Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In October 2024, Poland's road diesel supply was 1,646 kt: 68% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from the Netherlands (13%), Germany (8%) and Sweden (7%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Saudi Arabia (37%), Norway (25%) and the United States (9%), and 12% cannot be traced.
Country
Saudi Arabia611 kt (est. 37%)Norway418 kt (est. 25%)United States154 kt (est. 9%)United Kingdom73 kt (est. 4%)Kazakhstan43 kt (est. 3%)Nigeria42 kt (est. 3%)Iraq30 kt (est. 2%)Other crude origins70 kt (est. 4%)Poland: crude origin not reported110 kt (7%)United States: no crude data45 kt (3%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported23 kt (1%)Netherlands: crude origin not reported18 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports8.9 kt (<1%)Poland (own refineries)1.12 Mt (68%)Netherlands218 kt (13%)Germany136 kt (8%)Sweden118 kt (7%)United States45 kt (3%)Finland4.8 kt (<1%)Hungary3.4 kt (<1%)Slovakia0.5 kt (<1%)Poland: road diesel supply1.65 Mt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Poland (own refineries)
- Netherlands
- Germany
- Sweden
- United States
- Finland
- Hungary
- Slovakia
- Saudi Arabia611 kt (est. 37%)
- Norway418 kt (est. 25%)
- United States154 kt (est. 9%)
- United Kingdom73 kt (est. 4%)
- Kazakhstan43 kt (est. 3%)
- Nigeria42 kt (est. 3%)
- Iraq30 kt (est. 2%)
- Other crude origins70 kt (est. 4%)
- Poland: crude origin not reported110 kt (7%)
- United States: no crude data45 kt (3%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported23 kt (1%)
- Netherlands: crude origin not reported18 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports8.9 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Oct 2024)
29.6 thousand tonnes
est. 2% of Poland's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported30 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Netherlands21 kt (est. 70%)
- Germany9.0 kt (est. 30%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland (own refineries) | Poland: road diesel supply | 1,120,671 | 68.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Netherlands | Poland: road diesel supply | 217,591 | 13.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Germany | Poland: road diesel supply | 136,257 | 8.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Sweden | Poland: road diesel supply | 117,762 | 7.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Poland: road diesel supply | 44,679 | 2.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Poland: road diesel supply | 4,764 | 0.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Hungary | Poland: road diesel supply | 3,364 | 0.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Poland (own refineries) | 606,036 | 54.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Poland (own refineries) | 273,494 | 24.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Poland: crude origin not reported | Poland (own refineries) | 109,673 | 9.8% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United States | Poland (own refineries) | 77,467 | 6.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Sweden | 73,009 | 62.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 49,932 | 22.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 44,679 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 38,987 | 17.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 31,427 | 14.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Poland (own refineries) | 30,471 | 2.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Germany | 29,614 | 21.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 28,542 | 20.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 24,952 | 11.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Germany | 22,753 | 16.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 21,337 | 9.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Poland (own refineries) | 20,646 | 1.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Netherlands | 20,555 | 9.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Germany | 18,233 | 13.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Netherlands: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 17,995 | 8.3% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Sweden | 15,812 | 13.4% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United Kingdom | Germany | 12,215 | 9.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Netherlands | 9,090 | 4.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Germany | 9,019 | 6.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Sweden | 8,775 | 7.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Sweden | 8,491 | 7.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Germany | 7,465 | 5.5% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Other crude origins | Sweden | 5,893 | 5.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Germany | 3,587 | 2.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Netherlands | 3,316 | 1.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 3,141 | 65.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United States | Sweden | 3,075 | 2.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Poland (own refineries) | 2,884 | 0.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Other crude origins | Hungary | 2,807 | 83.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Poland split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Germany | 2,784 | 2.0% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Sweden | 2,708 | 2.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Saudi Arabia | Germany | 2,045 | 1.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Finland | 655 | 13.8% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 515 | 10.8% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Other crude origins | Slovakia | 511 | 96.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Poland split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Hungary | 491 | 14.6% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Other crude origins | Finland | 453 | 9.5% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Kazakhstan | Hungary | 66 | 2.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Poland split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Slovakia | 19 | 3.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Poland split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2024-08 to 2024-10. Confidence: medium. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2024-10 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2024-10 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Poland’s supply of road diesel in 2024-10, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2024-10 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2024-08 to 2024-10.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Poland: crude origin not reported (109,673 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- United States: no crude data (44,679 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (23,276 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Netherlands: crude origin not reported (17,995 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (8,867 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.