Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In August 2025, Poland's road diesel supply was 1,626 kt: 66% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Germany (14%) and the Netherlands (8%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (30%), Saudi Arabia (28%) and Guyana (8%), and 8% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway481 kt (est. 30%)Saudi Arabia452 kt (est. 28%)Guyana126 kt (est. 8%)United States103 kt (est. 6%)United Kingdom88 kt (est. 5%)Nigeria61 kt (est. 4%)Kazakhstan50 kt (est. 3%)Other crude origins132 kt (est. 8%)United States: no crude data62 kt (4%)Poland: crude not from imports39 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported23 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports9.6 kt (<1%)Poland (own refineries)1.08 Mt (66%)Germany227 kt (14%)Netherlands135 kt (8%)Finland66 kt (4%)United States62 kt (4%)Sweden30 kt (2%)Denmark16 kt (1%)Lithuania7.1 kt (<1%)Slovakia3.0 kt (<1%)Poland: road diesel supply1.63 Mt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Poland (own refineries)
- Germany
- Netherlands
- Finland
- United States
- Sweden
- Denmark
- Lithuania
- Other (1)
- Norway481 kt (est. 30%)
- Saudi Arabia452 kt (est. 28%)
- Guyana126 kt (est. 8%)
- United States103 kt (est. 6%)
- United Kingdom88 kt (est. 5%)
- Nigeria61 kt (est. 4%)
- Kazakhstan50 kt (est. 3%)
- Other crude origins132 kt (est. 8%)
- United States: no crude data62 kt (4%)
- Poland: crude not from imports39 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported23 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports9.6 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Aug 2025)
125.8 thousand tonnes
est. 8% of Poland's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported126 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Poland (own refineries)122 kt (est. 97%)
- Sweden3.6 kt (est. 3%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland (own refineries) | Poland: road diesel supply | 1,079,339 | 66.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Germany | Poland: road diesel supply | 227,008 | 14.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Poland: road diesel supply | 135,461 | 8.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Poland: road diesel supply | 65,877 | 4.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Poland: road diesel supply | 61,821 | 3.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Sweden | Poland: road diesel supply | 30,334 | 1.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Denmark | Poland: road diesel supply | 16,374 | 1.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Lithuania | Poland: road diesel supply | 7,073 | 0.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Slovakia | Poland: road diesel supply | 2,979 | 0.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Poland (own refineries) | 441,160 | 40.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Poland (own refineries) | 346,996 | 32.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Poland (own refineries) | 122,225 | 11.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 77,331 | 34.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 61,821 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Norway | Finland | 51,178 | 77.7% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United Kingdom | Poland (own refineries) | 44,668 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Poland (own refineries) | 42,006 | 3.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Poland: crude not from imports | Poland (own refineries) | 39,411 | 3.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Norway | Germany | 38,174 | 16.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 33,386 | 24.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Germany | 30,823 | 13.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Poland (own refineries) | 29,595 | 2.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Germany | 28,728 | 12.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 25,531 | 18.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Germany | 24,078 | 10.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 23,579 | 17.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 19,207 | 14.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Sweden | 15,190 | 50.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Poland (own refineries) | 13,279 | 1.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Germany | 13,251 | 5.8% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 13,068 | 9.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Finland | 10,495 | 15.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Nigeria | Germany | 10,070 | 4.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 9,944 | 7.3% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Nigeria | Netherlands | 7,665 | 5.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Denmark | 5,919 | 36.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States | Denmark | 4,652 | 28.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Poland split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Germany | 4,553 | 2.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Finland | 4,204 | 6.4% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United States | Sweden | 3,968 | 13.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Denmark | 3,885 | 23.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Poland split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Sweden | 3,594 | 11.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Sweden | 3,424 | 11.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Saudi Arabia | Netherlands | 3,079 | 2.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Sweden | 2,709 | 8.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 2,573 | 36.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Slovakia | 2,561 | 86.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Poland split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 2,173 | 30.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Denmark | 1,918 | 11.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Poland split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 1,552 | 21.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Sweden | 922 | 3.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Lithuania | 775 | 11.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Sweden | 527 | 1.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Slovakia | 211 | 7.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Saudi Arabia | Slovakia | 206 | 6.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Poland split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2025-06 to 2025-08. Confidence: medium. |
Source & method
Source Period 2025-08 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-08 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Poland’s supply of road diesel in 2025-08, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2025-08 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-06 to 2025-08.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- United States: no crude data (61,821 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Poland: crude not from imports (39,411 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (23,195 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (9,555 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.