Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In April 2025, Poland's road diesel supply was 1,616 kt: 66% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Germany (12%), the Netherlands (7%) and Finland (5%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (33%), Saudi Arabia (29%) and the United States (7%), and 13% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway535 kt (est. 33%)Saudi Arabia463 kt (est. 29%)United States106 kt (est. 7%)United Kingdom81 kt (est. 5%)Algeria41 kt (est. 3%)Kazakhstan41 kt (est. 3%)Nigeria36 kt (est. 2%)Other crude origins98 kt (est. 6%)Poland: crude not from imports66 kt (4%)Poland: crude origin not reported64 kt (4%)United States: no crude data47 kt (3%)Germany: crude origin not reported21 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports9.9 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported7.7 kt (<1%)Poland (own refineries)1.07 Mt (66%)Germany194 kt (12%)Netherlands113 kt (7%)Finland87 kt (5%)Sweden75 kt (5%)United States47 kt (3%)Lithuania14 kt (<1%)Austria7.9 kt (<1%)Slovakia7.6 kt (<1%)Hungary1.3 kt (<1%)Poland: road diesel supply1.62 Mt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Poland (own refineries)
- Germany
- Netherlands
- Finland
- Sweden
- United States
- Lithuania
- Austria
- Other (2)
- Norway535 kt (est. 33%)
- Saudi Arabia463 kt (est. 29%)
- United States106 kt (est. 7%)
- United Kingdom81 kt (est. 5%)
- Algeria41 kt (est. 3%)
- Kazakhstan41 kt (est. 3%)
- Nigeria36 kt (est. 2%)
- Other crude origins98 kt (est. 6%)
- Poland: crude not from imports66 kt (4%)
- Poland: crude origin not reported64 kt (4%)
- United States: no crude data47 kt (3%)
- Germany: crude origin not reported21 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports9.9 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported7.7 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Apr 2025)
535.1 thousand tonnes
est. 33% of Poland's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported535 kt estimated
Inferred · mediumEstimated
Last shipped from
- Poland (own refineries)362 kt (est. 68%)
- Finland73 kt (est. 14%)
- Sweden40 kt (est. 7%)
and 3 more in the table above
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland (own refineries) | Poland: road diesel supply | 1,068,813 | 66.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Germany | Poland: road diesel supply | 194,043 | 12.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Poland: road diesel supply | 112,741 | 7.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Poland: road diesel supply | 87,352 | 5.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Sweden | Poland: road diesel supply | 75,287 | 4.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Poland: road diesel supply | 46,944 | 2.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Lithuania | Poland: road diesel supply | 13,748 | 0.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Austria | Poland: road diesel supply | 7,911 | 0.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Slovakia | Poland: road diesel supply | 7,617 | 0.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Poland (own refineries) | 450,515 | 42.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Poland (own refineries) | 361,775 | 33.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 72,790 | 83.3% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Poland: crude not from imports | Poland (own refineries) | 65,583 | 6.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Poland: crude origin not reported | Poland (own refineries) | 64,143 | 6.0% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 46,944 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 46,451 | 23.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Sweden | 39,800 | 52.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Poland (own refineries) | 38,664 | 3.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Germany | 37,877 | 19.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Poland (own refineries) | 33,595 | 3.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Poland (own refineries) | 32,069 | 3.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Germany | 28,753 | 14.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 25,903 | 23.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 22,910 | 20.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Poland (own refineries) | 22,469 | 2.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Germany | 21,105 | 10.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Germany: crude origin not reported | Germany | 20,821 | 10.7% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 19,874 | 17.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Germany | 19,645 | 10.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 17,192 | 15.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Sweden | 15,715 | 20.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 12,577 | 11.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Finland | 11,011 | 12.6% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United States | Sweden | 10,659 | 14.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Germany | 7,905 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Slovakia | 7,434 | 97.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Poland split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Sweden | 7,361 | 9.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 7,063 | 6.3% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 6,934 | 50.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Germany | 6,599 | 3.4% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Nigeria | Netherlands | 5,254 | 4.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Austria | 4,052 | 51.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 3,551 | 4.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Norway | Lithuania | 2,963 | 21.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Germany | 2,638 | 1.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 2,377 | 17.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Germany | 2,248 | 1.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Netherlands | 1,968 | 1.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Sweden | 1,752 | 2.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Other crude origins | Austria | 1,519 | 19.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Hungary | 1,074 | 79.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Poland split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2025-03 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Austria | 771 | 9.8% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Saudi Arabia | Austria | 750 | 9.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Austria | 671 | 8.5% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United States | Lithuania | 576 | 4.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 509 | 3.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 388 | 2.8% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Hungary | 269 | 20.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States | Austria | 148 | 1.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Slovakia | 101 | 1.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Poland split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2025-02 to 2025-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Slovakia | 82 | 1.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
2 flows with a share under 0.1% are not listed here. They are still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2025-04 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-04 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Poland’s supply of road diesel in 2025-04, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2025-04 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-02 to 2025-04.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Poland: crude not from imports (65,583 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Poland: crude origin not reported (64,143 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- United States: no crude data (46,944 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Germany: crude origin not reported (20,821 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (9,863 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (7,734 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.