Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In February 2026, Luxembourg's road diesel supply was 69 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Belgium (85%) and Germany (12%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (30%), the United States (21%) and Kazakhstan (9%), and 1% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway21 kt (est. 30%)United States15 kt (est. 21%)Kazakhstan6.5 kt (est. 9%)Guyana5.5 kt (est. 8%)Nigeria4.9 kt (est. 7%)United Kingdom3.5 kt (est. 5%)Iraq2.1 kt (est. 3%)Other crude origins10 kt (est. 15%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.4 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.4 kt (<1%)Belgium59 kt (85%)Germany8.0 kt (12%)Netherlands2.4 kt (3%)Luxembourg: road diesel supply69 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Belgium
- Germany
- Netherlands
- Norway21 kt (est. 30%)
- United States15 kt (est. 21%)
- Kazakhstan6.5 kt (est. 9%)
- Guyana5.5 kt (est. 8%)
- Nigeria4.9 kt (est. 7%)
- United Kingdom3.5 kt (est. 5%)
- Iraq2.1 kt (est. 3%)
- Other crude origins10 kt (est. 15%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.4 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.4 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Feb 2026)
21.0 thousand tonnes
est. 30% of Luxembourg's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported21 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Belgium19 kt (est. 92%)
- Germany1.2 kt (est. 6%)
- Netherlands0.5 kt (est. 2%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | Luxembourg: road diesel supply | 58,680 | 85.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Germany | Luxembourg: road diesel supply | 7,980 | 11.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Luxembourg: road diesel supply | 2,384 | 3.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Belgium | 19,232 | 32.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Belgium | 12,618 | 21.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 7,922 | 13.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Belgium | 5,116 | 8.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Belgium | 4,932 | 8.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Belgium | 4,457 | 7.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Belgium | 2,407 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 1,953 | 24.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Belgium | 1,857 | 3.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Germany | 1,283 | 16.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Germany | 1,209 | 15.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Germany | 1,190 | 14.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Germany | 883 | 11.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 604 | 25.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Germany | 548 | 6.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 512 | 21.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 404 | 16.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Germany | 275 | 3.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Germany | 274 | 3.4% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Germany | 238 | 3.0% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 190 | 8.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 190 | 8.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 173 | 7.3% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Iraq | Netherlands | 162 | 6.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Netherlands | 149 | 6.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Belgium | 140 | 0.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Iraq | Germany | 128 | 1.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
Source & method
Source Period 2026-02 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2026-02 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Luxembourg’s supply of road diesel in 2026-02, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2026-02 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-12 to 2026-02.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (447 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (377 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.