Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In June 2025, Poland's road diesel supply was 1,706 kt: 63% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Germany (13%) and the Netherlands (8%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (33%), Saudi Arabia (23%) and the United States (7%), and 9% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway567 kt (est. 33%)Saudi Arabia389 kt (est. 23%)United States127 kt (est. 7%)United Kingdom114 kt (est. 7%)Algeria82 kt (est. 5%)Guyana56 kt (est. 3%)Nigeria55 kt (est. 3%)Other crude origins166 kt (est. 10%)United States: no crude data46 kt (3%)Poland: crude not from imports42 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported25 kt (1%)Poland: crude origin not reported21 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports14 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: no crude data1.7 kt (<1%)Poland (own refineries)1.08 Mt (63%)Germany222 kt (13%)Netherlands130 kt (8%)Sweden82 kt (5%)Finland66 kt (4%)United States46 kt (3%)Denmark43 kt (3%)Lithuania23 kt (1%)Hungary5.3 kt (<1%)Austria4.9 kt (<1%)Other suppliers1.8 kt (<1%)Poland: road diesel supply1.71 Mt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Poland (own refineries)
- Germany
- Netherlands
- Sweden
- Finland
- United States
- Denmark
- Lithuania
- Other (4)
- Norway567 kt (est. 33%)
- Saudi Arabia389 kt (est. 23%)
- United States127 kt (est. 7%)
- United Kingdom114 kt (est. 7%)
- Algeria82 kt (est. 5%)
- Guyana56 kt (est. 3%)
- Nigeria55 kt (est. 3%)
- Other crude origins166 kt (est. 10%)
- United States: no crude data46 kt (3%)
- Poland: crude not from imports42 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported25 kt (1%)
- Poland: crude origin not reported21 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports14 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: no crude data1.7 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Jun 2025)
389.1 thousand tonnes
est. 23% of Poland's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported389 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Poland (own refineries)375 kt (est. 96%)
- Lithuania8.2 kt (est. 2%)
- Netherlands3.3 kt (est. <1%)
and 3 more in the table above
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland (own refineries) | Poland: road diesel supply | 1,082,030 | 63.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Germany | Poland: road diesel supply | 221,929 | 13.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Poland: road diesel supply | 129,851 | 7.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Sweden | Poland: road diesel supply | 81,877 | 4.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Poland: road diesel supply | 65,813 | 3.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Poland: road diesel supply | 46,046 | 2.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Denmark | Poland: road diesel supply | 43,365 | 2.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Lithuania | Poland: road diesel supply | 23,182 | 1.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Hungary | Poland: road diesel supply | 5,302 | 0.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Austria | Poland: road diesel supply | 4,851 | 0.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Other suppliers | Poland: road diesel supply | 1,848 | 0.1% | Summed by usSum of the smaller suppliers' published imports. |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Poland (own refineries) | 392,834 | 36.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Poland (own refineries) | 375,213 | 34.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 100,726 | 45.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Poland (own refineries) | 72,846 | 6.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Poland (own refineries) | 59,975 | 5.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 50,716 | 77.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 47,062 | 36.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 46,046 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Nigeria | Poland (own refineries) | 44,069 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Poland (own refineries) | 43,145 | 4.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Poland: crude not from imports | Poland (own refineries) | 42,157 | 3.9% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Norway | Germany | 40,749 | 18.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Sweden | 39,835 | 48.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Poland (own refineries) | 31,041 | 2.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 29,067 | 22.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Germany | 26,944 | 12.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Germany | 25,138 | 11.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 22,055 | 17.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Poland: crude origin not reported | Poland (own refineries) | 20,749 | 1.9% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United States | Denmark | 19,653 | 45.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Poland split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 15,375 | 11.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Germany | 14,868 | 6.7% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Guyana | Sweden | 12,775 | 15.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Denmark | 11,986 | 27.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Poland split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Sweden | 11,036 | 13.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Denmark | 10,971 | 25.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States | Finland | 10,212 | 15.5% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 9,990 | 7.7% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United States | Sweden | 9,538 | 11.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 8,618 | 37.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 8,244 | 35.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Germany | 6,908 | 3.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Sweden | 5,210 | 6.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Germany | 5,130 | 2.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Finland | 4,885 | 7.4% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Other crude origins | Hungary | 4,492 | 84.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Poland split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Austria | 3,481 | 71.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Netherlands | 3,255 | 2.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Netherlands | 3,047 | 2.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 2,710 | 11.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Sweden | 2,599 | 3.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 1,938 | 8.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: no crude data | Other suppliers | 1,668 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Saudi Arabia | Germany | 1,467 | 0.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Lithuania | 942 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Austria | 916 | 18.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Sweden | 885 | 1.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Hungary | 810 | 15.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United Kingdom | Denmark | 755 | 1.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Poland split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 731 | 3.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Austria | 271 | 5.6% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Austria | 183 | 3.8% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Other crude origins | Other suppliers | 165 | 91.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Other suppliers's road diesel to Poland split by Other suppliers's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Other suppliers | 13 | 7.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Other suppliers's road diesel to Poland split by Other suppliers's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Other suppliers | 2 | 1.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
Source & method
Source Period 2025-06 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-06 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Poland’s supply of road diesel in 2025-06, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2025-06 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-04 to 2025-06.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- United States: no crude data (46,046 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Poland: crude not from imports (42,157 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (25,041 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Poland: crude origin not reported (20,749 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (13,670 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: no crude data (1,668 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.