Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In December 2025, Luxembourg's road diesel supply was 69 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Belgium (88%) and Germany (8%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (23%), the United States (17%) and Kazakhstan (17%), and 1% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway16 kt (est. 23%)United States12 kt (est. 17%)Kazakhstan12 kt (est. 17%)Guyana8.2 kt (est. 12%)Brazil4.2 kt (est. 6%)Canada3.9 kt (est. 6%)Nigeria3.5 kt (est. 5%)Other crude origins9.3 kt (est. 13%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.7 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.1 kt (<1%)Belgium60 kt (88%)Germany5.7 kt (8%)Netherlands2.8 kt (4%)Luxembourg: road diesel supply69 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Belgium
- Germany
- Netherlands
- Norway16 kt (est. 23%)
- United States12 kt (est. 17%)
- Kazakhstan12 kt (est. 17%)
- Guyana8.2 kt (est. 12%)
- Brazil4.2 kt (est. 6%)
- Canada3.9 kt (est. 6%)
- Nigeria3.5 kt (est. 5%)
- Other crude origins9.3 kt (est. 13%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.7 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Dec 2025)
8.2 thousand tonnes
est. 12% of Luxembourg's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported8.2 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Belgium8.2 kt (est. 100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | Luxembourg: road diesel supply | 60,479 | 87.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Germany | Luxembourg: road diesel supply | 5,680 | 8.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Luxembourg: road diesel supply | 2,836 | 4.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Belgium | 14,237 | 23.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Belgium | 10,411 | 17.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Belgium | 10,392 | 17.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Belgium | 8,164 | 13.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 6,611 | 10.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Brazil | Belgium | 3,890 | 6.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Canada | Belgium | 3,649 | 6.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Belgium | 3,125 | 5.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 2,102 | 37.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Germany | 901 | 15.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Germany | 884 | 15.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Germany | 809 | 14.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 696 | 24.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 554 | 19.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Germany | 548 | 9.7% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 507 | 17.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 412 | 14.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Brazil | Netherlands | 189 | 6.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Netherlands | 181 | 6.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Germany | 167 | 2.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 165 | 5.8% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Canada | Netherlands | 131 | 4.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Canada | Germany | 124 | 2.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Brazil | Germany | 75 | 1.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Germany | 70 | 1.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
Source & method
Source Period 2025-12 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-12 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Luxembourg’s supply of road diesel in 2025-12, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2025-12 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-10 to 2025-12.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (713 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (70 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.