Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In May 2025, Poland's road diesel supply was 1,655 kt: 64% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Germany (13%), Sweden (9%) and the Netherlands (5%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (34%), Saudi Arabia (24%) and the United Kingdom (8%), and 12% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway564 kt (est. 34%)Saudi Arabia398 kt (est. 24%)United Kingdom132 kt (est. 8%)United States72 kt (est. 4%)Algeria64 kt (est. 4%)Nigeria57 kt (est. 3%)Kazakhstan41 kt (est. 2%)Other crude origins122 kt (est. 7%)Poland: crude origin not reported81 kt (5%)United States: no crude data64 kt (4%)Canada: no crude data33 kt (2%)Germany: crude origin not reported17 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports5.5 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported5.3 kt (<1%)Poland (own refineries)1.06 Mt (64%)Germany208 kt (13%)Sweden156 kt (9%)Netherlands86 kt (5%)United States64 kt (4%)Canada33 kt (2%)Finland33 kt (2%)Hungary10.0 kt (<1%)Austria3.0 kt (<1%)Lithuania1.9 kt (<1%)Slovakia1.8 kt (<1%)Poland: road diesel supply1.66 Mt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Poland (own refineries)
- Germany
- Sweden
- Netherlands
- United States
- Canada
- Finland
- Hungary
- Other (3)
- Norway564 kt (est. 34%)
- Saudi Arabia398 kt (est. 24%)
- United Kingdom132 kt (est. 8%)
- United States72 kt (est. 4%)
- Algeria64 kt (est. 4%)
- Nigeria57 kt (est. 3%)
- Kazakhstan41 kt (est. 2%)
- Other crude origins122 kt (est. 7%)
- Poland: crude origin not reported81 kt (5%)
- United States: no crude data64 kt (4%)
- Canada: no crude data33 kt (2%)
- Germany: crude origin not reported17 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports5.5 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported5.3 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (May 2025)
56.6 thousand tonnes
est. 3% of Poland's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported57 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Poland (own refineries)42 kt (est. 74%)
- Germany7.6 kt (est. 13%)
- Sweden4.5 kt (est. 8%)
and 1 more in the table above
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland (own refineries) | Poland: road diesel supply | 1,059,221 | 64.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Germany | Poland: road diesel supply | 207,585 | 12.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Sweden | Poland: road diesel supply | 155,623 | 9.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Poland: road diesel supply | 85,936 | 5.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Poland: road diesel supply | 64,072 | 3.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Canada | Poland: road diesel supply | 33,484 | 2.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Poland: road diesel supply | 32,852 | 2.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Hungary | Poland: road diesel supply | 9,975 | 0.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Austria | Poland: road diesel supply | 2,979 | 0.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Lithuania | Poland: road diesel supply | 1,856 | 0.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Slovakia | Poland: road diesel supply | 1,770 | 0.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Poland (own refineries) | 405,433 | 38.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Poland (own refineries) | 391,755 | 37.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Sweden | 81,230 | 52.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Poland: crude origin not reported | Poland (own refineries) | 81,216 | 7.7% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United Kingdom | Poland (own refineries) | 76,670 | 7.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 64,072 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 62,178 | 30.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Poland (own refineries) | 58,577 | 5.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Poland (own refineries) | 42,063 | 4.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Germany | 34,223 | 16.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Canada: no crude data | Canada | 33,484 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United States | Germany | 29,774 | 14.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Sweden | 27,209 | 17.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 26,484 | 80.6% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Kazakhstan | Germany | 25,529 | 12.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Sweden | 22,569 | 14.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Germany | 22,355 | 10.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 21,170 | 24.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Sweden | 20,077 | 12.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 16,996 | 19.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Germany: crude origin not reported | Germany | 16,858 | 8.1% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 16,342 | 19.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 13,070 | 15.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 9,733 | 11.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Hungary | 7,699 | 77.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Poland split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Germany | 7,575 | 3.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Germany | 5,420 | 2.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Finland | 5,210 | 15.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 5,157 | 6.0% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Nigeria | Sweden | 4,537 | 2.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Germany | 3,673 | 1.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Poland (own refineries) | 3,508 | 0.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Nigeria | Netherlands | 2,416 | 2.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Hungary | 1,710 | 17.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Other crude origins | Slovakia | 1,700 | 96.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Poland split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Austria | 1,402 | 47.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Finland | 1,158 | 3.5% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Saudi Arabia | Netherlands | 1,052 | 1.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 838 | 45.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Austria | 707 | 23.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Hungary | 566 | 5.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Poland split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 550 | 29.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Austria | 424 | 14.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Austria | 255 | 8.6% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 239 | 12.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Austria | 191 | 6.4% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 142 | 7.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Lithuania | 76 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Slovakia | 43 | 2.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Poland split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Slovakia | 27 | 1.5% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 11 | 0.6% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
Source & method
Source Period 2025-05 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-05 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Poland’s supply of road diesel in 2025-05, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2025-05 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-03 to 2025-05.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Poland: crude origin not reported (81,216 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- United States: no crude data (64,072 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Canada: no crude data (33,484 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Germany: crude origin not reported (16,858 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (5,512 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (5,347 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.