Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In February 2025, Luxembourg's road diesel supply was 80 kt, all of it imported, from Belgium (85%), the Netherlands (9%) and Germany (6%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (20%), the United States (20%) and Kazakhstan (11%), and 5% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway16 kt (est. 20%)United States16 kt (est. 20%)Kazakhstan8.8 kt (est. 11%)United Kingdom5.5 kt (est. 7%)Iraq4.8 kt (est. 6%)Brazil4.4 kt (est. 6%)Democratic Republic of the Congo3.3 kt (est. 4%)Other crude origins17 kt (est. 21%)Belgium: crude origin not reported3.3 kt (4%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported1.1 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Belgium68 kt (85%)Netherlands7.4 kt (9%)Germany4.7 kt (6%)Luxembourg: road diesel supply80 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Belgium
- Netherlands
- Germany
- Norway16 kt (est. 20%)
- United States16 kt (est. 20%)
- Kazakhstan8.8 kt (est. 11%)
- United Kingdom5.5 kt (est. 7%)
- Iraq4.8 kt (est. 6%)
- Brazil4.4 kt (est. 6%)
- Democratic Republic of the Congo3.3 kt (est. 4%)
- Other crude origins17 kt (est. 21%)
- Belgium: crude origin not reported3.3 kt (4%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported1.1 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Feb 2025)
17.0 thousand tonnes
est. 21% of Luxembourg's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported17 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Belgium15 kt (est. 87%)
- Germany1.3 kt (est. 8%)
- Netherlands0.9 kt (est. 5%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | Luxembourg: road diesel supply | 68,144 | 84.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Luxembourg: road diesel supply | 7,394 | 9.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Germany | Luxembourg: road diesel supply | 4,741 | 5.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 14,833 | 21.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Belgium | 14,071 | 20.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Belgium | 13,055 | 19.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Belgium | 7,366 | 10.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Belgium | 4,194 | 6.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Belgium | 4,159 | 6.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Brazil | Belgium | 3,834 | 5.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | Belgium | 3,329 | 4.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Belgium: crude origin not reported | Belgium | 3,301 | 4.8% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United States | Netherlands | 1,938 | 26.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 1,305 | 27.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 1,277 | 17.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Germany | 925 | 19.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 906 | 12.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 862 | 11.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 826 | 11.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Germany | 754 | 15.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Germany | 601 | 12.7% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Brazil | Netherlands | 587 | 7.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Germany | 562 | 11.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Netherlands | 536 | 7.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Germany | 479 | 10.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 454 | 6.1% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Iraq | Germany | 76 | 1.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Brazil | Germany | 20 | 0.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Germany | 18 | 0.4% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Netherlands | 10 | 0.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2025-02 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-02 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Luxembourg’s supply of road diesel in 2025-02, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2025-02 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2024-12 to 2025-02.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Belgium: crude origin not reported (3,301 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (1,055 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (29 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.