Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In October 2023, Poland's road diesel supply was 1,581 kt: 57% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Sweden (10%), Germany (8%) and Belgium (5%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (41%), Saudi Arabia (24%) and the United States (9%), and 11% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway642 kt (est. 41%)Saudi Arabia378 kt (est. 24%)United States136 kt (est. 9%)United Kingdom85 kt (est. 5%)Kazakhstan29 kt (est. 2%)Russia26 kt (est. 2%)Iraq20 kt (est. 1%)Other crude origins97 kt (est. 6%)Switzerland: no crude data48 kt (3%)Origin not reported: crude unknown33 kt (2%)United Kingdom: no crude data32 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports28 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported17 kt (1%)Smaller flows: no crude data12 kt (<1%)Poland (own refineries)900 kt (57%)Sweden152 kt (10%)Germany129 kt (8%)Belgium82 kt (5%)Netherlands51 kt (3%)Lithuania51 kt (3%)Switzerland48 kt (3%)Finland47 kt (3%)Czechia39 kt (2%)United Kingdom32 kt (2%)Other suppliers17 kt (1%)Imports, origin not reported33 kt (2%)Poland: road diesel supply1.58 Mt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Poland (own refineries)
- Sweden
- Germany
- Belgium
- Netherlands
- Lithuania
- Switzerland
- Finland
- Other (5)
- Norway642 kt (est. 41%)
- Saudi Arabia378 kt (est. 24%)
- United States136 kt (est. 9%)
- United Kingdom85 kt (est. 5%)
- Kazakhstan29 kt (est. 2%)
- Russia26 kt (est. 2%)
- Iraq20 kt (est. 1%)
- Other crude origins97 kt (est. 6%)
- Switzerland: no crude data48 kt (3%)
- Origin not reported: crude unknown33 kt (2%)
- United Kingdom: no crude data32 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports28 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported17 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: no crude data12 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Oct 2023)
377.6 thousand tonnes
est. 24% of Poland's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported378 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Poland (own refineries)356 kt (est. 94%)
- Lithuania15 kt (est. 4%)
- Germany5.2 kt (est. 1%)
and 2 more in the table above
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland (own refineries) | Poland: road diesel supply | 900,000 | 56.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Sweden | Poland: road diesel supply | 151,516 | 9.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Germany | Poland: road diesel supply | 129,013 | 8.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Belgium | Poland: road diesel supply | 82,029 | 5.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Poland: road diesel supply | 50,901 | 3.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Lithuania | Poland: road diesel supply | 50,900 | 3.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Switzerland | Poland: road diesel supply | 47,655 | 3.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Poland: road diesel supply | 47,108 | 3.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Czechia | Poland: road diesel supply | 39,363 | 2.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Imports, origin not reported | Poland: road diesel supply | 32,909 | 2.1% | Summed by usPublisher's import total minus the named partners. |
| United Kingdom | Poland: road diesel supply | 31,968 | 2.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Other suppliers | Poland: road diesel supply | 17,365 | 1.1% | Summed by usSum of the smaller suppliers' published imports. |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Poland (own refineries) | 458,123 | 50.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Poland (own refineries) | 356,396 | 39.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Sweden | 95,175 | 62.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Switzerland: no crude data | Switzerland | 47,655 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United States | Poland (own refineries) | 40,183 | 4.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 39,831 | 30.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Origin not reported: crude unknown | Imports, origin not reported | 32,909 | 100.0% | UnknownThe statistics did not say which country these imports came from. |
| United Kingdom: no crude data | United Kingdom | 31,968 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Norway | Finland | 31,439 | 66.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Poland (own refineries) | 28,319 | 3.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Sweden | 25,299 | 16.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Sweden | 23,785 | 15.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Germany | 23,691 | 18.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 22,245 | 27.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Poland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Russia | Czechia | 20,241 | 51.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Czechia's road diesel to Poland split by Czechia's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Germany | 17,150 | 13.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 16,652 | 32.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Germany | 15,759 | 12.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 15,290 | 30.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Poland (own refineries) | 14,985 | 1.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Norway | Belgium | 14,429 | 17.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Poland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 13,833 | 27.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Lithuania | 13,793 | 27.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Belgium | 13,635 | 16.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Poland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 12,068 | 23.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: no crude data | Other suppliers | 11,673 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United Kingdom | Germany | 11,340 | 8.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Belgium | 11,044 | 13.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Poland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Czechia | 10,149 | 25.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Czechia's road diesel to Poland split by Czechia's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 8,634 | 17.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Belgium | 8,303 | 10.1% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Iraq | Germany | 7,467 | 5.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Sweden | 7,257 | 4.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Finland | 6,480 | 13.8% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 6,051 | 11.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Belgium | 6,008 | 7.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Poland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Belgium | 5,868 | 7.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Poland split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Finland | 5,798 | 12.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Netherlands | 5,702 | 11.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Russia | Other suppliers | 5,280 | 92.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Other suppliers's road diesel to Poland split by Other suppliers's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Germany | 5,242 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Czechia | 4,940 | 12.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Czechia's road diesel to Poland split by Czechia's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Germany | 4,364 | 3.4% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Germany | 4,169 | 3.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Czechia | 2,605 | 6.6% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 2,227 | 4.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 2,091 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Poland (own refineries) | 1,994 | 0.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 1,946 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 1,718 | 3.4% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Other crude origins | Lithuania | 1,718 | 3.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Finland | 1,445 | 3.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 1,356 | 2.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Iraq | Czechia | 1,196 | 3.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Czechia's road diesel to Poland split by Czechia's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Netherlands | 668 | 1.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Belgium | 473 | 0.6% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Other suppliers | 282 | 4.9% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States | Czechia | 232 | 0.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Czechia's road diesel to Poland split by Czechia's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Other suppliers | 111 | 1.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Other suppliers's road diesel to Poland split by Other suppliers's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Other suppliers | 19 | 0.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Other suppliers's road diesel to Poland split by Other suppliers's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
2 flows with a share under 0.1% are not listed here. They are still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2023-10 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2023-10 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Poland’s supply of road diesel in 2023-10, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2023-10 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2023-08 to 2023-10.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Switzerland: no crude data (47,655 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Origin not reported: crude unknown (32,909 t): The statistics did not say which country these imports came from.
- United Kingdom: no crude data (31,968 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (27,744 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (16,991 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: no crude data (11,673 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Imports, origin not reported (32,909 t): The statistics did not say which country these imports came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.