported1.1 kt estimated
Inferred · mediumEstimated
Last shipped from
- Finland0.9 kt (est. 84%)
- Belgium0.2 kt (est. 16%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania (own refineries) | Lithuania: road diesel supply | 270,000 | 86.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Finland | Lithuania: road diesel supply | 18,200 | 5.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Estonia | Lithuania: road diesel supply | 16,000 | 5.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Latvia | Lithuania: road diesel supply | 5,300 | 1.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Belgium | Lithuania: road diesel supply | 2,000 | 0.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania (own refineries) | 122,710 | 45.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Lithuania split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-09 to 2025-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania (own refineries) | 77,640 | 28.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Lithuania split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-09 to 2025-11. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania (own refineries) | 36,391 | 13.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Lithuania split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-09 to 2025-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania (own refineries) | 33,259 | 12.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Lithuania split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-09 to 2025-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Estonia: no refinery | Estonia | 16,000 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| Norway | Finland | 13,606 | 74.8% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Lithuania split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-09 to 2025-11. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Latvia: no refinery | Latvia | 5,300 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 2,202 | 12.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Lithuania split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-09 to 2025-11. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Guyana | Finland | 947 | 5.2% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Lithuania split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-09 to 2025-11. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 891 | 44.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Lithuania split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-09 to 2025-11. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Finland | 815 | 4.5% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Lithuania split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-09 to 2025-11. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Denmark | Finland | 630 | 3.5% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Lithuania split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-09 to 2025-11. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Norway | Belgium | 492 | 24.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Lithuania split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-09 to 2025-11. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Belgium | 275 | 13.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Lithuania split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-09 to 2025-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Belgium | 175 | 8.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Lithuania split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-09 to 2025-11. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Belgium | 134 | 6.7% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United Kingdom | Belgium | 33 | 1.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Lithuania split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-09 to 2025-11. Confidence: medium. |
2 flows with a share under 0.1% are not listed here. They are still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2025-11 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceLowMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · low
Provenance
Inferred · lowLow- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-11 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · low
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Lithuania’s supply of road diesel in 2025-11, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2025-11 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-09 to 2025-11.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Estonia: no refinery (16,000 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Latvia: no refinery (5,300 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (134 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (1 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.