Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In October 2025, Luxembourg's road diesel supply was 74 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Belgium (90%) and the Netherlands (5%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (23%), Kazakhstan (18%) and the United States (12%), and 9% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway17 kt (est. 23%)Kazakhstan13 kt (est. 18%)United States9.1 kt (est. 12%)Brazil5.8 kt (est. 8%)Guyana4.0 kt (est. 5%)Angola2.8 kt (est. 4%)Nigeria2.8 kt (est. 4%)Other crude origins13 kt (est. 17%)Belgium: crude origin not reported5.5 kt (7%)Belgium: crude not from imports0.8 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.5 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.1 kt (<1%)Belgium67 kt (90%)Netherlands3.7 kt (5%)Germany3.7 kt (5%)Luxembourg: road diesel supply74 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Belgium
- Netherlands
- Germany
- Norway17 kt (est. 23%)
- Kazakhstan13 kt (est. 18%)
- United States9.1 kt (est. 12%)
- Brazil5.8 kt (est. 8%)
- Guyana4.0 kt (est. 5%)
- Angola2.8 kt (est. 4%)
- Nigeria2.8 kt (est. 4%)
- Other crude origins13 kt (est. 17%)
- Belgium: crude origin not reported5.5 kt (7%)
- Belgium: crude not from imports0.8 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.5 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Oct 2025)
5.5 thousand tonnes
7% of Luxembourg's road diesel supply
Unknown
Last shipped from
- Belgium5.5 kt (100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | Luxembourg: road diesel supply | 66,865 | 90.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Luxembourg: road diesel supply | 3,745 | 5.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Germany | Luxembourg: road diesel supply | 3,692 | 5.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Belgium | 15,506 | 23.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Belgium | 12,132 | 18.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 10,524 | 15.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Belgium | 7,867 | 11.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Belgium: crude origin not reported | Belgium | 5,481 | 8.2% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Brazil | Belgium | 5,426 | 8.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Belgium | 4,021 | 6.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Angola | Belgium | 2,758 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Belgium | 2,368 | 3.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 1,517 | 41.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 819 | 21.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 803 | 21.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 783 | 20.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Belgium: crude not from imports | Belgium | 783 | 1.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 527 | 14.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Germany | 512 | 13.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Germany | 511 | 13.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Germany | 500 | 13.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Brazil | Netherlands | 313 | 8.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Germany | 304 | 8.2% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Nigeria | Netherlands | 219 | 5.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 217 | 5.8% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Nigeria | Germany | 186 | 5.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Germany | 85 | 2.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Angola | Netherlands | 63 | 1.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Brazil | Germany | 58 | 1.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Angola | Germany | 20 | 0.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Luxembourg split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
Source & method
Source Period 2025-10 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-10 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Luxembourg’s supply of road diesel in 2025-10, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2025-10 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-08 to 2025-10.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Belgium: crude origin not reported (5,481 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Belgium: crude not from imports (783 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (521 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (85 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.