Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In March 2025, Luxembourg's road diesel supply was 85 kt, all of it imported, from Belgium (83%) and Germany (17%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (21%), the United States (16%) and Kazakhstan (13%), and 4% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway18 kt (est. 21%)United States14 kt (est. 16%)Kazakhstan11 kt (est. 13%)United Kingdom5.8 kt (est. 7%)Nigeria5.7 kt (est. 7%)Iraq5.0 kt (est. 6%)Libya4.9 kt (est. 6%)Other crude origins17 kt (est. 20%)Germany: crude origin not reported1.5 kt (2%)Belgium: crude origin not reported1.4 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.5 kt (<1%)Belgium71 kt (83%)Germany15 kt (17%)Luxembourg: road diesel supply85 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Norway18 kt (est. 21%)
- United States14 kt (est. 16%)
- Kazakhstan11 kt (est. 13%)
- United Kingdom5.8 kt (est. 7%)
- Nigeria5.7 kt (est. 7%)
- Iraq5.0 kt (est. 6%)
- Libya4.9 kt (est. 6%)
- Other crude origins17 kt (est. 20%)
- Germany: crude origin not reported1.5 kt (2%)
- Belgium: crude origin not reported1.4 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.5 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Mar 2025)
17.4 thousand tonnes
est. 20% of Luxembourg's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported17 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Belgium16 kt (est. 91%)
- Germany1.6 kt (est. 9%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | Luxembourg: road diesel supply | 70,861 | 83.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Germany | Luxembourg: road diesel supply | 14,513 | 17.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 15,812 | 22.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Belgium | 15,017 | 21.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Belgium | 11,614 | 16.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Belgium | 9,522 | 13.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Belgium | 5,140 | 7.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Belgium | 4,589 | 6.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Belgium | 4,305 | 6.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Belgium | 3,437 | 4.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Germany | 2,982 | 20.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Germany | 2,384 | 16.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Germany | 1,591 | 11.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 1,557 | 10.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Germany: crude origin not reported | Germany | 1,525 | 10.5% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United Kingdom | Germany | 1,525 | 10.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Germany | 1,500 | 10.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Belgium: crude origin not reported | Belgium | 1,426 | 2.0% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Nigeria | Germany | 607 | 4.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Germany | 463 | 3.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Iraq | Germany | 380 | 2.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-01 to 2025-03. Confidence: medium. |
Source & method
Source Period 2025-03 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-03 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Luxembourg’s supply of road diesel in 2025-03, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2025-03 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-01 to 2025-03.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Germany: crude origin not reported (1,525 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Belgium: crude origin not reported (1,426 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (463 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.