Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In May 2026, Poland's road diesel supply was 1,564 kt: 57% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Germany (16%), the United States (7%) and Sweden (6%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (30%), Saudi Arabia (25%) and the United States (8%), and 20% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway466 kt (est. 30%)Saudi Arabia384 kt (est. 25%)United States125 kt (est. 8%)Guyana64 kt (est. 4%)United Kingdom48 kt (est. 3%)Kazakhstan41 kt (est. 3%)Libya31 kt (est. 2%)Other crude origins88 kt (est. 6%)Poland: crude not from imports116 kt (7%)United States: no crude data102 kt (7%)Norway: no crude data42 kt (3%)Origin not reported: crude unknown42 kt (3%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports13 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported2.5 kt (<1%)Poland (own refineries)899 kt (57%)Germany251 kt (16%)United States102 kt (7%)Sweden92 kt (6%)Lithuania64 kt (4%)Norway42 kt (3%)Netherlands34 kt (2%)Hungary25 kt (2%)Belgium12 kt (<1%)Austria1.1 kt (<1%)Imports, origin not reported42 kt (3%)Poland: road diesel supply1.56 Mt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Poland (own refineries)
- Germany
- United States
- Sweden
- Lithuania
- Norway
- Netherlands
- Hungary
- Other (3)
- Norway466 kt (est. 30%)
- Saudi Arabia384 kt (est. 25%)
- United States125 kt (est. 8%)
- Guyana64 kt (est. 4%)
- United Kingdom48 kt (est. 3%)
- Kazakhstan41 kt (est. 3%)
- Libya31 kt (est. 2%)
- Other crude origins88 kt (est. 6%)
- Poland: crude not from imports116 kt (7%)
- United States: no crude data102 kt (7%)
- Norway: no crude data42 kt (3%)
- Origin not reported: crude unknown42 kt (3%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports13 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported2.5 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Road diesel supplied (May 2026)
41.7 thousand tonnes
3% of Poland's road diesel supply
Unknown
Crude behind it (estimate)
- Origin not reported: crude unknown42 kt (100%)
Source: Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis); Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland (own refineries) | Poland: road diesel supply | 899,270 | 57.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Germany | Poland: road diesel supply | 250,956 | 16.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Poland: road diesel supply | 102,127 | 6.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Sweden | Poland: road diesel supply | 92,071 | 5.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Lithuania | Poland: road diesel supply | 64,172 | 4.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Norway | Poland: road diesel supply | 42,145 | 2.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Imports, origin not reported | Poland: road diesel supply | 41,728 | 2.7% | Summed by usPublisher's import total minus the named partners. |
| Netherlands | Poland: road diesel supply | 33,882 | 2.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Hungary | Poland: road diesel supply | 24,660 | 1.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Belgium | Poland: road diesel supply | 12,297 | 0.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Poland (own refineries) | 346,483 | 38.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Poland (own refineries) | 336,855 | 37.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Poland: crude not from imports | Poland (own refineries) | 115,955 | 12.9% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 102,127 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Norway | Germany | 49,086 | 19.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Sweden | 47,320 | 51.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Germany | 44,820 | 17.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Poland (own refineries) | 42,432 | 4.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway: no crude data | Norway | 42,145 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Origin not reported: crude unknown | Imports, origin not reported | 41,728 | 100.0% | UnknownThe statistics did not say which country these imports came from. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 40,454 | 16.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Poland (own refineries) | 38,698 | 4.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Germany | 34,544 | 13.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 27,995 | 43.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Germany | 25,722 | 10.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Germany | 22,070 | 8.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Sweden | 20,716 | 22.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 20,525 | 32.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Germany | 20,048 | 8.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Poland (own refineries) | 18,846 | 2.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Sweden | 12,976 | 14.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 9,409 | 27.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Hungary | 9,341 | 37.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Poland split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 8,308 | 24.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Germany | 7,613 | 3.0% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Libya | Hungary | 7,127 | 28.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Poland split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Lithuania | 6,862 | 10.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Germany | 6,600 | 2.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 6,504 | 19.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 5,377 | 8.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Sweden | 4,716 | 5.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Sweden | 4,690 | 5.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Belgium | 4,396 | 35.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Poland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Hungary | 4,391 | 17.8% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 3,226 | 9.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 2,894 | 8.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 2,424 | 19.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Poland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 2,384 | 7.0% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Other crude origins | Lithuania | 2,352 | 3.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Belgium | 1,678 | 13.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Poland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Sweden | 1,652 | 1.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Hungary | 1,650 | 6.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Poland split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Belgium | 1,634 | 13.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Poland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Hungary | 1,587 | 6.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Poland split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 1,061 | 1.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United Kingdom | Belgium | 1,003 | 8.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Poland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Netherlands | 830 | 2.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Belgium | 749 | 6.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Poland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Austria | 623 | 54.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Hungary | 564 | 2.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Poland split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Netherlands | 326 | 1.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Belgium | 180 | 1.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Poland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Austria | 148 | 13.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Belgium | 144 | 1.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Poland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Austria | 99 | 8.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Belgium | 89 | 0.7% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United States | Austria | 85 | 7.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Austria | 84 | 7.4% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Saudi Arabia | Austria | 52 | 4.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Austria | 42 | 3.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Austria | 6 | 0.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2026-05 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2026-05 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Poland’s supply of road diesel in 2026-05, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2026-05 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2026-03 to 2026-05.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Poland: crude not from imports (115,955 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- United States: no crude data (102,127 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Norway: no crude data (42,145 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Origin not reported: crude unknown (41,728 t): The statistics did not say which country these imports came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (13,149 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (2,474 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Imports, origin not reported (41,728 t): The statistics did not say which country these imports came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.